Publications

Costs and returns in Rwandan smallholder agricultural production: Gross margins and profitability analyses

This paper explores crop commercialization among smallholder agricultural households in Rwanda from a cost and revenue perspective to determine profitability at the farm level. We use standard revenue and cost equations to assess the commercial viability of the smallholders. In general, we find that a household’s total crop production creates positive returns even if implicit costs, such as own family labor and fertilizer subsidies, are included. Specifically, over 80 percent of our sample households generated positive economic returns from farming— referred to as demonstrating a positive gross economic margin (GEM). However, if only crop market sales and market input costs are used in the calculations, only 40 percent of agricultural households generated positive returns—referred to as demonstrating a positive gross marketing margin (GMM). Most of the explanation for this difference is that the typical farm household sells only about one-third of its crop production by value. This outcome suggests that many agricultural households continue to focus on cultivating food crops for their own consumption and do not specialize in commercial production. This is to be expected in an economic context where input, credit, and commodity markets are still developing, production decisions are still shaped by high levels of weather and market risk, and production risk management options are limited, among many other factors. The results of this research provide a better understanding of how Rwandan smallholders might move towards higher value production, with the ultimate goal being to increase household revenues and welfare and accelerate the country’s economic transformation.

Assessing agricultural extension agent digital readiness in Rwanda

Effective agricultural extension and advisory services are a key component of efforts to achieve sustainable agricultural production, resilient livelihoods, and inclusive economic growth. These are all necessary elements for accelerating Rwanda’s agricultural transformation. Both extension and information and communication technologies (ICT) are important elements in Rwanda’s Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation. This paper examines the capacities of public and private agricultural extension agents in Rwanda and their readiness to use ICT in their work—that is, to be digitally equipped—and provides recommendations for enhancing agricultural extension capacities through expanding and effectively using ICT.
To examine capacities and readiness, we use a representative survey of 500 public and private extension agents in Rwanda, augmented by qualitative data from a literature review and key informant interviews. To assess agents’ ‘digital readiness,’ we create two indices focused on their digital experiences and attitudes toward digital modernization.

Rural income diversification in Rwanda: Opportunities and challenges

The Government of Rwanda continues to work to accelerate structural transformation to expand and diversify the country’s economy. High rural population density and small agricultural landholdings are driving workers from agricultural households to seek employment outside of farming. Using representative data on agricultural production and employment for rural households in Rwanda from 2022, this research evaluates the opportunities rural households have to diversify their labor portfolios. We find that, rather than nonfarm household enterprises developing to meet greater rural service and goods demand, agriculture wage labor is the dominant source of off-own-farm employment. However, such informal agricultural wage labor is seen as low-productivity work and is among the lowest paid. Among nonfarm employment options, nonfarm businesses generate less income than nonagricultural wage labor, likely reflecting high barriers to entrepreneurship and low demand for off-farm services in rural areas.

In contrast to employment profiles from other low-income countries, we find that the probability of a worker from an agricultural household in Rwanda engaging in rural, off-farm wage labor decreases as household welfare increases. Agricultural households that have workers seeking to hire out their labor tend to have the smallest landholdings, while households that hire in labor have the largest landholdings. Additionally, households with a higher share of members who completed primary education are less likely to hire out their labor, especially for agriculture wage work. These results suggest that programs that offer support services to agricultural households, such as financial services and affordable and relevant education, may be important in incentivizing these households to engage in entrepreneurship and form their own businesses or to seek wage employment in more remunerative sectors than agriculture.

Real-time market price monitoring: Current dynamics in southern Rwanda

Recent collaborative CGIAR research has developed a prototype for tracking district-level costs of a healthy diet using monthly eSoko data.1 High frequency monitoring of diets allows for near real-time generation of insights on price impacts on diet costs. The temporal richness of this data allows for immediate analytics of current food system events. This research provides an analysis of district-level price movements of healthy diet compositions, as well as food prices that compose the diet. We use this prototype to demonstrate how eSoko data could be used for monitoring an economic shock and how to evaluate the effects in near real time. The general goal is to demonstrate a potential early warning system that could improve the menu of policy choices for enhanced resilience.

Synopsis: Identifying farm typologies in Rwandan agriculture: A framework for improving targeted interventions

Research from a recent IFPRI agricultural survey indicates that there is a broad spectrum of commercial engagement by Rwandan farmers. While this continuum is important for understanding commercialization, grouping farmers by relevant commonalities further improves our knowledge of how different groups engage in markets. Moving beyond simple subsistence and commercialized farmer dichotomies, this study provides a more nuanced understanding by grouping smallholder farmers into types, or typologies, based on 35 common characteristics that are both consistent within these groups and relatively diverse between them. Specifically, this analysis identifies five types of Rwandan farmers, in two broad groups, that disaggregates rural households into meaningful categories for varied potential responses to economic opportunities as well as potential strategic interventions.

Synopsis: Agricultural Mechanization in Rwanda

Optimal agricultural mechanization strategies in Rwanda can be better informed by a closer assessment of diverse production environments and experiences in other countries with similar topography. The findings from Rwanda’s latest agricultural surveys, review of recent experiences in countries with rugged terrain and smallholder farming systems similar to Rwanda and reviewing mechanization support strategies from other countries suggest that identifying mechanization technologies suitable for different types of farms, promoting greater private-sector innovations while focusing on the relevant public goods aspect of mechanization is the most promising way forward. Key findings include the following:
• Variations in agroecology and cropping systems, irrigated/rainfed systems, farm size, and labor use intensity, among other factors, characterize the key types of mechanization use in Rwanda.
• In the medium term, smallholders cultivating rainfed maize and legumes, in addition to irrigated rice, can benefit from the use of tractors, as well as irrigation pumps.
• However, farm wages may still be too low and tractor-hiring fees may still be too high in Rwanda to induce a shift to mechanization in the short term.
• Policy support for mechanization can focus on improving the understanding of mechanization needs among each type of farmers identified, knowledge of suitable machines, and required skills for their operations and maintenance.
• Developing competitive markets and supply networks for promising machines, parts, and repair services at a viable and integrated market scale is also important.

Synopsis: Crop commercialization in Rwanda: Current market participation and drivers

As Rwanda emerges from the effects of COVID-19 and global price shocks caused by the Russia/Ukrainian conflict, there is an opportunity to focus on agricultural fundamentals to drive its economic transformation. One aspect of the transformation is how farm households are engaging in crop commercialization. This policy note outlines basic findings and suggested recommendations derived from a 2022 Rwandan commercialization household survey. Our basic unit of analysis is total crop sold divided by total value produced, averaged at either the household or individual crop level. Key findings include:
 Approximately 20% of our sampled smallholder households do not sell any crops. However, contrary to a subsistence/commercial farm dichotomy, most households sell on a broad continuum ranging from 1 – 100% with an average of 33% of their total crop production marketed.
 Crop value per hectare increases with greater marketed sales, indicating that farmers switch from lower value food crops (e.g. beans, cassava, maize) to cash crops such as fruits and vegetables where they market higher percentages.
 Crop value per hectare is not correlated with land size, revealing that crop choices drive value and not increasing land-related economies of scale. This finding underscores the pivotal role of crop selection in determining agricultural productivity and economic returns, rather than mere expansion of land holdings.
 Irrigation, land size, hiring labor and input purchases increase market participation as well as percentage of sales. Conversely, a larger family size has a negative effect on both.

Identifying farm typologies in Rwandan agriculture: A framework for improving targeted interventions

This paper explores the broad spectrum of commercial engagement by Rwandan farmers by grouping farmers according to characteristics of the head of household, the degree of commercialization of their farms, size of livestock holdings and other factors.

