Discussion Papers

The changing demographics in food systems and implications for future youth engagement in Rwanda

Food systems are critically important for food security and employment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Moreover, expansion of nonfarm components of food systems (FS) reinforces efforts to transition out of agriculture. FS, particularly off-farm segments of food value chains, must grow rapidly to guarantee food and nutrition security for growing populations and to provide the quantity and variety of food demanded as a result of increases in urbanization and income, as well as to accommodate accompanying technological and other changes. The impact, inevitability, and amenability to policy interventions of these factors and the extent of FS transformation needed differs across countries. Future FS also face several emerging challenges. Employment and job creation are among the areas that are significantly affected by FS transformation. Demographic changes that accompany expanding FS employment are also critical for gender equity and youth inclusion. The extent, speed, and complementarity of the FS transformation and increased employment varies across countries. However, there is currently no system in place to monitor the extent of FS transformation or its interactions with other aspects of the economy, such as employment. This study of Rwanda uses secondary data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) (2023), World Bank (2023), and Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey (EICV) (2023) to investigate demographic trends in overall FS employment and who is and is not engaging in FS; and to document sectoral and overall economic growth, population and demographic changes, and urbanization trends—all which influence and are influenced by FS growth. The study contributes to the literature by testing the predicted patterns of employment growth and inclusiveness in agrifood systems, and by pointing to the nodes of employment in FS where gender- and age-based inequities exist, thereby facilitating policymaking and interventions to ameliorate the problems. In addition, tracking performance in employment-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Rwanda contributes to our understanding of the progress made in SSA toward inclusiveness, efficiency, and poverty reduction, particularly progress that benefits women and the youth. Rwanda’s economy grew remarkably during the two decades covered in the study (2001–2022). Agriculture contributed significantly to gross domestic product (GDP) as well as to overall and FS employment. Per capita income more than doubled, although it still is about half the average GDP per capita of SSA. The population, threequarters of whom are under 35 years of age, increased by 70% during the period. There have been great strides in education, particularly for girls and women. However, urbanization has been slow, and half of the country’s urban residents live in the capital city. The unemployment rate in Rwanda has been twice the SSA average and has generally been increasing. More than half of the workers are employed in agriculture, although this share declined considerably during the period. Farming contributes significantly to FS employment. However, the share of overall FS employment declined during the period, due to a decline in farming employment accompanied by stagnant employment in non-farm FS. Relative to men, women’s overall labor force participation rate is considerably lower and their unemployment rate higher. A larger share of women work in low-skill jobs and this gap increased during the period; a relatively larger share of women are employed in FS, but a smaller share work in the nonfarm component of FS and this gender gap widened. Similarly, relative to mature adults, youth are less advantaged. The labor force participation rate of youth is considerably lower, and the rate of unemployment is higher and increasing relatively faster among youth. However, differences in FS employment among youth and mature adults were considerably lower and shown no clear trend. Findings of this study point to several short- and long-run policy implications.

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

This paper uses machine learning, simulation, and data mining methods to develop Systematic Risk Profiles of three developing economies: Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. We focus on three exogenous shocks with implications for economic performance: world market prices, capital flows, and climate-driven sectoral productivity. In these and other developing countries, recent decades have been characterized by increased risks associated with all these factors, and there is a demand for instruments that can help to disentangle them. For each country, we utilize historical data to develop multi-variate distributions of shocks. We then sample from these distributions to obtain a series of shock vectors, which we label economic uncertainty scenarios. These scenarios are then entered into economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models for the three countries, which allow us to quantify the impact of increased uncertainty on major economic indicators. Finally, we utilize importance metrics from the random forest machine learning algorithm and relative importance metrics from multiple linear regression models to quantify the importance of country-specific risk factors for country performance. We find that Malawi and Rwanda are more vulnerable to sectoral productivity shocks, and Kenya is more exposed to external risks. These findings suggest that a country’s level of development and integration into the global economy are key driving forces defining their risk profiles. The methodology of Systematic Risk Profiling can be applied to many other countries, delineating country-specific risks and vulnerabilities.

