Rwanda SSP Publications

× Increased commercialization of smallholder farmers is a major emphasis of Rwanda’s PSTA4 and will continue with PSTA5, as well as other policy documents related to agriculture. Although PSTA4 sought to increase the profitability of smallholder production, efforts to address accelerating commercialization were limited due to the absence of data and analysis on returns to commercial production systems. Relatively little was known about smallholder agricultural decision-making and the associated costs and returns to production systems among these farmers. This policy note introduces an important research initiative that will explore various aspects of commercialization by Rwandan smallholder farmers and is meant as a general introduction to smallholder commercialization. In subsequent research papers, more detailed studies based on these initial findings will contribute to an improved understanding of agricultural smallholders by providing (1) more nuanced analysis of commercial farmer typologies, (2) estimates of returns to commercial production systems across multiple farmers typologies, and (3) recommendations designed to improve interventions in smallholder commercialization.

× This paper explores the broad spectrum of commercial engagement by Rwandan farmers by grouping farmers according to characteristics of the head of household, the degree of commercialization of their farms, size of livestock holdings and other factors.

We use statistical methodologies, including factor and cluster analysis, combined with existing knowledge of the agricultural sector to define five types of Rwandan farmers, separated into two broad groups. The first group (Group A) includes three types broadly classified as less wealthy, less commercialized, with a net negative gross margin. Within this group the three types of farmers include: Type 1—Less commercialized older male headed households with larger families, Type 2—Better educated, youth headed households, who are more market oriented but have smaller land holdings, Type 3—Older female headed households who produce relatively lower agricultural production value relative to their assets owned.

× In this paper, we explore the current levels and participation of crop commercialization by Rwandan smallholder farmers. Our basic unit of analysis is total crop sales divided by the total value of crop production, either at the household or specific crop level. Overall, our findings suggest that approximately 80 percent of farmers participate in crop market sales and sell an average of 33 percent of their total production. However, there is a wide variety of percentage sales by crop and, in general, higher-valued crops are sold by more commercialized farm households. We also find that value of crop production per hectare rises with greater commercialization, suggesting that developing greater market commercialization, particularly with more valuable crops, may increase household incomes and aid in the economic transformation.

× Recent collaborative CGIAR research has developed a prototype for tracking district-level costs of a healthy diet using monthly eSoko data.1 High frequency monitoring of diets allows for near real-time generation of insights on price impacts on diet costs. The temporal richness of this data allows for immediate analytics of current food system events. This research provides an analysis of district-level price movements of healthy diet compositions, as well as food prices that compose the diet. We use this prototype to demonstrate how eSoko data could be used for monitoring an economic shock and how to evaluate the effects in near real time. The general goal is to demonstrate a potential early warning system that could improve the menu of policy choices for enhanced resilience.

× This paper explores crop commercialization among smallholder agricultural households in Rwanda from a cost and revenue perspective to determine profitability at the farm level. We use standard revenue and cost equations to assess the commercial viability of the smallholders. In general, we find that a household’s total crop production creates positive returns even if implicit costs, such as own family labor and fertilizer subsidies, are included. Specifically, over 80 percent of our sample households generated positive economic returns from farming— referred to as demonstrating a positive gross economic margin (GEM). However, if only crop market sales and market input costs are used in the calculations, only 40 percent of agricultural households generated positive returns—referred to as demonstrating a positive gross marketing margin (GMM). Most of the explanation for this difference is that the typical farm household sells only about one-third of its crop production by value. This outcome suggests that many agricultural households continue to focus on cultivating food crops for their own consumption and do not specialize in commercial production. This is to be expected in an economic context where input, credit, and commodity markets are still developing, production decisions are still shaped by high levels of weather and market risk, and production risk management options are limited, among many other factors. The results of this research provide a better understanding of how Rwandan smallholders might move towards higher value production, with the ultimate goal being to increase household revenues and welfare and accelerate the country’s economic transformation.