We use statistical methodologies, including factor and cluster analysis, combined with existing knowledge of the agricultural sector to define five types of Rwandan farmers, separated into two broad groups. The first group (Group A) includes three types broadly classified as less wealthy, less commercialized, with a net negative gross margin. Within this group the three types of farmers include: Type 1—Less commercialized older male headed households with larger families, Type 2—Better educated, youth headed households, who are more market oriented but have smaller land holdings, Type 3—Older female headed households who produce relatively lower agricultural production value relative to their assets owned.

The second group (Group B) comprises two types of farmers. This group are wealthier, sell more crops with positive gross margins and larger landholdings. More specifically, farm type 4 is commercialized with higher access to agricultural extension services and inputs and farm type 5, also highly commercialized, but has significant livestock holdings as well.

Taken together, these two groups, and five farm types, provide a framework to aid in understanding how commercialization takes place in smallholder Rwandan agriculture. This framework may also help in understanding how potential interventions would be received by various types of Rwanda farmers, thereby facilitating more efficient targeting of agricultural interventions.

Crop commercialization in Rwanda: Current market participation and drivers

In this paper, we explore the current levels and participation of crop commercialization by Rwandan smallholder farmers. Our basic unit of analysis is total crop sales divided by the total value of crop production, either at the household or specific crop level. Overall, our findings suggest that approximately 80 percent of farmers participate in crop market sales and sell an average of 33 percent of their total production. However, there is a wide variety of percentage sales by crop and, in general, higher-valued crops are sold by more commercialized farm households. We also find that value of crop production per hectare rises with greater commercialization, suggesting that developing greater market commercialization, particularly with more valuable crops, may increase household incomes and aid in the economic transformation.

Agricultural mechanization policy options in Rwanda

This paper summarizes general demand- and supply-side issues for agricultural mechanization based on recent studies that focus on experiences and evidence from both Africa and Asia. The paper pro vides typologies of agricultural mechanization in Rwanda along with policy options within the context of its current mechanization support strategies. Provincial variations in agroecology and cropping systems, irrigated/rainfed systems, farm size, and labor use intensity, among other factors, characterize the key types of mechanization use in Rwanda. Support for mechanization in Rwanda can be broadly tailored to (a) irrigated medium-scale farmers in the Eastern province and Kigali; (b) rainfed medium-scale farmers in the Eastern and Southern provinces; (c) rainfed, small-scale highland farmers in the Northern province; and (d) irrigated small-scale farmers in the Western province. Recent experiences in other countries with rugged terrain and smallholder farming systems similar to Rwanda suggest that significant growth in the use of tractors is possible in the medium term among smallholders cultivating rainfed maize and legumes, in addition to irrigated rice. However, farm wages may still be too low in Rwanda and tractor-hiring fees may still be too high to induce a shift to mechanization in the short term. Therefore, it may be advisable for policy support for mechanization to focus on improving the understanding of mechanization needs among each type of farmers identified, knowledge of suitable machines, and required skills for their operations and maintenance. Such efforts should also balance the need to develop competitive markets and supply networks for promising machines, parts, and repair services at a viable and integrated market scale.

Synopsis: Rwanda smallholder agricultural commercialization survey: Overview using selective categorical variables

Increased commercialization of smallholder farmers is a major emphasis of Rwanda’s PSTA4 and will continue with PSTA5, as well as other policy documents related to agriculture. Although PSTA4 sought to increase the profitability of smallholder production, efforts to address accelerating commercialization were limited due to the absence of data and analysis on returns to commercial production systems. Relatively little was known about smallholder agricultural decision-making and the associated costs and returns to production systems among these farmers. This policy note introduces an important research initiative that will explore various aspects of commercialization by Rwandan smallholder farmers and is meant as a general introduction to smallholder commercialization. In subsequent research papers, more detailed studies based on these initial findings will contribute to an improved understanding of agricultural smallholders by providing (1) more nuanced analysis of commercial farmer typologies, (2) estimates of returns to commercial production systems across multiple farmers typologies, and (3) recommendations designed to improve interventions in smallholder commercialization.

This brief provides a summary of the results obtained from the 2022 Smallholder Farmer Commercialization Survey (IFPRI 2024). Designed to be representative at the national and provincial levels, ten households were surveyed in 202 villages resulting in a total of 2,020 interviewed households. The survey covered a wide range of topics including: 1) household demographics; 2) migration, household assets and house conditions, and shocks; 3) household farm characteristics; 4) household expenditures (consumption and non-consumption), and 5) household income sources. The survey instrument was developed using other IFPRI surveys and was referenced to the 2020 AHS and the 2016-2017 EICV5 surveys from NISR.

Rwanda smallholder agriculture commercialization survey: Overview using selected categorical variables

This report provides a comprehensive statistical overview of agricultural household data collected by IFPRI from a smallholder commercialization survey in late 2022. Sampled to be representative to the provincial level, ten households were surveyed in 202 villages for a total of 2,020 households interviewed. The survey covers a wide range of topics including household demographics, agricultural farm holdings, input use, crop choice, levels of commercialization and other non-farm sources of income. The statistical tables are generally presented by principal categorical variables of interest which include provinces, gender and age of household head (youth/mature), as well as size of land holdings. These designations are meant to provide general insights into the current state of agricultural households in Rwanda. Building on this report, future research, on more specific topics of interest, will be performed to build a more comprehensive understanding of agricultural household economic behavior for broader understanding as well as potential policy engagement.

Synopsis: Prioritizing value chains for achieving Rwanda’s agrifood system transformation: A diagnostic of the agrifood system

Rwanda’s impressive economic growth over the past two decades has been accompanied by significant structural change in the broad economy and the agrifood system in particular. This note summarizes key results from a recent diagnostic of Rwanda’s agrifood system transformation, examining the effectiveness of productivity-led growth in different agricultural value chains for promoting development outcomes related to poverty, growth, employment, diet quality, and hunger. The findings show that value chains differ in their effectiveness in promoting these different development outcomes. The wheat and sorghum value chain, for example, has strong anti-poverty effects and is effective at reducing hunger, but is less effective at increasing jobs. Trade-offs will emerge as no single value chain is most effective at achieving every desired outcome; therefore, promoting a few value chains jointly will diversify agrifood system growth and help achieve multiple development outcomes simultaneously.

Synopsis: Women’s empowerment in Rwandan agriculture: A baseline assessment in the context of Rwanda’s gender and youth mainstreaming strategy and the fourth strategic plan for agricultural transformation

Rwanda is a recognized leader in the region and the world in terms of women’s empowerment. However, no country has yet achieved full gender equality, resulting in untapped potential for improvement. The findings from the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) baseline survey conducted in 2019 for the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI) indicate that women and men in Rwanda have both relatively high levels of empowerment across different agricultural domains, while many women are as empowered as men in their households, some gender disparities remain.