Quantifying food losses in the beans value chain in Rwanda: Analysis and results from a baseline survey

At the global level, awareness about the significance of food loss and waste has grown significantly over the past decade. The international community has taken the matter to hand as part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and has committed to “halve the per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer level and reduce food losses along production and supply chains, including post-harvest losses” by 2030.

Costs and returns in Rwandan smallholder agricultural production: Gross margins and profitability analyses

This paper explores crop commercialization among smallholder agricultural households in Rwanda from a cost and revenue perspective to determine profitability at the farm level. We use standard revenue and cost equations to assess the commercial viability of the smallholders. In general, we find that a household’s total crop production creates positive returns even if implicit costs, such as own family labor and fertilizer subsidies, are included. Specifically, over 80 percent of our sample households generated positive economic returns from farming— referred to as demonstrating a positive gross economic margin (GEM). However, if only crop market sales and market input costs are used in the calculations, only 40 percent of agricultural households generated positive returns—referred to as demonstrating a positive gross marketing margin (GMM). Most of the explanation for this difference is that the typical farm household sells only about one-third of its crop production by value. This outcome suggests that many agricultural households continue to focus on cultivating food crops for their own consumption and do not specialize in commercial production. This is to be expected in an economic context where input, credit, and commodity markets are still developing, production decisions are still shaped by high levels of weather and market risk, and production risk management options are limited, among many other factors. The results of this research provide a better understanding of how Rwandan smallholders might move towards higher value production, with the ultimate goal being to increase household revenues and welfare and accelerate the country’s economic transformation.

Rural income diversification in Rwanda: Opportunities and challenges

The Government of Rwanda continues to work to accelerate structural transformation to expand and diversify the country’s economy. High rural population density and small agricultural landholdings are driving workers from agricultural households to seek employment outside of farming. Using representative data on agricultural production and employment for rural households in Rwanda from 2022, this research evaluates the opportunities rural households have to diversify their labor portfolios. We find that, rather than nonfarm household enterprises developing to meet greater rural service and goods demand, agriculture wage labor is the dominant source of off-own-farm employment. However, such informal agricultural wage labor is seen as low-productivity work and is among the lowest paid. Among nonfarm employment options, nonfarm businesses generate less income than nonagricultural wage labor, likely reflecting high barriers to entrepreneurship and low demand for off-farm services in rural areas.

In contrast to employment profiles from other low-income countries, we find that the probability of a worker from an agricultural household in Rwanda engaging in rural, off-farm wage labor decreases as household welfare increases. Agricultural households that have workers seeking to hire out their labor tend to have the smallest landholdings, while households that hire in labor have the largest landholdings. Additionally, households with a higher share of members who completed primary education are less likely to hire out their labor, especially for agriculture wage work. These results suggest that programs that offer support services to agricultural households, such as financial services and affordable and relevant education, may be important in incentivizing these households to engage in entrepreneurship and form their own businesses or to seek wage employment in more remunerative sectors than agriculture.

Assessing agricultural extension agent digital readiness in Rwanda

Effective agricultural extension and advisory services are a key component of efforts to achieve sustainable agricultural production, resilient livelihoods, and inclusive economic growth. These are all necessary elements for accelerating Rwanda’s agricultural transformation. Both extension and information and communication technologies (ICT) are important elements in Rwanda’s Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation. This paper examines the capacities of public and private agricultural extension agents in Rwanda and their readiness to use ICT in their work—that is, to be digitally equipped—and provides recommendations for enhancing agricultural extension capacities through expanding and effectively using ICT.
To examine capacities and readiness, we use a representative survey of 500 public and private extension agents in Rwanda, augmented by qualitative data from a literature review and key informant interviews. To assess agents’ ‘digital readiness,’ we create two indices focused on their digital experiences and attitudes toward digital modernization.