× This study analyzes the costs, returns, and profitability of smallholder agriculture in Rwanda using a gross margin approach (definitions are provided below) and reveals that over 80 percent of farmers generate positive gross economic margins. However, only around 40 percent achieve positive gross marketing margins from crop sales. This difference is directly attributable to the fact that two-thirds of production is directly consumed by households. The analysis further identifies that farm households allocate about 80 percent of their total crop input expenditures to fertilizer, seed, and hired labor, while the remaining expenses associated with fixed production costs that are almost exclusively related to land rental costs.

× The fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA IV) of the Government of Rwanda emphasizes extension and advisory services (EAS) as a priority area (MINAGRI 2018). In support of PSTA IV, the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI) began enhancing extension and advisory services by introducing a Customized Agriculture Extension System (CAES) (MINAGRI 2020). The CAES calls for ICT-supported extension services, stating that “ICT can revolutionize agriculture in Rwanda” (MINAGRI 2020: 34). Despite an enabling policy environment and Rwanda’s embracing of the ICT revolution, extension services have not taken advantage of the potential of ICTs (MINAGRI 2020). This paper looks at capacities of agricultural extension staff and the readiness of Rwandan public and private extension staff to use ICTs in their work—to be digitally equipped. A phone survey of 500 agricultural extension agents (EAs) was conducted in February and March 2021 across all districts of Rwanda among EAs in the public, private, and nonprofit sectors in Rwanda. We examine their demographics, education, and work backgrounds. To assess the ‘digital readiness’ of EAs, we assess the impacts of various factors on an EA’s digital experience and their attitudes toward digital modernization.

× The importance of maize for Rwanda cannot be overstated. Most smallholder farmers, along the spectrum of both land size and level of commercialization, engage in both production, own consumption, and sale of maize. Unlike most other crops, maize is commonly produced by all levels of commercialized and subsistence smallholder farmers. For example, recent research revealed that even though almost half of all maize produced is sold (44%), only an average of 23 percent is marketed at the household level (Warner et al. 2024). This indicates that while maize is widely sold by most smallholders, it is disproportionally sold by those with relatively larger farms. Therefore, maize is important for both own consumption as well as commercial sales and price movements are critical for understanding potential welfare impacts on both buyers and sellers. Research presented here outlines some important maize price relationships, including multi-year trends, interrelationships between Rwandan markets and seasonality. Overall, we find strong correlation between all markets suggesting a good degree of integration but persistent individual market prices above and below national averages as well as seasonality that generally conforms to maize’s main harvest period (Season A). This policy brief provides an overview of maize prices in Rwanda in order to enhance evidence-based policymaking for targeting recommendations aimed at more integrated and stable maize market prices throughout the country. For example, seasonal price changes suggest an annual average price fluctuation of approximately 30 percent and if targeted policies could reduce this seasonal price variation, smallholder welfare would likely be improved.

× Rwanda is a recognized leader in the region and in the world in terms of women’s empowerment. However, no country has yet achieved full gender equality, resulting in untapped potential. The findings from the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) baseline survey conducted in 2019 for the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI), indicated that women and men in Rwanda both have relatively high levels of empowerment across different agricultural do mains, and most women are as empowered as men in their households. This working paper dis cusses the findings further and in the context of MINAGRI’s Gender and Youth Mainstreaming Strategy that was also launched in 2019, as well as the Fourth Strategic Plan for Agricultural Transformation (PSTA 4). Key findings include the following.
• Compared to other countries in the region, women in Rwanda have relatively greater access to financial services and a relatively lower time burden in agriculture.
• However, when compared to men in Rwanda, inequalities persist. Women are significantly less likely than men to access financial services, participate in the marketing of agricultural commodities, access extension services, and spend their time on productive (rather than reproductive) work.
By adapting and promoting innovative and gender-inclusive financial products, shifting gendered cultural norms, providing extension to both the household head and the spouse, and investing in time-saving technologies and innovations, there are opportunities to reduce the gender gap in agriculture and increase agricultural productivity. Realization of these outcomes will depend partly on the implementation of the Gender and Youth Mainstreaming Strategy and PSTA 4, and partly on coordination with other gender-transformative programs in Rwanda.