Women’s empowerment in Rwandan agriculture: A baseline assessment in the context of Rwanda’s gender and youth mainstreaming strategy and the fourth strategic plan for agricultural transformation

Rwanda is a recognized leader in the region and in the world in terms of women’s empowerment. However, no country has yet achieved full gender equality, resulting in untapped potential. The findings from the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) baseline survey conducted in 2019 for the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI), indicated that women and men in Rwanda both have relatively high levels of empowerment across different agricultural do mains, and most women are as empowered as men in their households. This working paper dis cusses the findings further and in the context of MINAGRI’s Gender and Youth Mainstreaming Strategy that was also launched in 2019, as well as the Fourth Strategic Plan for Agricultural Transformation (PSTA 4). Key findings include the following. • Compared to other countries in the region, women in Rwanda have relatively greater access to financial services and a relatively lower time burden in agriculture. • However, when compared to men in Rwanda, inequalities persist. Women are significantly less likely than men to access financial services, participate in the marketing of agricultural commodities, access extension services, and spend their time on productive (rather than reproductive) work. By adapting and promoting innovative and gender-inclusive financial products, shifting gendered cultural norms, providing extension to both the household head and the spouse, and investing in time-saving technologies and innovations, there are opportunities to reduce the gender gap in agriculture and increase agricultural productivity. Realization of these outcomes will depend partly on the implementation of the Gender and Youth Mainstreaming Strategy and PSTA 4, and partly on coordination with other gender-transformative programs in Rwanda.

Policy options for fertilizer subsidy reforms in Rwanda: A simulation-based analysis and synthesis of prior studies

Agricultural input subsidies are a prominent feature in the 2018-2024 Strategic Plan for Agricultural Transformation (PSTA 4), which is designed and implemented by the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI). By reducing the cost of improved seed and inorganic fertilizers, subsidies are designed to accelerate the use of these productivity-enhancing inputs, thereby increasing agricultural yields and output, increasing rural incomes while reducing food prices, and improving food security in line with PSTA 4’s targets. However, questions arise about whether the current input subsidy rates and levels are sufficient to increase crop production and meet the PSTA 4 targets, and whether the subsidy system can be expanded in the current economic climate and fiscal situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and spike in global fertilizer prices. This paper examines the impact of an increase in the price of fertilizer in Rwanda using seasonal production data from National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) in a microsimulation model aimed at three priority crops—maize, rice, and Irish potato—and the three main fertilizers in use—diammonium phosphate (DAP), urea, and NPK.

Rwanda: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on poverty and food security

Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen rapidly in recent months, driven in large part by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Other factors have contributed to the crisis, such as export bans and continued supply chain disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, between June 2021 and April 2022, the global prices of palm oil and wheat increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively. At the same time, the price of fertilizer doubled, while crude oil and natural gas prices have also risen substantially. However, wide variation also exists across commodities, with real maize prices increasing by only 11 percent, and rice prices declining by 13 percent (Figure 1).

Synopsis: Rwanda’s food systems transformation: A diagnostic of the public policy landscape shaping the transformation process

As Rwanda journeys towards a broad-based social and economic transformation, there are opportunities for the country’s food systems to become a key driver on that journey. This idea has attracted considerable attention in the national consultations conducted in the run-up to the United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS) in September 2021, at the summit itself, in the post-summit actions that Rwanda is now pursuing, and in a series of prior case studies on Rwanda’s food system (Adolph et al. 2021; Guijt et al. 2021; Malabo Montpellier Panel 2021). This note summarizes a recent diagnostic of Rwanda’s food systems and the policy landscape that shapes them. Emphasis is placed on six inter-related clusters: diet quality and nutrition security; livelihoods equity; environmental resilience; agricultural productivity; infrastructure capacity; and financing and investment. Overall findings suggest an opportunity for a tangible shift in how public policy in Rwanda approaches its food systems and how the systems contribute to the broader national transformation process. We offer several policy recommendations to support the design of a coherent country strategy and policy framework. First, strengthen existing entities and mechanisms, and innovate on them. Second, develop a national food systems transformation strategy that is integrative, multi-sectoral, and action-oriented. Third, innovate on existing programs. Fourth, allow for learning through both success and failure. Fifth, invest in rigorous impact evaluation.

Rwanda’s food systems transformation: A diagnostic of the public policy landscape shaping the transformation process

This paper provides a diagnostic of Rwanda’s food systems and the policy landscape that shapes it. It aims to inform national and local conversations on Rwanda’s food systems transformation—an idea that has attracted considerable attention in national consultations conducted in the run-up to the United Nations Food Systems Summit in September 2021, at the summit itself, and in the post-summit actions that Rwanda is now pursuing. A food system comprises the full range of actors and activities originating from agriculture, livestock, forestry, or fisheries, as well as the broader economic, societal, and natural environments in which they operate. An inclusive and sustainable food systems transformation is a process of growth and development that is profitable for the full range of individual actors engaged in the system, beneficial for society including marginalized and vulnerable groups, and advantageous for the natural environment. Rwanda’s journey towards a food systems transformation is well captured in Vision 2050, the National Strategy for Transformation (NST 1), and strategic plans for sectors such as agriculture, health, nutrition, commerce, and the environment. Their priorities are echoed in ongoing programs and investments of the government, its development partners, the private sector, and civil society. Nonetheless, there are still challenges facing Rwanda’s efforts to sustain and accelerate progress along this journey. Efforts to overcome these challenges call for a deeper and more significant shift in thinking—informed by the food systems perspective—that is highlighted by stronger multi-sectoral approaches to problem-solving. Overall findings suggest an opportunity for a tangible shift in how public policy in Rwanda approaches its food systems and how the systems contribute to the broader national transformation process. This means addressing how balances are struck—and tradeoffs are managed—between and among agriculture, nutrition, health, and the environment in the face of a climate crisis. It also means giving greater attention to the demand-side drivers in Rwanda’s food system, recognizing that singularly focused supply-side strategies rarely succeed in isolation. Finally, it means deepening the integration of policies and policy actors in the design and implementation phases of interventions that shape the food system. We offer several recommendations to translate abstract ideas into a coherent and focused set of actions in the policy space. 1. Strengthen existing entities and mechanisms rather than create new ones. 2. Develop a national food systems transformation strategy that is integrative, multi-sectoral, and action-oriented. 3. Innovate on existing programs. 4. Allow for learning through both success and failure. 5. Invest in rigorous impact evaluation. These actions aim to strengthen the policy environment that enables a truly broad-based food systems transformation. This enabling environment is itself an outcome of broad-based national conversations, integration across sectors, domains, and levels; and the encouragement of policy and program innovation.

Expected impacts of increases in international prices of fertilizer in Rwanda: Estimates from a microsimulation

International fertilizer prices have increased rapidly since 2020 due to multiple factors. This note assesses the impact of these price increases on Rwanda’s agriculture sector, with an emphasis on implications for crop production, subsidy costs, and the Government of Rwanda’s agricultural budget. Using data from the Seasonal Agricultural Surveys, we simulate the impact of increasing fertilizer prices on fertilizer demand and use, which in turn affects fertilizer value-cost ratios at the plot level and, ultimately, maize, rice, and Irish potato output and the Government’s fertilizer subsidy bill. Findings indicate the following • At current subsidy rates and market prices, national output across all seasons could decrease by up to 3 percent for maize, 2 percent for rice, and 12 percent for Irish potato under strong assumptions about farmers’ sensitivity to fertilizer prices. Weaker assumptions about their sensitivity result in much smaller decreases in output. • At current subsidy rates and market prices, the fertilizer subsidy bill may increase from 7 percent of MINAGRI’s budget—inclusive of funds earmarked for districts—to 12 percent. Ultimately, the policy challenge will be to determine whether a return to the original subsidy levels and rates is feasible and under what conditions. In the short term, volatility in international fertilizer prices may continue, particularly in light of the conflict in Ukraine, making it necessary to maintain the current subsidy regime. But I the medium term, it is possible to move towards market prices for fertilizer without dramatically affecting output, thereby providing more fiscal space for other priorities.