Synopsis: Agricultural Mechanization in Rwanda

Optimal agricultural mechanization strategies in Rwanda can be better informed by a closer assessment of diverse production environments and experiences in other countries with similar topography. The findings from Rwanda’s latest agricultural surveys, review of recent experiences in countries with rugged terrain and smallholder farming systems similar to Rwanda and reviewing mechanization support strategies from other countries suggest that identifying mechanization technologies suitable for different types of farms, promoting greater private-sector innovations while focusing on the relevant public goods aspect of mechanization is the most promising way forward. Key findings include the following:
• Variations in agroecology and cropping systems, irrigated/rainfed systems, farm size, and labor use intensity, among other factors, characterize the key types of mechanization use in Rwanda.
• In the medium term, smallholders cultivating rainfed maize and legumes, in addition to irrigated rice, can benefit from the use of tractors, as well as irrigation pumps.
• However, farm wages may still be too low and tractor-hiring fees may still be too high in Rwanda to induce a shift to mechanization in the short term.
• Policy support for mechanization can focus on improving the understanding of mechanization needs among each type of farmers identified, knowledge of suitable machines, and required skills for their operations and maintenance.
• Developing competitive markets and supply networks for promising machines, parts, and repair services at a viable and integrated market scale is also important.

Identifying farm typologies in Rwandan agriculture: A framework for improving targeted interventions

This paper explores the broad spectrum of commercial engagement by Rwandan farmers by grouping farmers according to characteristics of the head of household, the degree of commercialization of their farms, size of livestock holdings and other factors.

We use statistical methodologies, including factor and cluster analysis, combined with existing knowledge of the agricultural sector to define five types of Rwandan farmers, separated into two broad groups. The first group (Group A) includes three types broadly classified as less wealthy, less commercialized, with a net negative gross margin. Within this group the three types of farmers include: Type 1—Less commercialized older male headed households with larger families, Type 2—Better educated, youth headed households, who are more market oriented but have smaller land holdings, Type 3—Older female headed households who produce relatively lower agricultural production value relative to their assets owned.

The second group (Group B) comprises two types of farmers. This group are wealthier, sell more crops with positive gross margins and larger landholdings. More specifically, farm type 4 is commercialized with higher access to agricultural extension services and inputs and farm type 5, also highly commercialized, but has significant livestock holdings as well.

Taken together, these two groups, and five farm types, provide a framework to aid in understanding how commercialization takes place in smallholder Rwandan agriculture. This framework may also help in understanding how potential interventions would be received by various types of Rwanda farmers, thereby facilitating more efficient targeting of agricultural interventions.

Crop commercialization in Rwanda: Current market participation and drivers

In this paper, we explore the current levels and participation of crop commercialization by Rwandan smallholder farmers. Our basic unit of analysis is total crop sales divided by the total value of crop production, either at the household or specific crop level. Overall, our findings suggest that approximately 80 percent of farmers participate in crop market sales and sell an average of 33 percent of their total production. However, there is a wide variety of percentage sales by crop and, in general, higher-valued crops are sold by more commercialized farm households. We also find that value of crop production per hectare rises with greater commercialization, suggesting that developing greater market commercialization, particularly with more valuable crops, may increase household incomes and aid in the economic transformation.

Agricultural mechanization policy options in Rwanda

This paper summarizes general demand- and supply-side issues for agricultural mechanization based on recent studies that focus on experiences and evidence from both Africa and Asia. The paper pro vides typologies of agricultural mechanization in Rwanda along with policy options within the context of its current mechanization support strategies. Provincial variations in agroecology and cropping systems, irrigated/rainfed systems, farm size, and labor use intensity, among other factors, characterize the key types of mechanization use in Rwanda. Support for mechanization in Rwanda can be broadly tailored to (a) irrigated medium-scale farmers in the Eastern province and Kigali; (b) rainfed medium-scale farmers in the Eastern and Southern provinces; (c) rainfed, small-scale highland farmers in the Northern province; and (d) irrigated small-scale farmers in the Western province. Recent experiences in other countries with rugged terrain and smallholder farming systems similar to Rwanda suggest that significant growth in the use of tractors is possible in the medium term among smallholders cultivating rainfed maize and legumes, in addition to irrigated rice. However, farm wages may still be too low in Rwanda and tractor-hiring fees may still be too high to induce a shift to mechanization in the short term. Therefore, it may be advisable for policy support for mechanization to focus on improving the understanding of mechanization needs among each type of farmers identified, knowledge of suitable machines, and required skills for their operations and maintenance. Such efforts should also balance the need to develop competitive markets and supply networks for promising machines, parts, and repair services at a viable and integrated market scale.