× Rwanda is a recognized leader in the region and the world in terms of women’s empowerment. However, no country has yet achieved full gender equality, resulting in untapped potential for improvement. The findings from the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) baseline survey conducted in 2019 for the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI) indicate that women and men in Rwanda have both relatively high levels of empowerment across different agricultural domains, while many women are as empowered as men in their households, some gender disparities remain.

× Rwanda’s impressive economic growth over the past two decades has been accompanied by significant structural change in the broad economy and the agrifood system in particular. This note summarizes key results from a recent diagnostic of Rwanda’s agrifood system transformation, examining the effectiveness of productivity-led growth in different agricultural value chains for promoting development outcomes related to poverty, growth, employment, diet quality, and hunger.
The findings show that value chains differ in their effectiveness in promoting these different development outcomes. The wheat and sorghum value chain, for example, has strong anti-poverty effects and is effective at reducing hunger, but is less effective at increasing jobs. Trade-offs will emerge as no single value chain is most effective at achieving every desired outcome; therefore, promoting a few value chains jointly will diversify agrifood system growth and help achieve multiple development outcomes simultaneously.

× This report provides a comprehensive statistical overview of agricultural household data collected by IFPRI from a smallholder commercialization survey in late 2022. Sampled to be representative to the provincial level, ten households were surveyed in 202 villages for a total of 2,020 households interviewed. The survey covers a wide range of topics including household demographics, agricultural farm holdings, input use, crop choice, levels of commercialization and other non-farm sources of income. The statistical tables are generally presented by principal categorical variables of interest which include provinces, gender and age of household head (youth/mature), as well as size of land holdings. These designations are meant to provide general insights into the current state of agricultural households in Rwanda. Building on this report, future research, on more specific topics of interest, will be performed to build a more comprehensive understanding of agricultural household economic behavior for broader understanding as well as potential policy engagement.

× Rwanda has made remarkable progress in the past two decades, highlighted by rapid economic growth and sharp reductions in poverty. During this period, the country emerged as a leader among sub-Saharan African countries in promoting innovation, gender equality, and an enabling business environment. The government remains strongly committed to ambitious development goals, efficiency and transparency in implementation, strong collaboration with the private sector, and diplomacy through regional and global partnerships.

× Although public spending under the fourth Strategic Plan for the Transformation of Agriculture 2018– 2021 (PSTA 4) is generally well structured and cost-effective, funding has been largely stagnant— and even declining, when measured in constant prices—during PSTA’s first four years. This note summarizes the effects of a modest reallocation of public spending under PSTA 4 towards greater cost-effectiveness, as well as a modest increase in PSTA 4 spending. Results draw on an economywide modeling tool designed to prioritize public resources around four key development goals: economic growth, employment creation, poverty reduction, and diet quality improvement.

× Rwanda’s fourth Strategic Plan for the Transformation of Agriculture (PSTA 4), which extends from 2018 to 2024, is currently at its midpoint. This note highlights the contribution of PSTA 4 in its first half (2018–2021) to four key development outcomes: economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, and diet quality improvement.