Synopsis: Public investment for Rwanda's inclusive agricultural transformation: A midterm assessment of the contribution of PSTA4

Rwanda’s fourth Strategic Plan for the Transformation of Agriculture (PSTA 4), which extends from 2018 to 2024, is currently at its midpoint. This note highlights the contribution of PSTA 4 in its first half (2018–2021) to four key development outcomes: economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, and diet quality improvement.

Public investment prioritization for Rwanda’s inclusive agricultural transformation: Evidence from rural investment and policy analysis modeling

As Rwanda is expected to return to its rapid growth trajectory following the COVID-19 pandemic, agriculture will continue to play a central role in the structural transformation of the entire economy. To this end, the Government of Rwanda continues to invest in the agricultural sector by building on Strategic Plans for the Transformation of Agriculture (PSTAs) that began in the early 2000s. The challenging question is how to prioritize public expenditures across a broad portfolio of policies and programs. Ambitious plans, whether in the short or long term, require difficult decisions. The prioritization of public investment becomes even more complex as Rwanda’s structural transformation advances and as new investments—beyond the farm—become critically important for the agricultural sector. The structural transformation process itself means that as agriculture becomes more integrated with the rest of the economy, public resource allocations need to address a wider range of issues across the entire food system; these include nutrition-sensitive food production systems, inclusive value chain development, nonfarm rural enterprise development, and climate-resilient sustainable intensification of both crops and livestock.
This study provides evidence that is designed to assist the Government of Rwanda in its selection of agricultural policy, investment, and expenditure portfolios that reflect the country’s broad focus on its food system and structural transformation. This process of prioritization will need to incorporate multiple public investments targeting multiple development outcomes and will need to be grounded in the costeffective use of public resources in a largely market-led transformation process. This data-driven and evidence-based approach must critically underpin an informed investment prioritization process that helps achieve ambitious targets in an environment constrained by limited public resources. The study uses the Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide model developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), with contributions from colleagues at the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI), the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN) and the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR). The study draws on data from multiple sources as well as expert insights to inform the application of RIAPA’s Agricultural Investment for Data Analyzer (AIDA) module as a tool to measure the impacts of alternative public expenditure options on multiple development outcomes. Using this integrated modeling framework, the study links agricultural and rural development spending to four specific outcomes: economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, and diet quality improvement; at the same time, it considers the synergies and tradeoffs associated with the different investment options in the transformation process.
The paper first assesses the contribution of public expenditures to agricultural and rural development under the fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 4) that extends between 2018 and 2024. These findings are important, given the fact that since the beginning of PSTA 4, the budget allocated to MINAGRI (measured in constant prices) has stagnated. Our results suggest that increased spending on agriculture is well justified and that such spending is essential if the Government of Rwanda is to achieve its long-term development goals.

Synopsis: Public investment prioritization for Rwanda's agricultural transformation: Benefits of an increase in public spending on agriculture under PSTA4

Although public spending under the fourth Strategic Plan for the Transformation of Agriculture 2018– 2021 (PSTA 4) is generally well structured and cost-effective, funding has been largely stagnant— and even declining, when measured in constant prices—during PSTA’s first four years. This note summarizes the effects of a modest reallocation of public spending under PSTA 4 towards greater cost-effectiveness, as well as a modest increase in PSTA 4 spending. Results draw on an economywide modeling tool designed to prioritize public resources around four key development goals: economic growth, employment creation, poverty reduction, and diet quality improvement.

A unique opportunity for food systems transformation in Rwanda

Rwanda has made remarkable progress in the past two decades, highlighted by rapid economic growth and sharp reductions in poverty. During this period, the country emerged as a leader among sub-Saharan African countries in promoting innovation, gender equality, and an enabling business environment. The government remains strongly committed to ambitious development goals, efficiency and transparency in implementation, strong collaboration with the private sector, and diplomacy through regional and global partnerships.

Rwanda’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation

This paper assesses the structure of Rwanda’s current and evolving agrifood system and its contribution to national development. The paper reiterates the point that Rwanda’s agrifood system stretches well beyond primary agriculture and creates jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. While off-farm components of Rwanda’s agrifood system have generally grown more rapidly than primary agriculture in recent years, growth varies across value chains of the agrifood system in the studied period. The growth diagnostic in this paper reveals that it is domestic markets that have driven the recent growth in Rwanda’s AFS other than exports. The paper’s forward-looking analysis assesses potentially differential impacts of value-chain development efforts on broad development outcomes. The analysis measures the synergies and trade-offs of value-chain development in the context of an inclusive agricultural transformation. Such analysis is conducted using the Rwanda Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – an adaption of IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model to the Rwandan context.
The modeling results indicate that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving development goals and there are significant trade-offs among different development goals from promoting a specific value chain. The value chains that make a larger contribution to growth or job creation are not necessarily effective in reducing poverty or improving dietary quality – for example, value chains for coffee and tea – while value chains that play an important role in improving dietary quality may contribute less to job creation – such as vegetables or fruits. While there is no single value chain that can achieve all development goals effectively, it is possible to select a diversified set of value chains that complement each other in achieving different development goals. This latter strategy is a more realistic approach to growth and development.

Assessing market price dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic in Rwanda

The COVID-19 pandemic and the economic measures taken to prevent its spread led to a global recession in 2020 that was expected to cause significant increases in poverty and food insecurity in many countries. Households were expected to experience a “double whammy” of decreased incomes and rising food prices. This examines whether food prices rose in Rwanda since the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020. The main findings from this price analysis suggest the following. • Food prices did not significantly rise (or fall) during the COVID-19 pandemic in Rwanda. • Prices of staple foods (cereals and other starches) declined following the pandemic’s onset in March 2020, while the prices of pulses (the second largest food consumption group in Rwanda after staple foods) experienced a seasonal spike at the end of 2021, but returned to below pre-pandemic levels throughout 2021. • For most food groups, price trends in each province generally followed the national price trends during the pandemic, with the exception of poultry and eggs. • Nationally, prices of poultry and eggs declined after the beginning of the pandemic, but these prices vary significantly by province, with prices in the Northern Province remaining above pre-pandemic levels and prices in all other provinces falling since the pandemic, with prices in Kigali City falling the most. Overall, these results suggest that households in Rwanda were not hit by the “double whammy” of decreased incomes and rising food prices, since food prices remained stable Rather, they may instead have only suffered from decreased incomes. These findings suggest that continued efforts to expand Rwanda’s social protection programs are needed to boost household purchasing power and ensure that households are able to consume more – and more nutritious – foods.

Institutionalizing farmer field schools: Twigire Muhinzi National Extension System in Rwanda

Investing in farmers – or agriculture human capital – is crucial to addressing challenges in our agri-food systems. A global study carried out by the FAO Investment Centre and the International Food Research Institute, with support from the CGIAR Research Programme on Policies, Institutions and Markets and the FAO Research and Extension Unit, looks at agriculture human capital investments, from trends to promising initiatives. One of the nine featured case studies is the Twigire Muhinzi National Extension System in Rwanda. Twigire Muhinzi is the government’s homegrown, decentralized and farmer-oriented national system based on two complementary types of farmer-to-farmer extension approaches: farmer promoters and farmer field schools. The model showcases how an extension approach can improve farmer skills, knowledge and empowerment and thus lead to enhanced adoption of relevant technologies and practices. In Rwanda, mainstreaming the farmer field school approach into the national extension system along with financial support from public-private partnerships contributed to its scaling up. This publication is part of the Country Investment Highlights series under the FAO Investment Centre's Knowledge for Investment (K4I) programme.