Rwanda smallholder agriculture commercialization survey: Overview using selected categorical variables

This report provides a comprehensive statistical overview of agricultural household data collected by IFPRI from a smallholder commercialization survey in late 2022. Sampled to be representative to the provincial level, ten households were surveyed in 202 villages for a total of 2,020 households interviewed. The survey covers a wide range of topics including household demographics, agricultural farm holdings, input use, crop choice, levels of commercialization and other non-farm sources of income. The statistical tables are generally presented by principal categorical variables of interest which include provinces, gender and age of household head (youth/mature), as well as size of land holdings. These designations are meant to provide general insights into the current state of agricultural households in Rwanda. Building on this report, future research, on more specific topics of interest, will be performed to build a more comprehensive understanding of agricultural household economic behavior for broader understanding as well as potential policy engagement.

Women’s empowerment in Rwandan agriculture: A baseline assessment in the context of Rwanda’s gender and youth mainstreaming strategy and the fourth strategic plan for agricultural transformation

Rwanda is a recognized leader in the region and in the world in terms of women’s empowerment. However, no country has yet achieved full gender equality, resulting in untapped potential. The findings from the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) baseline survey conducted in 2019 for the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI), indicated that women and men in Rwanda both have relatively high levels of empowerment across different agricultural do mains, and most women are as empowered as men in their households. This working paper dis cusses the findings further and in the context of MINAGRI’s Gender and Youth Mainstreaming Strategy that was also launched in 2019, as well as the Fourth Strategic Plan for Agricultural Transformation (PSTA 4). Key findings include the following. • Compared to other countries in the region, women in Rwanda have relatively greater access to financial services and a relatively lower time burden in agriculture. • However, when compared to men in Rwanda, inequalities persist. Women are significantly less likely than men to access financial services, participate in the marketing of agricultural commodities, access extension services, and spend their time on productive (rather than reproductive) work. By adapting and promoting innovative and gender-inclusive financial products, shifting gendered cultural norms, providing extension to both the household head and the spouse, and investing in time-saving technologies and innovations, there are opportunities to reduce the gender gap in agriculture and increase agricultural productivity. Realization of these outcomes will depend partly on the implementation of the Gender and Youth Mainstreaming Strategy and PSTA 4, and partly on coordination with other gender-transformative programs in Rwanda.

Valuing control over income and time use: A field experiment in Rwanda

Agricultural development programs often aim to increase women’s incomes and to enhance their control over family resources by offering new work opportunities, but as an unintended negative consequence, these programs may further increase women’s already heavy workloads. By means of a lab-in-the-field experiment in rural Rwanda, we elicit men’s and women’s valuations of control over income, time use, and trade-offs between them. We find that women are willing to sacrifice more household income to increase their control over income than their husbands are. However, the magnitude of respondents’ valuations of control over income is low. On the other hand, both women and men place a high value on time, and this relationship does not vary by gender. Consequently, development programs introducing time-saving practices, technologies, and services may have more positive welfare impacts than programs that primarily increase control over monetary resources.

Landscape analysis of early childhood development and agriculture in Bangladesh, Kenya, Peru, Rwanda, and Sri Lanka

In low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), 40% of pre-school-aged children have poor development, which undermines educational attainment and earnings later in life. To reach their full developmental potential, children require adequate nutrition, good health, responsive care, and opportunities for early learning. Early childhood development (ECD) interventions can mitigate multiple risk factors related to responsive care and opportunities for early learning, whereas agricultural interventions can mitigate health and nutrition risk factors. In addition, organic farming and agroecological interventions more broadly can promote ECD by reducing pesticide exposure, a known environmental risk factor for poor ECD. Despite this potential of individual interventions to promote and protect ECD, evidence is lacking on the potential additive or synergistic effects of combining agricultural and ECD interventions. Moreover, little is known about the acceptability and feasibility of combining agricultural and ECD interventions among different stakeholders (e.g., beneficiaries, implementers). To date, most agricultural and ECD interventions to promote and protect child outcomes in LMICs have largely been conducted in rural settings. Thus, little is known about what the design of these types of interventions could look like in urban and peri-urban settings.