× As Rwanda is expected to return to its rapid growth trajectory following the COVID-19 pandemic, agriculture will continue to play a central role in the structural transformation of the entire economy. To this end, the Government of Rwanda continues to invest in the agricultural sector by building on Strategic Plans for the Transformation of Agriculture (PSTAs) that began in the early 2000s. The challenging question is how to prioritize public expenditures across a broad portfolio of policies and programs. Ambitious plans, whether in the short or long term, require difficult decisions. The prioritization of public investment becomes even more complex as Rwanda’s structural transformation advances and as new investments—beyond the farm—become critically important for the agricultural sector. The structural transformation process itself means that as agriculture becomes more integrated with the rest of the economy, public resource allocations need to address a wider range of issues across the entire food system; these include nutrition-sensitive food production systems, inclusive value chain development, nonfarm rural enterprise development, and climate-resilient sustainable intensification of both crops and livestock.
This study provides evidence that is designed to assist the Government of Rwanda in its selection of agricultural policy, investment, and expenditure portfolios that reflect the country’s broad focus on its food system and structural transformation. This process of prioritization will need to incorporate multiple public investments targeting multiple development outcomes and will need to be grounded in the costeffective use of public resources in a largely market-led transformation process. This data-driven and evidence-based approach must critically underpin an informed investment prioritization process that helps achieve ambitious targets in an environment constrained by limited public resources. The study uses the Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide model developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), with contributions from colleagues at the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI), the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN) and the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR). The study draws on data from multiple sources as well as expert insights to inform the application of RIAPA’s Agricultural Investment for Data Analyzer (AIDA) module as a tool to measure the impacts of alternative public expenditure options on multiple development outcomes. Using this integrated modeling framework, the study links agricultural and rural development spending to four specific outcomes: economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, and diet quality improvement; at the same time, it considers the synergies and tradeoffs associated with the different investment options in the transformation process.
The paper first assesses the contribution of public expenditures to agricultural and rural development under the fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 4) that extends between 2018 and 2024. These findings are important, given the fact that since the beginning of PSTA 4, the budget allocated to MINAGRI (measured in constant prices) has stagnated. Our results suggest that increased spending on agriculture is well justified and that such spending is essential if the Government of Rwanda is to achieve its long-term development goals.

× International fertilizer prices have increased rapidly since 2020 due to multiple factors. This note assesses the impact of these price increases on Rwanda’s agriculture sector, with an emphasis on implications for crop production, subsidy costs, and the Government of Rwanda’s agricultural budget.
Using data from the Seasonal Agricultural Surveys, we simulate the impact of increasing fertilizer prices on fertilizer demand and use, which in turn affects fertilizer value-cost ratios at the plot level and, ultimately, maize, rice, and Irish potato output and the Government’s fertilizer subsidy bill. Findings indicate the following
• At current subsidy rates and market prices, national output across all seasons could decrease by up to 3 percent for maize, 2 percent for rice, and 12 percent for Irish potato under strong assumptions about farmers’ sensitivity to fertilizer prices. Weaker assumptions about their sensitivity result in much smaller decreases in output.
• At current subsidy rates and market prices, the fertilizer subsidy bill may increase from 7 percent of MINAGRI’s budget—inclusive of funds earmarked for districts—to 12 percent.
Ultimately, the policy challenge will be to determine whether a return to the original subsidy levels and rates is feasible and under what conditions. In the short term, volatility in international fertilizer prices may continue, particularly in light of the conflict in Ukraine, making it necessary to maintain the current subsidy regime. But I the medium term, it is possible to move towards market prices for fertilizer without dramatically affecting output, thereby providing more fiscal space for other priorities.

× As Rwanda journeys towards a broad-based social and economic transformation, there are opportunities for the country’s food systems to become a key driver on that journey. This idea has attracted considerable attention in the national consultations conducted in the run-up to the United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS) in September 2021, at the summit itself, in the post-summit actions that Rwanda is now pursuing, and in a series of prior case studies on Rwanda’s food system (Adolph et al. 2021; Guijt et al. 2021; Malabo Montpellier Panel 2021).
This note summarizes a recent diagnostic of Rwanda’s food systems and the policy landscape that shapes them. Emphasis is placed on six inter-related clusters: diet quality and nutrition security; livelihoods equity; environmental resilience; agricultural productivity; infrastructure capacity; and financing and investment.
Overall findings suggest an opportunity for a tangible shift in how public policy in Rwanda approaches its food systems and how the systems contribute to the broader national transformation process. We offer several policy recommendations to support the design of a coherent country strategy and policy framework. First, strengthen existing entities and mechanisms, and innovate on them. Second, develop a national food systems transformation strategy that is integrative, multi-sectoral, and action-oriented. Third, innovate on existing programs. Fourth, allow for learning through both success and failure. Fifth, invest in rigorous impact evaluation.