Assessment of factors affecting the decision of smallholder farmers to use alternative maize storage technologies in Gatsibo District-Rwanda

Storage is an important aspect of food security in developing countries. Therefore, it is crucial for farmers to have access to sustainable storage technologies to cope with storage losses. Maize is an important staple and commercial food in Rwanda, but maize farmers are still being challenged by storage losses because of the lack of proper storage facilities. It is in that regard that advanced maize storage technology, notably hermetic maize storage technology, has been introduced in Rwanda in 2012. However, since its introduction, the adoption rate is low among smallholder maize farmers. Understanding the factors influencing farmers’ choice of alternative maize storage technology could provide Rwandan policymakers with important information for designing policies and programs aimed at reducing maize post-harvest losses to enhance household food security. This study used a multivariate probit model on a randomly selected cross-sectional sample of 301 smallholder maize farmers from the Gatsibo District of Rwanda to take part. The results revealed that the common maize storage technologies used among smallholder farmers were polypropylene sacks with and without chemicals, hermetic bags, and silos. Only 41% of respondents used hermetic maize storage technology. The model results showed that membership in a farmer group, access to credit, the quantity of maize produced, access to training, and selling maize soon after it dries, were the major factors influencing the decision of smallholder farmers to use alternative maize storage technologies. The study recommends that the policymakers and other stakeholders in post-harvest loss reduction should support the dissemination of advanced storage technologies to facilitate access. The government should support farmer acquisition of post-harvest maize loss reduction technologies either through subsidization of hermetic bags or provision of cheap credit.

Synopsis: Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Rwanda: A microsimulation approach

In Rwanda, as elsewhere, different types of households experienced the economic effects of COVID-19 differently. We use a microsimulation approach to show the importance of these differences to better understand COVID-19’s impacts on their income and poverty status. Main results: Nationally, during the lockdown period between March and May 2020, the simulation results estimate declines in household income by 33 percent on average. The urban population experienced the largest declines, averaging 40 percent during this period. Unlike patterns seen with other shocks, middle-income households experienced the sharpest declines in income during the lockdown of an estimated 33 to 35 percent. The share of individuals falling into poverty was highest among those in urban, middle income (Ubudehe 2) households (27 percent). However, the greatest absolute number of individuals in poverty remained concentrated in rural areas during the lockdown. Poor individuals in the lowest expenditure quintile remain in the most severe poverty, with average expenditures during the lockdown estimated at 54 percent below the poverty line. Under both the fast and slow post-COVID economic recovery scenarios used in the simulations, household incomes nearly return to pre-COVID levels for all household categories by the end of 2020. However, these results do not capture the potential longterm impacts of the substantial shocks of the pandemic to incomes, assets, and individual wellbeing. These modeling results suggest that targeting should be a central component of the design and implementation of social protection programs and economic recovery policies to support a diverse set of beneficiaries. These beneficiaries include rural farming households and poor households, as well as nonagricultural household, and households in the middle expenditure quintiles.

Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Rwanda: A microsimulation approach

In Rwanda, as in other countries, different types of households will experience the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic differently. We use a microsimulation approach to highlight the importance of these differences and to draw attention to the diversified livelihood strategies of Rwandan households in order to fully understand COVID-19’s impacts on their income and poverty status. Our approach complements macro-level assessments of COVID-19’s economic impacts, focusing on the contribution of the income sources, asset holdings, and location (urban/rural) of households to understanding these differential effects.

Synopsis: Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach

Rwanda’s response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences of the actions taken are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We used economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda. In this brief, we present a synopsis of the results of this analysis. • During the six-week lockdown that began in March 2020, we estimate Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation. • Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of economic recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1 to 1.6 billion). • While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a no-COVID situation. • During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points over the pre-COVID situation. While these figures are encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown. Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s economic recovery will depend critically on expanding Rwanda’s social protection programs, supporting enterprises of all sizes, providing broad assistance to the agri-food system, and restoring international trade.

Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri-food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach

Rwanda’s response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We use economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda. - Results show that during the six-week lockdown that began in March, Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation in the same period. - Results further show that Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of the recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1–1.6 billion). - While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a noCOVID situation. - During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points. While these figures may be encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown. Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s recovery will depend critically on the expansion of Rwanda’s social protection programs, boosting enterprises of all sizes, support to the agri-food system, and restoration of international trade.

Rwanda: Desk study of extension and advisory services

Rwanda is a unique African country with a unique history. Like many other sub-Saharan African countries, agriculture is the key livelihood for the majority of the nation’s people. Rwanda is also one of the most densely-populated countries in the world, and there are many challenges for rural agriculture: access to land, access and high cost of agricultural inputs, small average landholdings, soil erosion and an undercapitalized private sector. Despite these barriers, Rwanda’s agricultural sector has produced significant agricultural growth since the 1994 genocide, taking advantage of the many opportunities that the country’s agricultural sector has including good technical capacity in both the private and public sector, two to three cropping seasons per year, manageable access to urban markets for most areas, good governmental support for ICT and business, lower levels of corruption compared to its neighbors, and opportunities for export to other countries in the East African Community. However, poverty levels, while declining, are still high.

Engaging young agripreneurs: Options to include youth in private sector extension and advisory services in Rwanda and Uganda

Engaging young agripreneurs in private sector extension and advisory services (EAS) is critical for livelihoods in rural areas where millions of youth are unemployed and face many barriers to entry into agriculture. A study in Rwanda and Uganda examined this and found seven models to engage youth in EAS as providers or recipients of the services: (1) training youth to become agripreneurs; (2) village agents; (3) youth-led and other fee-based EAS providers; (4) paraprofessional EAS workers; (5) EAS internships; (6) credit and financial services; and (7) youth agripreneurship awards (Table 1). The models served different purposes, and all seven provided important benefits to youth. Achieving sustainability and scale were key measures of success that fee-based EAS and village agents models achieved while having high benefits to youth through earnings. Internships had high participation rates for women, although the potential for scaling may be limited. Training youth to become agripreneurs, though potentially of high value to many poor youth, relied on government and donor assistance. Paraprofessional EAS workers had modest benefits in terms of earnings and some potential for being sustainable and scalable. Credit also had high potential but appeared to be difficult to make sustainable and scalable. Youth agripreneurship awards were important and low-cost but relied on the generosity of donors.

Engaging young agripreneurs: Options to include youth in private sector extension and advisory services in Rwanda and Uganda: Executive summary

Engaging young agripreneurs in private sector extension and advisory services (EAS) is critical for livelihoods in rural areas where millions of youth are unemployed and face many barriers to entry into agriculture. A study in Rwanda and Uganda examined this and found seven models to engage youth in EAS as providers or recipients of the services: (1) training youth to become agripreneurs; (2) village agents; (3) youth-led and other fee-based EAS providers; (4) paraprofessional EAS workers; (5) EAS internships; (6) credit and financial services; and (7) youth agripreneurship awards (Table 1). The models served different purposes, and all seven provided important benefits to youth. Achieving sustainability and scale were key measures of success that fee-based EAS and village agents models achieved while having high benefits to youth through earnings. Internships had high participation rates for women, although the potential for scaling may be limited. Training youth to become agripreneurs, though potentially of high value to many poor youth, relied on government and donor assistance. Paraprofessional EAS workers had modest benefits in terms of earnings and some potential for being sustainable and scalable. Credit also had high potential but appeared to be difficult to make sustainable and scalable. Youth agripreneurship awards were important and low-cost but relied on the generosity of donors.

Assessing the coverage of biofortified foods: Development and testing of methods and indicators in Musanze, Rwanda

Biofortification is a promising approach to increase micronutrient intakes, especially among populations that are hard to reach with other interventions. Information on the coverage of biofortified foods is needed to ascertain potential for impact, understand program performance, and identify bottlenecks. In this study, we aimed to develop and test methods and indicators for assessing household coverage of biofortified foods.