Policy options for fertilizer subsidy reforms in Rwanda: A simulation-based analysis and synthesis of prior studies

Agricultural input subsidies are a prominent feature in the 2018-2024 Strategic Plan for Agricultural Transformation (PSTA 4), which is designed and implemented by the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI). By reducing the cost of improved seed and inorganic fertilizers, subsidies are designed to accelerate the use of these productivity-enhancing inputs, thereby increasing agricultural yields and output, increasing rural incomes while reducing food prices, and improving food security in line with PSTA 4’s targets. However, questions arise about whether the current input subsidy rates and levels are sufficient to increase crop production and meet the PSTA 4 targets, and whether the subsidy system can be expanded in the current economic climate and fiscal situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and spike in global fertilizer prices. This paper examines the impact of an increase in the price of fertilizer in Rwanda using seasonal production data from National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) in a microsimulation model aimed at three priority crops—maize, rice, and Irish potato—and the three main fertilizers in use—diammonium phosphate (DAP), urea, and NPK.

Food budget allocation efficiency: A missing component to help identify robust nutrition policies, with application to Rwanda

This paper presents two interrelated innovations to help identify diet-related nutrition policies. The first involves the development of a food budget allocation efficiency measure to quantify suboptimal food preferences, which is one key explanation of poor diets in addition to unaffordability. The second relates to the application of stochastic dominance to a portfolio of dietrelated nutrition policies, defined by various levels of allocation efficiency and affordability. As no full specification is needed, the latter technique is particularly useful when lacking normative guidelines regarding the relative importance of nutrient deficiencies within one-dimensional diet quality measures as well as the exact content of culture-sensitive diets. The analytical innovations are illustrated using a 2013/14 household consumption survey of Rwanda, a country characterized by both high calorie and micronutrient deficiencies. The origins of these poor nutritional outcomes can be traced back to various combinations and levels of affordability and allocation efficiency constraints. By only excluding the most inequality averse diet quality pecification, which may help to account for measurement error, a robust set of policy recommendations can be formulated for two thirds of all observations, most of which should focus on awareness raising activities.

Rwanda’s food systems transformation: A diagnostic of the public policy landscape shaping the transformation process

This paper provides a diagnostic of Rwanda’s food systems and the policy landscape that shapes it. It aims to inform national and local conversations on Rwanda’s food systems transformation—an idea that has attracted considerable attention in national consultations conducted in the run-up to the United Nations Food Systems Summit in September 2021, at the summit itself, and in the post-summit actions that Rwanda is now pursuing. A food system comprises the full range of actors and activities originating from agriculture, livestock, forestry, or fisheries, as well as the broader economic, societal, and natural environments in which they operate. An inclusive and sustainable food systems transformation is a process of growth and development that is profitable for the full range of individual actors engaged in the system, beneficial for society including marginalized and vulnerable groups, and advantageous for the natural environment. Rwanda’s journey towards a food systems transformation is well captured in Vision 2050, the National Strategy for Transformation (NST 1), and strategic plans for sectors such as agriculture, health, nutrition, commerce, and the environment. Their priorities are echoed in ongoing programs and investments of the government, its development partners, the private sector, and civil society. Nonetheless, there are still challenges facing Rwanda’s efforts to sustain and accelerate progress along this journey. Efforts to overcome these challenges call for a deeper and more significant shift in thinking—informed by the food systems perspective—that is highlighted by stronger multi-sectoral approaches to problem-solving. Overall findings suggest an opportunity for a tangible shift in how public policy in Rwanda approaches its food systems and how the systems contribute to the broader national transformation process. This means addressing how balances are struck—and tradeoffs are managed—between and among agriculture, nutrition, health, and the environment in the face of a climate crisis. It also means giving greater attention to the demand-side drivers in Rwanda’s food system, recognizing that singularly focused supply-side strategies rarely succeed in isolation. Finally, it means deepening the integration of policies and policy actors in the design and implementation phases of interventions that shape the food system. We offer several recommendations to translate abstract ideas into a coherent and focused set of actions in the policy space. 1. Strengthen existing entities and mechanisms rather than create new ones. 2. Develop a national food systems transformation strategy that is integrative, multi-sectoral, and action-oriented. 3. Innovate on existing programs. 4. Allow for learning through both success and failure. 5. Invest in rigorous impact evaluation. These actions aim to strengthen the policy environment that enables a truly broad-based food systems transformation. This enabling environment is itself an outcome of broad-based national conversations, integration across sectors, domains, and levels; and the encouragement of policy and program innovation.