× This paper provides a diagnostic of Rwanda’s food systems and the policy landscape that shapes it. It aims to inform national and local conversations on Rwanda’s food systems transformation—an idea that has attracted considerable attention in national consultations conducted in the run-up to the United Nations Food Systems Summit in September 2021, at the summit itself, and in the post-summit actions that Rwanda is now pursuing.
A food system comprises the full range of actors and activities originating from agriculture, livestock, forestry, or fisheries, as well as the broader economic, societal, and natural environments in which they operate. An inclusive and sustainable food systems transformation is a process of growth and development that is profitable for the full range of individual actors engaged in the system, beneficial for society including marginalized and vulnerable groups, and advantageous for the natural environment.
Rwanda’s journey towards a food systems transformation is well captured in Vision 2050, the National Strategy for Transformation (NST 1), and strategic plans for sectors such as agriculture, health, nutrition, commerce, and the environment. Their priorities are echoed in ongoing programs and investments of the government, its development partners, the private sector, and civil society.
Nonetheless, there are still challenges facing Rwanda’s efforts to sustain and accelerate progress along this journey. Efforts to overcome these challenges call for a deeper and more significant shift in thinking—informed by the food systems perspective—that is highlighted by stronger multi-sectoral approaches to problem-solving.
Overall findings suggest an opportunity for a tangible shift in how public policy in Rwanda approaches its food systems and how the systems contribute to the broader national transformation process. This means addressing how balances are struck—and tradeoffs are managed—between and among agriculture, nutrition, health, and the environment in the face of a climate crisis. It also means giving greater attention to the demand-side drivers in Rwanda’s food system, recognizing that singularly focused supply-side strategies rarely succeed in isolation. Finally, it means deepening the integration of policies and policy actors in the design and implementation phases of interventions that shape the food system.
We offer several recommendations to translate abstract ideas into a coherent and focused set of actions in the policy space.
1. Strengthen existing entities and mechanisms rather than create new ones.
2. Develop a national food systems transformation strategy that is integrative, multi-sectoral, and action-oriented.
3. Innovate on existing programs.
4. Allow for learning through both success and failure.
5. Invest in rigorous impact evaluation.
These actions aim to strengthen the policy environment that enables a truly broad-based food systems transformation. This enabling environment is itself an outcome of broad-based national conversations, integration across sectors, domains, and levels; and the encouragement of policy and program innovation.

× This paper assesses the structure of Rwanda’s current and evolving agrifood system and its contribu-tion to national development. The paper reiterates the point that Rwanda’s agrifood system stretches well beyond primary agriculture and creates jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. While off-farm components of Rwanda’s agrifood system have generally grown more rapidly than pri-mary agriculture in recent years, growth varies across value chains of the agrifood system in the stud-ied period. The growth diagnostic in this paper reveals that it is domestic markets that have driven the recent growth in Rwanda’s AFS other than exports.
The paper’s forward-looking analysis assesses potentially differential impacts of value-chain develop-ment efforts on broad development outcomes. The analysis measures the synergies and trade-offs of value-chain development in the context of an inclusive agricultural transformation. Such analysis is conducted using the Rwanda Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – an adaption of IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model to the Rwandan context.
The modeling results indicate that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving development goals and there are significant trade-offs among different development goals from pro-moting a specific value chain. The value chains that make a larger contribution to growth or job crea-tion are not necessarily effective in reducing poverty or improving dietary quality – for example, value chains for coffee and tea – while value chains that play an important role in improving dietary quality may contribute less to job creation – such as vegetables or fruits. While there is no single value chain that can achieve all development goals effectively, it is possible to select a diversified set of value chains that complement each other in achieving different development goals. This latter strategy is a more realistic approach to growth and development.

