Policy Notes & Briefs

× Increased commercialization of smallholder farmers is a major emphasis of Rwanda’s PSTA4 and will continue with PSTA5, as well as other policy documents related to agriculture. Although PSTA4 sought to increase the profitability of smallholder production, efforts to address accelerating commercialization were limited due to the absence of data and analysis on returns to commercial production systems. Relatively little was known about smallholder agricultural decision-making and the associated costs and returns to production systems among these farmers. This policy note introduces an important research initiative that will explore various aspects of commercialization by Rwandan smallholder farmers and is meant as a general introduction to smallholder commercialization. In subsequent research papers, more detailed studies based on these initial findings will contribute to an improved understanding of agricultural smallholders by providing (1) more nuanced analysis of commercial farmer typologies, (2) estimates of returns to commercial production systems across multiple farmers typologies, and (3) recommendations designed to improve interventions in smallholder commercialization.

× Optimal agricultural mechanization strategies in Rwanda can be better informed by a closer assessment of diverse production environments and experiences in other countries with similar topography. The findings from Rwanda’s latest agricultural surveys, review of recent experiences in countries with rugged terrain and smallholder farming systems similar to Rwanda and reviewing mechanization support strategies from other countries suggest that identifying mechanization technologies suitable for different types of farms, promoting greater private-sector innovations while focusing on the relevant public goods aspect of mechanization is the most promising way forward. Key findings include the following: • Variations in agroecology and cropping systems, irrigated/rainfed systems, farm size, and labor use intensity, among other factors, characterize the key types of mechanization use in Rwanda. • In the medium term, smallholders cultivating rainfed maize and legumes, in addition to irrigated rice, can benefit from the use of tractors, as well as irrigation pumps. • However, farm wages may still be too low and tractor-hiring fees may still be too high in Rwanda to induce a shift to mechanization in the short term. • Policy support for mechanization can focus on improving the understanding of mechanization needs among each type of farmers identified, knowledge of suitable machines, and required skills for their operations and maintenance. • Developing competitive markets and supply networks for promising machines, parts, and repair services at a viable and integrated market scale is also important.

× As Rwanda emerges from the effects of COVID-19 and global price shocks caused by the Russia/Ukrainian conflict, there is an opportunity to focus on agricultural fundamentals to drive its economic transformation. One aspect of the transformation is how farm households are engaging in crop commercialization. This policy note outlines basic findings and suggested recommendations derived from a 2022 Rwandan commercialization household survey. Our basic unit of analysis is total crop sold divided by total value produced, averaged at either the household or individual crop level. Key findings include:  Approximately 20% of our sampled smallholder households do not sell any crops. However, contrary to a subsistence/commercial farm dichotomy, most households sell on a broad continuum ranging from 1 – 100% with an average of 33% of their total crop production marketed.  Crop value per hectare increases with greater marketed sales, indicating that farmers switch from lower value food crops (e.g. beans, cassava, maize) to cash crops such as fruits and vegetables where they market higher percentages.  Crop value per hectare is not correlated with land size, revealing that crop choices drive value and not increasing land-related economies of scale. This finding underscores the pivotal role of crop selection in determining agricultural productivity and economic returns, rather than mere expansion of land holdings.  Irrigation, land size, hiring labor and input purchases increase market participation as well as percentage of sales. Conversely, a larger family size has a negative effect on both.

× Research from a recent IFPRI agricultural survey indicates that there is a broad spectrum of commercial engagement by Rwandan farmers. While this continuum is important for understanding commercialization, grouping farmers by relevant commonalities further improves our knowledge of how different groups engage in markets. Moving beyond simple subsistence and commercialized farmer dichotomies, this study provides a more nuanced understanding by grouping smallholder farmers into types, or typologies, based on 35 common characteristics that are both consistent within these groups and relatively diverse between them. Specifically, this analysis identifies five types of Rwandan farmers, in two broad groups, that disaggregates rural households into meaningful categories for varied potential responses to economic opportunities as well as potential strategic interventions.

× This study analyzes the costs, returns, and profitability of smallholder agriculture in Rwanda using a gross margin approach (definitions are provided below) and reveals that over 80 percent of farmers generate positive gross economic margins. However, only around 40 percent achieve positive gross marketing margins from crop sales. This difference is directly attributable to the fact that two-thirds of production is directly consumed by households. The analysis further identifies that farm households allocate about 80 percent of their total crop input expenditures to fertilizer, seed, and hired labor, while the remaining expenses associated with fixed production costs that are almost exclusively related to land rental costs.