Policy atlas on food and nutrition security: Rwanda

This report is the final outcome of various knowledge products and training material, usually labelled as “printed eAtlas”, which have been developed and shared with Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) under the Voice for Change Partnership (V4CP) programme.

African commitments for agricultural development goals and milestones for Rwanda

The study developed a results framework to analyze Rwanda’s progress towards selected CAADP/Malabo, SDGs and Agenda 2063 goals. A Computable General Equilibrium model linked to an income distribution Micro-Simulation model were used to identify priority investment areas for accelerated agricultural growth, poverty and inequality reduction. The current investment trend simulated in the baseline scenario would leave Rwanda off-track to meet these objectives. The analysis of alternative agricultural investment scenarios shows that enhancing the role of the private sector in agriculture will be critical in curbing supply side constraints. The government plays a central role by creating an environment and making the sector more attractive to private investors. Developments outside of the agricultural sector and social protection will be critical to further reduce poverty. Productivity remains one of the major challenges but also one of the most effective solutions for accelerated agricultural growth in Rwanda. Agricultural investments should be designed considering the agricultural value-chain.

Increased iron status during a feeding trial of iron-biofortified beans increases physical work efficiency in Rwandan women

Background Iron-biofortified staple foods can improve iron status and resolve iron deficiency. However, whether improved iron status from iron biofortification can improve physical performance remains unclear. Objective This study aimed to examine whether changes in iron status from an iron-biofortified bean intervention affect work efficiency. Methods A total of 125 iron-depleted (ferritin <20 μg/L) female Rwandan university students (18–26 y) were selected from a larger sample randomly assigned to consume iron-biofortified beans (Fe-Bean; 86.1 mg Fe/kg) or conventional beans (control: 50.6 mg Fe/kg) twice daily for 18 wk (average of 314 g beans consumed/d). Blood biomarkers of iron status (primary outcome) and physical work efficiency (secondary outcome) were measured before and after the intervention. Work performed was assessed during 5-min steady-state periods at 0-, 25-, and 40-W workloads using a mechanically braked cycle ergometer. Work efficiency was calculated at 25 W and 40 W as the work accomplished divided by the energy expended at that workload above that expended at 0 W. General linear models were used to evaluate the relation between changes in iron status biomarkers and work efficiency. Results The Fe-Bean intervention had significant positive effects on hemoglobin, serum ferritin, and body iron stores but did not affect work efficiency. However, 18-wk change in hemoglobin was positively related to work efficiency at 40 W in the full sample (n = 119; estimate: 0.24 g/L; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.48 g/L; P = 0.044) and among women who were anemic (hemoglobin <120 g/L) at baseline (n = 43; estimate: 0.64 g/L; 95% CI: 0.05, 1.23 g/L; P = 0.036). Among women who were nonanemic at baseline, change in serum ferritin was positively related to change in work efficiency at 40 W (n = 60; estimate: 0.50 μg/L; 95% CI: 0.06, 0.95 μg/L; P = 0.027). Conclusions Increasing iron status during an iron-biofortified bean feeding trial improves work efficiency in iron-depleted, sedentary women. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01594359.

Youth in extension and advisory services: Rwanda

Approximately 88 percent of the world’s 1.2 billion youth (ages 15-24 as defined by the UN) live in developing countries. By 2050, the global population of youth is projected to rise to 1.8 billion, with 35 percent of that estimated to live on the African continent. This presents a challenge to many developing countries given the need to create economic opportunities for this growing segment of the population. According to the World Bank, even if countries had suitable conditions for growth and economic transformation, the job market in developing countries could not absorb the growing number of young people projected to become eligible for jobs. In addition to the youth bulge, meeting the growing global demand for food and nutrition also presents a challenge, with some estimates citing a need to increase food availability by 70-100 percent. At the same time, factors such as an increasingly globalized and connected world, higher global incomes, urbanization and widespread access to digital tools are creating new opportunities in agri-food systems for youth and other rural actors. Tapping into the potential of youth and creating opportunities for them in agriculture, including in extension and advisory services (EAS), will be key to meeting global food and nutrition needs as well as achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Feed the Future’s Food Secure 2030 vision. Rural extension and advisory services are defined as all the different activities that provide the information and services needed by farmers and other players in the agri-food system and rural development to develop and build their technical, organizational and management capacities, so they can improve their quality of life and well-being (Christoplos, 2010).

Changes in iron status are related to changes in brain activity and behavior in Rwandan female university students: Results from a randomized controlled efficacy trial involving iron-biofortified beans

Background: Evidence suggests that iron deficiency (ID) affects cognitive performance, as measured in behavior. Although such effects must be mediated by changes in the brain, very few studies have included measures of brain activity to assess this relation. Objective: We tested the hypothesis that provision of iron-biofortified beans would result in improvements in measures of iron status, brain dynamics, and behavior.

A case for space: The efficiency spillover effect of iron biofortified beans in Rwanda

This paper provides an analysis on the technical efficiency of iron biofortified bean production in Rwanda, as well as recommendations for implementation of targeted biofortification programs. We employ a three-pronged approach to examine efficiency across matched pairs of treated (i.e., grew iron biofortified beans) and control (i.e., grew other improved or traditional beans) bean growing households. First, bean growing households (treatment and control) were matched by using the spatial propensity score matching (PSM) approach. Second, efficiency was estimated using spatial autoregressive models and non-spatial stochastic frontier models on the three data groups: treatment, control, and pool. Third, an econometric analysis was conducted to explore factors affecting farmers’ efficiencies. All these steps were implemented separately for farmers who grew bush beans and for those who grew climbing beans. Results showed that for both types of bean growers, farmers who grew iron biofortified varieties were relatively more efficient and obtained greater bean production (by 3 percent for bush and 13 percent for climbing) than the control group. A spatial univariate clustering spatial analysis on farmers efficiency helped identify geographic areas in which farmers with high technical efficiency (i.e., hotspots) and low technical efficiency (i.e., cold spots) were located, and can be reached through targeted, tailor-made interventions.

Impact of iron biofortified beans on yields and farmers' incomes: The case of Rwanda

This paper investigates the economic impact of the adoption of conventionally-bred improved iron biofortified beans (IBB) by smallholder farmers in Rwanda. Created through conventional breeding, these beans contain higher levels of dietary iron as compared to beans more commonly used by smallholder farmers in Rwanda. Using observational studies and spatial econometrics methods, we estimated the treatment effect and heterogeneous impact of IBB production on farmers’ yields and potential incomes. We also used a national representative cross-sectional bean farmer survey collected in season B of 2015. Our results indicate that adoption of IBB has contributed to yield and income gains. IBB bush growers, on average, increased their yields by 23% per hectare equivalent to 152 kg (P < 0.05) due to their adoption of IBB, and their potential income by 24% per hectare, that is about $75 (P < 0.04). Farmers that grew IBB climbing varieties, on average, increased their yields by 22% per hectare equivalent to 194 kg (P < 0.04), and their potential agricultural income by 25% per hectare, equal to $116 (P < 0.04). Nationwide, this represents an additional total production value of $2.5 million for all IBB production in season B 2015. Additionally, we found evidence of negative selection by assessing the impact of IBB adoption on those smallholder farmers who are less likely to adopt—for instance, because of access to resources. Evidence suggests this is typically found among farmers that have small land-labor ratios and are closer to markets. Indeed, our findings suggest substantial gains in yields and incomes resulting from this group of farmers adopting iron biofortified seeds. Therefore, based on these results, policies that support greater access to improved iron biofortified bean seeds should be prioritized in Rwanda, and elsewhere in Africa We expect the adoption of IBB to not only improve yields and incomes, but also the dietary iron intake of household members. This would help to reduce the consequences of iron deficiencies—though these effects are measured elsewhere.