Public investment prioritization for Rwanda’s inclusive agricultural transformation: Evidence from rural investment and policy analysis modeling

As Rwanda is expected to return to its rapid growth trajectory following the COVID-19 pandemic, agriculture will continue to play a central role in the structural transformation of the entire economy. To this end, the Government of Rwanda continues to invest in the agricultural sector by building on Strategic Plans for the Transformation of Agriculture (PSTAs) that began in the early 2000s. The challenging question is how to prioritize public expenditures across a broad portfolio of policies and programs. Ambitious plans, whether in the short or long term, require difficult decisions. The prioritization of public investment becomes even more complex as Rwanda’s structural transformation advances and as new investments—beyond the farm—become critically important for the agricultural sector. The structural transformation process itself means that as agriculture becomes more integrated with the rest of the economy, public resource allocations need to address a wider range of issues across the entire food system; these include nutrition-sensitive food production systems, inclusive value chain development, nonfarm rural enterprise development, and climate-resilient sustainable intensification of both crops and livestock.
This study provides evidence that is designed to assist the Government of Rwanda in its selection of agricultural policy, investment, and expenditure portfolios that reflect the country’s broad focus on its food system and structural transformation. This process of prioritization will need to incorporate multiple public investments targeting multiple development outcomes and will need to be grounded in the costeffective use of public resources in a largely market-led transformation process. This data-driven and evidence-based approach must critically underpin an informed investment prioritization process that helps achieve ambitious targets in an environment constrained by limited public resources. The study uses the Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide model developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), with contributions from colleagues at the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI), the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN) and the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR). The study draws on data from multiple sources as well as expert insights to inform the application of RIAPA’s Agricultural Investment for Data Analyzer (AIDA) module as a tool to measure the impacts of alternative public expenditure options on multiple development outcomes. Using this integrated modeling framework, the study links agricultural and rural development spending to four specific outcomes: economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, and diet quality improvement; at the same time, it considers the synergies and tradeoffs associated with the different investment options in the transformation process.
The paper first assesses the contribution of public expenditures to agricultural and rural development under the fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 4) that extends between 2018 and 2024. These findings are important, given the fact that since the beginning of PSTA 4, the budget allocated to MINAGRI (measured in constant prices) has stagnated. Our results suggest that increased spending on agriculture is well justified and that such spending is essential if the Government of Rwanda is to achieve its long-term development goals.