× The fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA IV) of the Government of Rwanda emphasizes extension and advisory services (EAS) as a priority area (MINAGRI 2018). In support of PSTA IV, the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI) began enhancing extension and advisory services by introducing a Customized Agriculture Extension System (CAES) (MINAGRI 2020). The CAES calls for ICT-supported extension services, stating that “ICT can revolutionize agriculture in Rwanda” (MINAGRI 2020: 34). Despite an enabling policy environment and Rwanda’s embracing of the ICT revolution, extension services have not taken advantage of the potential of ICTs (MINAGRI 2020). This paper looks at capacities of agricultural extension staff and the readiness of Rwandan public and private extension staff to use ICTs in their work—to be digitally equipped. A phone survey of 500 agricultural extension agents (EAs) was conducted in February and March 2021 across all districts of Rwanda among EAs in the public, private, and nonprofit sectors in Rwanda. We examine their demographics, education, and work backgrounds. To assess the ‘digital readiness’ of EAs, we assess the impacts of various factors on an EA’s digital experience and their attitudes toward digital modernization.

× The importance of maize for Rwanda cannot be overstated. Most smallholder farmers, along the spectrum of both land size and level of commercialization, engage in both production, own consumption, and sale of maize. Unlike most other crops, maize is commonly produced by all levels of commercialized and subsistence smallholder farmers. For example, recent research revealed that even though almost half of all maize produced is sold (44%), only an average of 23 percent is marketed at the household level (Warner et al. 2024). This indicates that while maize is widely sold by most smallholders, it is disproportionally sold by those with relatively larger farms. Therefore, maize is important for both own consumption as well as commercial sales and price movements are critical for understanding potential welfare impacts on both buyers and sellers. Research presented here outlines some important maize price relationships, including multi-year trends, interrelationships between Rwandan markets and seasonality. Overall, we find strong correlation between all markets suggesting a good degree of integration but persistent individual market prices above and below national averages as well as seasonality that generally conforms to maize’s main harvest period (Season A). This policy brief provides an overview of maize prices in Rwanda in order to enhance evidence-based policymaking for targeting recommendations aimed at more integrated and stable maize market prices throughout the country. For example, seasonal price changes suggest an annual average price fluctuation of approximately 30 percent and if targeted policies could reduce this seasonal price variation, smallholder welfare would likely be improved.

× This study describes the employment patterns of rural households in Rwanda and explores their challenges and opportunities for rural income diversification. Detailed analysis using a 2022 rural household smallholder survey on agricultural production and employment in Rwanda, reveals that: • Agricultural wage labor is the dominant source of off-farm income and is the primary means of supplementing rural household income. This is different than other LMICs where households are more likely to develop nonfarm enterprises that bring in extra income and diversify the rural economy towards more value-added output while also increasing demand for rural inputs. • This research suggests that factors like access to education and financial services are key factors to employment decisions and improved rural urban linkages.

× Transformation of the agri-food system (AFS) is a leading pathway to achieve the USG Global Food Security Strategy Objective 1 of “Inclusive agriculture-led growth”. The AFS encompasses the primary agricultural sector, as well as all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. An expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development. The Percent change in value-added in the agri-food system (AgGDP+) and Employment in the agri-food system (AgEMP+) indicators are useful to track this process.

× Rwanda has made remarkable economic progress during the past two decades, and its annual GDP growth rate reached more than 7 percent during the 2009 to 2019 period (NISR 2021). The rapid economic growth has been pro-poor, and the poverty rate fell from 58.9 percent in 2000/01 to 38.2 percent in 2016/17 (NISR 2018). The country has also emerged as a leader among sub-Saharan African countries in promoting innovation, gender equality, and an enabling business environment for development. The government remains strongly committed to a set of ambitious development goals, as set forth in the 2017–2024 National Strategy for Transformation (NST 1) and the corresponding sector-level strategic plans. While the global COVID-19 pandemic had a severe adverse effect on the economy, causing negative GDP growth in 2020, the country rebounded quickly and registered more than 10 percent growth in 2021 (NISR 2022). The country was only minimally affected by global commodity market disruptions resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 and the global recession in 2023 (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Looking forward, Rwanda’s GDP growth is projected to reach 6.7 percent in 2023 and 7.0 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), suggesting the economy is returning to its pre-pandemic high-growth trajectory.