Stories of Change - Rwanda, Final Report

Globally, undernutrition is related to almost half of the deaths in children younger than five years of age. It leads to large human and economic costs to countries through increased morbidity and mortality in childhood, poor child growth and development, and hinders adult work capacity and productivity. These consequences, in turn, have serious implications for national development. Eliminating malnutrition has, therefore, been on the forefront of the political agenda of many countries worldwide and for global movements such as Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN). Extensive evidence on what nutrition-specific interventions work to reduce malnutrition exists. Less is known, however, about how to effectively implement these interventions at scale, and what mix of interventions is needed to effectively address the multiple co-existing nutrition problems in different contexts (including nutrition-sensitive programs). Additionally, greater clarity is needed on the role that commitment, program and policy coherence, and context-specific factors, play in creating enabling environments to reduce malnutrition. The Stories of Change (SoC) case studies, originally conducted in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, India (Odisha state), Nepal, Senegal, and Zambia, and now in Rwanda, aim to fill some of these knowledge gaps by examining the “drivers of change” in reducing malnutrition across different contexts.

Stories of Change: Rwanda: Understanding the drivers of stunting reduction among Rwandan children from 2005 to 2015

Despite significant progress, childhood stunting is still a serious public health concern in Rwanda. To make further progress in reduc-ing child stunting it is essential to understand the context-specific drivers of stunting to devise strategies to address these causes. The primary objective of this study was to assess the drivers of change in stunting reduction among children 0-59 months of age between 2005 and 2015 in Rwanda.

Stories of Change: Rwanda: Understanding how Rwanda created an enabling environment for improvements in nutrition and the challenges that remain

Understanding the context-specific causes of child malnutrition, including those related to political commitment and program and policy coherence, is essential for effectively reducing the prevalence of nutrition-related problems such as stunting and anemia and their subsequent negative impacts on human and national development. Between 2005 and 2015 Rwanda made substantial progress in reducing malnutrition, reducing stunting and anemia among children < 5 years of age by 14 and 15 percentage points, respectively. Despite these improvements, stunting and anemia remain important nutrition issues for young children in Rwanda with the prevalence of stunting (38%) among the highest in the world [8]. Furthermore, stunting reduction has varied across the country with some districts experiencing declines in stunting (“reduced stunting districts”), while in others stunting has either increased or stayed the same (“non-reduced stunting districts”). To facilitate greater progress in reducing child malnutrition in Rwanda, we conducted a Stories of Change Study which aimed to document the drivers of stunting and anemia reduction in Rwanda, understand what may have contributed to the variation in stunting reduction across districts, and to understand the remaining nutrition problems and the potential barriers and facilitators to future progress. The overall goal is for these results to be used by program implementers and policymakers to refine programs and policies to further reduce child malnutrition in Rwanda. This study was modeled after similar studies conducted in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Odisha (India), Nepal, Senegal, and Zambia under the Stories of Change in Nutrition project.

Stories of change: How Rwanda created an enabling environment for reducing malnutrition (P22-011-19)

Eliminating malnutrition is on many countries’ political agendas but knowledge of how enabling environments are created and used is needed. We assessed the drivers of change in stunting reduction among children <5 y of age in Rwanda and contributors to differential reduction over 10–25 y.

Promoting rapid and sustained adoption of biofortified crops: What we learned from iron-biofortified bean delivery approaches in Rwanda

Micronutrient deficiencies, also known as hidden hunger, affect two billion people worldwide, curtailing their ability to lead healthy, productive lives. Biofortified staple crops, bred to be rich in micronutrient content, are a cost-effective and scalable solution to alleviating micronutrient deficiency, particularly among rural households who consume what they produce. Delivery of biofortified planting material in Rwanda began in 2012, and it is important to learn from the efforts undertaken to date to inform the design of higher impact – lower cost delivery strategies for scaling up these crops. In this paper, we use a nationally representative household survey of bean producers and delivery data from seven consecutive seasons and apply duration analysis to estimate the impact of different delivery approaches on household time to adoption, disadoption and readoption of iron-biofortified beans in Rwanda. Proximity to formal delivery via sales of small packets of planting material quickens adoption and readoption, while delivery of larger quantities of planting material to small-scale producers within a village slows disadoption of iron-biofortified beans. Informal dissemination within social networks and access to extension are also major drivers of rapid adoption. In addition, households whose main decision maker for bean production is a woman, has some formal education, and more years of experience growing beans disadopt iron-biofortified beans more slowly than other households. These findings provide evidence that current efforts to promote iron-biofortified crops have been successful and are expected to inform future development of sustainable and cost-effective delivery models for biofortified crops in Rwanda and elsewhere.

Land consolidation, specialization and household diets: Evidence from Rwanda

Rwanda: Agricultural R&D Indicators Factsheet

This country factsheet presents key agricultural R&D indicators in a highly accessible visual display. The publication also features a more in-depth analysis of some of the key challenges that the country’s agricultural R&D system is facing, and the policy options to address these challenges.

Factsheet on capacities in agricultural higher education: University of Kibungo, Rwanda Faculty of Agriculture and Rural Development

Credible quantitative and qualitative information on existing capacities in agricultural higher education agencies in Africa are crucial for strategic planning, policy formulation, setting priorities and benchmarks, measuring progress toward benchmarks, and identifying capacity gaps. Decisionmakers require a solid understanding of existing staffing and student capacities in the higher education sector, as well as in the wider agricultural innovation systems in Africa south of the Sahara. Access to such information supports effective policymaking to address capacity issues in higher education, agricultural research, extension, and other areas. Such information remains extremely limited, however. To fill this need, the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI/IFPRI) and the Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture (RUFORUM) initiated a partnership to pilot the collection of this type of data for RUFORUM’s member universities. This factsheet presents the available data results for Africa University, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources. An online version of the data is available via the Portal on Agricultural Capacity in RUFORUM Universities: www.asti.cgiar.org/RUFORUM.

Factsheet on capacities in agricultural higher education: University of Rwanda College of Agriculture, Animal Sciences, and Veterinary Medicine

Credible quantitative and qualitative information on existing capacities in agricultural higher education agencies in Africa are crucial for strategic planning, policy formulation, setting priorities and benchmarks, measuring progress toward benchmarks, and identifying capacity gaps. Decisionmakers require a solid understanding of existing staffing and student capacities in the higher education sector, as well as in the wider agricultural innovation systems in Africa south of the Sahara. Access to such information supports effective policymaking to address capacity issues in higher education, agricultural research, extension, and other areas. Such information remains extremely limited, however. To fill this need, the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI/IFPRI) and the Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture (RUFORUM) initiated a partnership to pilot the collection of this type of data for RUFORUM’s member universities. This factsheet presents the available data results for Africa University, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources. An online version of the data is available via the Portal on Agricultural Capacity in RUFORUM Universities: www.asti.cgiar.org/RUFORUM.