× Rwanda’s policy response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We use economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda.
- Results show that during the six-week lockdown that began in March, Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation in the same period.
- Results further show that Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of the recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1–1.6 billion).
- While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a noCOVID situation.
- During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points. While these figures may be encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown.
Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s recovery will depend critically on the expansion of Rwanda’s social protection programs, boosting enterprises of all sizes, support to the agri-food system, and restoration of international trade.

× Rwanda’s policy response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences of the actions taken are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We used economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda. In this brief, we present a synopsis of the results of this analysis.
• During the six-week lockdown that began in March 2020, we estimate Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation.
• Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of economic recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1 to 1.6 billion).
• While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a no-COVID situation.
• During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points over the pre-COVID situation. While these figures are encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown.
Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s economic recovery will depend critically on expanding Rwanda’s social protection programs, supporting enterprises of all sizes, providing broad assistance to the agri-food system, and restoring international trade.

× In Rwanda, as in other countries, different types of households will experience the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic differently. We use a microsimulation approach to highlight the importance of these differences and to draw attention to the diversified livelihood strategies of Rwandan households in order to fully understand COVID-19’s impacts on their income and poverty status. Our approach complements macro-level assessments of COVID-19’s economic impacts, focusing on the contribution of the income sources, asset holdings, and location (urban/rural) of households to understanding these differential effects.

× In Rwanda, as elsewhere, different types of households experienced the economic effects of COVID-19 differently. We use a microsimulation approach to show the importance of these differences to better understand COVID-19’s impacts on their income and poverty status.
Main results:
Nationally, during the lockdown period between March and May 2020, the simulation results estimate declines in household income by 33 percent on average. The urban population experienced the largest declines, averaging 40 percent during this period.
Unlike patterns seen with other shocks, middle-income households experienced the sharpest declines in income during the lockdown of an estimated 33 to 35 percent.
The share of individuals falling into poverty was highest among those in urban, middle income (Ubudehe 2) households (27 percent). However, the greatest absolute number of individuals in poverty remained concentrated in rural areas during the lockdown.
Poor individuals in the lowest expenditure quintile remain in the most severe poverty, with average expenditures during the lockdown estimated at 54 percent below the poverty line.
Under both the fast and slow post-COVID economic recovery scenarios used in the simulations, household incomes nearly return to pre-COVID levels for all household categories by the end of 2020. However, these results do not capture the potential longterm impacts of the substantial shocks of the pandemic to incomes, assets, and individual wellbeing.
These modeling results suggest that targeting should be a central component of the design and implementation of social protection programs and economic recovery policies to support a diverse set of beneficiaries. These beneficiaries include rural farming households and poor households, as well as nonagricultural household, and households in the middle expenditure quintiles.

× The COVID-19 pandemic and the economic policy measures taken to prevent its spread led to a global recession in 2020 that was expected to cause significant increases in poverty and food insecurity in many countries. Households were expected to experience a “double whammy” of decreased incomes and rising food prices. This policy note examines whether food prices rose in Rwanda since the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020. The main findings from this price analysis suggest the following.
• Food prices did not significantly rise (or fall) during the COVID-19 pandemic in Rwanda.
• Prices of staple foods (cereals and other starches) declined following the pandemic’s onset in March 2020, while the prices of pulses (the second largest food consumption group in Rwanda after staple foods) experienced a seasonal spike at the end of 2021, but returned to below pre-pandemic levels throughout 2021.
• For most food groups, price trends in each province generally followed the national price trends during the pandemic, with the exception of poultry and eggs.
• Nationally, prices of poultry and eggs declined after the beginning of the pandemic, but these prices vary significantly by province, with prices in the Northern Province remaining above pre-pandemic levels and prices in all other provinces falling since the pandemic, with prices in Kigali City falling the most.
Overall, these results suggest that households in Rwanda were not hit by the “double whammy” of decreased incomes and rising food prices, since food prices remained stable Rather, they may instead have only suffered from decreased incomes. These findings suggest that continued efforts to expand Rwanda’s social protection programs are needed to boost household purchasing power and ensure that households are able to consume more – and more nutritious – foods.