× Rwanda is a recognized leader in the region and the world in terms of women’s empowerment. However, no country has yet achieved full gender equality, resulting in untapped potential for improvement. The findings from the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) baseline survey conducted in 2019 for the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI) indicate that women and men in Rwanda have both relatively high levels of empowerment across different agricultural domains, while many women are as empowered as men in their households, some gender disparities remain.

× Rwanda’s impressive economic growth over the past two decades has been accompanied by significant structural change in the broad economy and the agrifood system in particular. This note summarizes key results from a recent diagnostic of Rwanda’s agrifood system transformation, examining the effectiveness of productivity-led growth in different agricultural value chains for promoting development outcomes related to poverty, growth, employment, diet quality, and hunger.
The findings show that value chains differ in their effectiveness in promoting these different development outcomes. The wheat and sorghum value chain, for example, has strong anti-poverty effects and is effective at reducing hunger, but is less effective at increasing jobs. Trade-offs will emerge as no single value chain is most effective at achieving every desired outcome; therefore, promoting a few value chains jointly will diversify agrifood system growth and help achieve multiple development outcomes simultaneously.

× Although public spending under the fourth Strategic Plan for the Transformation of Agriculture 2018– 2021 (PSTA 4) is generally well structured and cost-effective, funding has been largely stagnant— and even declining, when measured in constant prices—during PSTA’s first four years. This note summarizes the effects of a modest reallocation of public spending under PSTA 4 towards greater cost-effectiveness, as well as a modest increase in PSTA 4 spending. Results draw on an economywide modeling tool designed to prioritize public resources around four key development goals: economic growth, employment creation, poverty reduction, and diet quality improvement.

× Rwanda’s fourth Strategic Plan for the Transformation of Agriculture (PSTA 4), which extends from 2018 to 2024, is currently at its midpoint. This note highlights the contribution of PSTA 4 in its first half (2018–2021) to four key development outcomes: economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, and diet quality improvement.

× International fertilizer prices have increased rapidly since 2020 due to multiple factors. This note assesses the impact of these price increases on Rwanda’s agriculture sector, with an emphasis on implications for crop production, subsidy costs, and the Government of Rwanda’s agricultural budget.
Using data from the Seasonal Agricultural Surveys, we simulate the impact of increasing fertilizer prices on fertilizer demand and use, which in turn affects fertilizer value-cost ratios at the plot level and, ultimately, maize, rice, and Irish potato output and the Government’s fertilizer subsidy bill. Findings indicate the following
• At current subsidy rates and market prices, national output across all seasons could decrease by up to 3 percent for maize, 2 percent for rice, and 12 percent for Irish potato under strong assumptions about farmers’ sensitivity to fertilizer prices. Weaker assumptions about their sensitivity result in much smaller decreases in output.
• At current subsidy rates and market prices, the fertilizer subsidy bill may increase from 7 percent of MINAGRI’s budget—inclusive of funds earmarked for districts—to 12 percent.
Ultimately, the policy challenge will be to determine whether a return to the original subsidy levels and rates is feasible and under what conditions. In the short term, volatility in international fertilizer prices may continue, particularly in light of the conflict in Ukraine, making it necessary to maintain the current subsidy regime. But I the medium term, it is possible to move towards market prices for fertilizer without dramatically affecting output, thereby providing more fiscal space for other priorities.

× As Rwanda journeys towards a broad-based social and economic transformation, there are opportunities for the country’s food systems to become a key driver on that journey. This idea has attracted considerable attention in the national consultations conducted in the run-up to the United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS) in September 2021, at the summit itself, in the post-summit actions that Rwanda is now pursuing, and in a series of prior case studies on Rwanda’s food system (Adolph et al. 2021; Guijt et al. 2021; Malabo Montpellier Panel 2021).
This note summarizes a recent diagnostic of Rwanda’s food systems and the policy landscape that shapes them. Emphasis is placed on six inter-related clusters: diet quality and nutrition security; livelihoods equity; environmental resilience; agricultural productivity; infrastructure capacity; and financing and investment.
Overall findings suggest an opportunity for a tangible shift in how public policy in Rwanda approaches its food systems and how the systems contribute to the broader national transformation process. We offer several policy recommendations to support the design of a coherent country strategy and policy framework. First, strengthen existing entities and mechanisms, and innovate on them. Second, develop a national food systems transformation strategy that is integrative, multi-sectoral, and action-oriented. Third, innovate on existing programs. Fourth, allow for learning through both success and failure. Fifth, invest in rigorous impact evaluation.

× Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen rapidly in recent months, driven in large part by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Other factors have contributed to the crisis, such as export bans and continued supply chain disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, between June 2021 and April 2022, the global prices of palm oil and wheat increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively. At the same time, the price of fertilizer doubled, while crude oil and natural gas prices have also risen substantially. However, wide variation also exists across commodities, with real maize prices increasing by only 11 percent, and rice prices declining by 13 percent (Figure 1).

× Rwanda’s policy response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences of the actions taken are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We used economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda. In this brief, we present a synopsis of the results of this analysis.
• During the six-week lockdown that began in March 2020, we estimate Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation.
• Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of economic recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1 to 1.6 billion).
• While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a no-COVID situation.
• During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points over the pre-COVID situation. While these figures are encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown.
Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s economic recovery will depend critically on expanding Rwanda’s social protection programs, supporting enterprises of all sizes, providing broad assistance to the agri-food system, and restoring international trade.

× In Rwanda, as elsewhere, different types of households experienced the economic effects of COVID-19 differently. We use a microsimulation approach to show the importance of these differences to better understand COVID-19’s impacts on their income and poverty status.
Main results:
Nationally, during the lockdown period between March and May 2020, the simulation results estimate declines in household income by 33 percent on average. The urban population experienced the largest declines, averaging 40 percent during this period.
Unlike patterns seen with other shocks, middle-income households experienced the sharpest declines in income during the lockdown of an estimated 33 to 35 percent.
The share of individuals falling into poverty was highest among those in urban, middle income (Ubudehe 2) households (27 percent). However, the greatest absolute number of individuals in poverty remained concentrated in rural areas during the lockdown.
Poor individuals in the lowest expenditure quintile remain in the most severe poverty, with average expenditures during the lockdown estimated at 54 percent below the poverty line.
Under both the fast and slow post-COVID economic recovery scenarios used in the simulations, household incomes nearly return to pre-COVID levels for all household categories by the end of 2020. However, these results do not capture the potential longterm impacts of the substantial shocks of the pandemic to incomes, assets, and individual wellbeing.
These modeling results suggest that targeting should be a central component of the design and implementation of social protection programs and economic recovery policies to support a diverse set of beneficiaries. These beneficiaries include rural farming households and poor households, as well as nonagricultural household, and households in the middle expenditure quintiles.

× The COVID-19 pandemic and the economic policy measures taken to prevent its spread led to a global recession in 2020 that was expected to cause significant increases in poverty and food insecurity in many countries. Households were expected to experience a “double whammy” of decreased incomes and rising food prices. This policy note examines whether food prices rose in Rwanda since the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020. The main findings from this price analysis suggest the following.
• Food prices did not significantly rise (or fall) during the COVID-19 pandemic in Rwanda.
• Prices of staple foods (cereals and other starches) declined following the pandemic’s onset in March 2020, while the prices of pulses (the second largest food consumption group in Rwanda after staple foods) experienced a seasonal spike at the end of 2021, but returned to below pre-pandemic levels throughout 2021.
• For most food groups, price trends in each province generally followed the national price trends during the pandemic, with the exception of poultry and eggs.
• Nationally, prices of poultry and eggs declined after the beginning of the pandemic, but these prices vary significantly by province, with prices in the Northern Province remaining above pre-pandemic levels and prices in all other provinces falling since the pandemic, with prices in Kigali City falling the most.
Overall, these results suggest that households in Rwanda were not hit by the “double whammy” of decreased incomes and rising food prices, since food prices remained stable Rather, they may instead have only suffered from decreased incomes. These findings suggest that continued efforts to expand Rwanda’s social protection programs are needed to boost household purchasing power and ensure that households are able to consume more – and more nutritious – foods.