Accelerating progress to end hunger and undernutrition in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Malawi, and Rwanda

Compact2025 is a bold new initiative for ending hunger and undernutrition by 2025. It brings stakeholders together to set priorities, innovate and learn, fine-tune actions, build on successes, and synthesize sharable lessons in order to accelerate progress. Compact2025 and partners organized one-day roundtable discussions in Bangladesh (May 5, 2016), Ethiopia (March 28, 2016), Malawi (May 26, 2016), and Rwanda (March 24, 2016) to set the critical groundwork for assessing how to accelerate progress to end hunger and undernutrition in each country by 2025. The roundtables identified key knowledge, policy, and implementation gaps as well as opportunities, synergies, and priority areas for action. In all countries, there was a high degree of commitment, strong interest to work together across sectors, and out-of-the-box thinking for solutions to accelerate progress.

Toward an understanding of economic growth in Africa: A reinterpretation of the Lewis model

We develop a model economy that has many of the features of Lewis (1954) but that also includes an in-between sector as described by Lewis (1979). Our model underscores the importance of the following determinants of structural change: (i) productivity growth in the agricultural sector; (ii) productivity growth in the nonagricultural sector and; (iii) the terms of trade. Public investment enhances productivity growth in all sectors but when it is financed by foreign inflows, it also causes a real exchange rate appreciation leading to a contraction in the open modern sector. These results provide a partial explanation for recent patterns of growth in Rwanda and elsewhere in Africa where the nontradables or what we call the in-between sector has expanded more rapidly than the tradable sector. Our results also highlight the dilemma faced by poor countries in dire need of public investment with a very limited tax base.

Land consolidation, specialization, and household diets: Evidence from Rwanda

Despite rapid population growth, increasing land pressure and urbanization, farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa have not intensified their production in a sustainable manner and farming systems remain predominantly subsistence-oriented. Unsurprisingly, developing countries are directing large shares of their agricultural budgets to programs that actively promote crop intensification and the development of more commercially-oriented agricultural systems. Rwanda’s Crop Intensification Program (CIP), launched in 2007, is one such example. However, despite its apparent success in raising production of several priority crops, there are legitimate concerns about the food and nutrition security implications for households that are encouraged to consolidate their land, specialize in their production, and increasingly rely on markets for their food needs. Using recent household survey data and a propensity score matching difference-in-differences method, we find that participation in land consolidation activities had ambiguous consumption effects: it positively impacted on consumption of roots and tubers, but had a negative effect on meat, fish and fruits consumption and the potential availability of vitamin B12 in participants’ diets. This calls for a review of CIP implementation practices to enhance the program’s food and nutrition security outcomes, with improvements in market functioning and market access being potential starting points.

Distributional effects of growth and public expenditures in Africa: Estimates for Tanzania and Rwanda

Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment

Rwanda: Ending hunger and undernutrition: challenges and opportunities

This scoping report was prepared to inform the Compact2025 roundtable discussion by providing an overview of the food security and nutrition challenges and opportunities in Rwanda. It includes the current food security and nutrition policy landscape across key sectors and actors in Rwanda as well as critical knowledge, policy, and implementation gaps. Additionally, the scoping report presents a SWOTanalysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) that crystallizes the main elements that drive or hamper food security and nutrition in the country. To determine what is holding back progress, this report identifies several key research and action gaps, including the need for better coordination both horizontally (within and across ministries, donors, and other actors) and vertically (across tiers of government down to community-level implementation); continued investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) and innovation; and improved targeting and coverage of food security and nutrition actions.

Iron beans in Rwanda: crop development and delivery experience

HarvestPlus and its partners have successfully developed and delivered iron bean varieties to more than one million farming households in Rwanda, DRC, and Uganda to help combat the adverse health effects of iron deficiency widespread in these countries. Focusing primarily on Rwanda, this chapter summarizes the country, nutritional and consumer background, crop development, release, and delivery of iron bean varieties and synthesizes lessons learned and future challenges.

Food System Transformations: Brazil, Rwanda, and Vietnam

Brazil, Rwanda, and Vietnam implemented forward-looking policies that led to their improved food security and nutrition. Alongside strong agricultural productivity growth, high profitability, and improved nutrition, these countries attracted private sector investment along the entire food value chain. The presence of strong partnerships contributed to this success. Governmentled initiatives were complemented with collaborations that led to improvements, including, for example, climate-smart approaches to agricultural production. Further, food system transformations in these countries contributed to significant reductions in hunger and undernutrition. These transformations did not happen without setbacks, however; a common challenge was the issue of inclusive land rights, especially for small farmers. This document describes food system transformations in Brazil, Rwanda, and Vietnam by comparing several aspects of the food system—including interventions in land tenure, nutrition, and finance— against the backdrop of each country’s political economy. It also discusses remaining and emerging challenges in each country. These case studies present a variety of context-specific approaches that could provide lessons for other countries and help pave the way to a transformed global food system.

The role of foreign aid in the fast-growing Rwandan economy: Assessing growth alternatives

Nourished: How Africa can build a future free from hunger and malnutrition

The main objective of this report is to identify interventions that work and recommend options for policies and programs to eliminate hunger and malnutrition in all its forms. The report begins with a review of the African and global policy agenda, setting out the challenges and complexity of addressing all forms of malnutrition in Africa. It then offers an overview of successful interventions and innovative approaches that have been implemented in some countries and discusses critical threats—climate change and conflicts—that jeopardize progress on reducing malnutrition. Lastly, the report reviews the experiences of seven African countries that have been particularly successful in reducing malnutrition levels and draws some important lessons for other countries.

Consumer market segments for biofortified iron beans in Rwanda: Evidence from a hedonic testing study

Extension services in Rwanda take up the volunteer farmer trainer approach

The East Africa Dairy Development program successfully used the volunteer farmer trainer (VFT) approach in Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda. PIM-supported research on the VFT approach was in part responsible for its uptake by 21 development organizations in Rwanda. Three years after the end of the EADD program in Rwanda, VFTs are still training farmers with support from the government, NGOs, and producer organizations.

Radio messaging frequency, information framing, and consumer willingness to pay for biofortified iron beans: Evidence from revealed preference elicitation in rural Rwanda

Iron deficiency is a public health problem in many developing countries. Iron‐biofortified varieties of commonly consumed staple crops have the potential to contribute to the daily iron requirements in diets. This paper examines consumer acceptance and willingness to pay (WTP) for two iron bean varieties in Rwanda: red iron bean (RIB) and white iron bean (WIB). Using the Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschak mechanism, the paper investigates the effect of (1) nutrition information; (2) information frame; and (3) the frequency of providing the information on consumer WTP. WTP estimations take into account social interaction and nonpayment effects. Results indicate that without information about the nutritional benefits of the two iron bean varieties, consumers are willing to pay a large premium for the RIB variety, but not for the WIB variety. The nutrition information provided has a significantly positive effect on the premium for each of the iron bean varieties. Results also indicate that the effects of how the information is framed on this premium are not statistically significant. However, providing the nutrition information three times versus once significantly increases consumer demand for the WIB variety. These findings could inform the design of efficient delivery and marketing strategies for iron bean varieties in Rwanda.

Economic impact of refugees

The number of refugees displaced by civil conflict or natural disasters is on the rise. Economic impacts of refugees on host countries are controversial and little understood, because data have not been available and the question of refugee impacts does not lend itself to conventional impact evaluation methods. We use a unique Monte Carlo simulation approach with microdata from refugee and host-country surveys to obtain the first estimates of refugee camps’ impacts on surrounding host-country economies and to compare impacts of cash versus in-kind refugee aid. An additional refugee increases total real income within a 10-km radius around two cash camps by significantly more than the aid the refugee receives. Impacts around a camp receiving in-kind (food) aid are smaller.

In Rwandese women with low iron status, iron absorption from low-phytic acid beans and biofortified beans is comparable, but low-phytic acid beans cause adverse gastrointestinal symptoms