× Despite significant progress, childhood stunting is still a serious public health concern in Rwanda. To make further progress in reduc-ing child stunting it is essential to understand the context-specific drivers of stunting to devise strategies to address these causes. The primary objective of this study was to assess the drivers of change in stunting reduction among children 0-59 months of age between 2005 and 2015 in Rwanda.

× Understanding the context-specific causes of child malnutrition, including those related to political commitment and program and policy coherence, is essential for effectively reducing the prevalence of nutrition-related problems such as stunting and anemia and their subsequent negative impacts on human and national development. Between 2005 and 2015 Rwanda made substantial progress in reducing malnutrition, reducing stunting and anemia among children < 5 years of age by 14 and 15 percentage points, respectively. Despite these improvements, stunting and anemia remain important nutrition issues for young children in Rwanda with the prevalence of stunting (38%) among the highest in the world [8]. Furthermore, stunting reduction has varied across the country with some districts experiencing declines in stunting (“reduced stunting districts”), while in others stunting has either increased or stayed the same (“non-reduced stunting districts”). To facilitate greater progress in reducing child malnutrition in Rwanda, we conducted a Stories of Change Study which aimed to document the drivers of stunting and anemia reduction in Rwanda, understand what may have contributed to the variation in stunting reduction across districts, and to understand the remaining nutrition problems and the potential barriers and facilitators to future progress. The overall goal is for these results to be used by program implementers and policymakers to refine programs and policies to further reduce child malnutrition in Rwanda. This study was modeled after similar studies conducted in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Odisha (India), Nepal, Senegal, and Zambia under the Stories of Change in Nutrition project.

× Since 2013, the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy (FSP) has combined multidisciplinary research on emergent issues facing food systems with policy analysis to provide an enabling environment for improved food security. Supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), FSP is implemented through a consortium of three research institutions: Michigan State University (MSU), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and the University of Pretoria. These policy research institutions, together with local institutions, have provided data and analysis that national and subnational governments and regional bodies can use to generate informed policies around food and food security. This engagement has involved supporting national governments’ and regional organizations’ agri-food system–related policy processes with evidence generated through applied research on food systems. This evidence enabled participants in those processes to consider the merits of various policy options with a stronger conceptual and applied understanding of the issues at stake. As outlined in Box 1, FSP efforts targeted five main activity areas, with a regional emphasis on Africa and Asia.

× The East Africa Dairy Development program successfully used the volunteer farmer trainer (VFT) approach in Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda. PIM-supported research on the VFT approach was in part responsible for its uptake by 21 development organizations in Rwanda. Three years after the end of the EADD program in Rwanda, VFTs are still training farmers with support from the government, NGOs, and producer organizations.

× Factors influencing the adoption of soil-fertility technologies (measured by soil testing and use of chemical fertilizers) in key areas of the southern province, where soil-fertility problems are prevalent and potentially impact the performance of the coffee sector, were studied. The results of the analysis, using household survey data, principal components, and linear discriminant analysis, show that farm fragmentation, age, wealth, and education are the most important factors influencing adoption of the two soil-fertility technologies.

× The 2000s were Africa’s “decade of growth.” Countries in Africa south of the Sahara reached milestones in the 21st century’s first decade that once seemed impossible, achieving improved governance, macroeconomic stability, and sustained economic growth that exceeded the region’s performance in previous decades. Among the economic sectors that improved was agriculture, which grew 3.4 percent per year over 2001-2010, outpacing Africa’s population growth rate, which was 2.5 percent, for the first time in the last three decades. Nevertheless, the agricultural sector’s growth has lagged behind national economic growth in Africa. Given

× The war and accompanying Tutsi genocide of the early 1990s devastated Rwanda’s agricultural research agencies, and they continue to face challenges related to the resulting loss of human resource capacity and physical infrastructure. Nevertheless, since then the country has made progress in rebuilding its agricultural research and development (R&D) system. As of 2009, investment in agricultural R&D totaled 3.6 billion Rwandan francs or 19.2 million PPP dollars, both in 2005 constant prices, which represents a slight increase over 2005 levels, largely due to modest growth in the higher education sector after 2007 (Figure 1; Table 1). Unless otherwise stated, all dollar values in this note are expressed in purchasing power parity (PPP) prices.1