Using outcome trajectory evaluation to assess HarvestPlus’ contribution to the development of national biofortification breeding programs

While the key role that policy plays in sustainable development has long been recognized, rigorously documenting the influence of research on policy outcomes faces conceptual, empirical and even political challenges. Addressing these challenges is increasingly urgent since improving policies—broadly defined—is at the heart of the structural transformation agenda. This paper describes the use of a new evaluation method—outcomes trajectory evaluation (OTE), based on both evaluation and policy process theory—to explore the influence of HarvestPlus, a large and complex research for development program focused on improving nutrition, on a specific policy outcome, namely the establishment of crop biofortification breeding programs in national agricultural research institutes in Bangladesh, India and Rwanda. The findings support claims of significant HarvestPlus contributions to the establishment of the programs while also raising issues that need to be monitored moving forward to ensure sustainability. The paper also discusses the pros and cons of the OTE approach in terms of both methodological rigor and program learning. In particular, the fact that HarvestPlus is a long-running program allows us to reflect on how a “backward looking” approach such as OTE builds on and complements the more “forward looking,” theory of change-based approaches that informed HarvestPlus programming and evaluation during its earlier, highly-successful phases. Such a long-run perspective is rare in development evaluation and it offers important lessons for how to think about and plan for evaluation over the course of a complex agriculture research for development program.

Rwanda’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation

This paper assesses the structure of Rwanda’s current and evolving agrifood system and its contribution to national development. The paper reiterates the point that Rwanda’s agrifood system stretches well beyond primary agriculture and creates jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. While off-farm components of Rwanda’s agrifood system have generally grown more rapidly than primary agriculture in recent years, growth varies across value chains of the agrifood system in the studied period. The growth diagnostic in this paper reveals that it is domestic markets that have driven the recent growth in Rwanda’s AFS other than exports. The paper’s forward-looking analysis assesses potentially differential impacts of value-chain development efforts on broad development outcomes. The analysis measures the synergies and trade-offs of value-chain development in the context of an inclusive agricultural transformation. Such analysis is conducted using the Rwanda Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – an adaption of IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model to the Rwandan context.
The modeling results indicate that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving development goals and there are significant trade-offs among different development goals from promoting a specific value chain. The value chains that make a larger contribution to growth or job creation are not necessarily effective in reducing poverty or improving dietary quality – for example, value chains for coffee and tea – while value chains that play an important role in improving dietary quality may contribute less to job creation – such as vegetables or fruits. While there is no single value chain that can achieve all development goals effectively, it is possible to select a diversified set of value chains that complement each other in achieving different development goals. This latter strategy is a more realistic approach to growth and development.

Farmers’ demand for quality and nutritionally enhanced sweetpotato planting material: Evidence from experimental auctions in Rwanda

Most farmers source sweetpotato vines from neighboring farmers or from cuttings taken from
their own plots during the previous season. In the absence of “clean” vines prepared with more
attentive production practices, farmer-to-farmer vine exchanges and own-saved vines tends to
encourage the accumulation of pests and diseases that ultimately affect yields. In addition, the
perishability and bulkiness of its primary propagation material – vines – there is relatively little
articulated demand for vines through either market or non-market exchanges. In addition,
demand for nutritionally rich variety and biofortified crop orange-fleshed sweetpotato (OFSP) is
limited because of multiple factors including farmers’ unfamiliarity with the product and its
novel attributes such as its high beta carotene content, the search costs incurred in locating the
product, and information asymmetries between buyer and seller about the quality and
performance of the product. We investigate demand for quality vine and nutritional attribute of
the crop using a second price experimental auction approach by determine the premium price
farmers are willing to pay for these attributes and investigate drivers of demand. In the absence
of information on the source of vines, maturity and resistance to diseases, farmers are willing to
pay a premium of about 35 Rwandan Francs for high quality vines sourced from decentralized
vine multipliers. However, on provision of information on the source of vines, maturity and
resistance to diseases of the vines, the premium price increases significantly to 133.71 Rwandan
francs and to 107.22 Rwandan Francs after provision of visual information depicting the
performance of the vines in demonstration plots. The premium price also increases significantly
for vines sourced from neighbors to about 74.35 Rwandan francs, which further increases to
151.53 Rwandan francs when nutrition information is provided to the farmers. The study also
revealed that demand for high quality vines is correlated with sex of household head, sex of the
respondent, age of the respondent in years, household size, membership in a farmer
organization, information from neighbors/other farmers, access to marshland, females make
agriculture decisions in the household among other factors. In terms of policy, there is need to
promote importance of quality vine and nutritional value of OFSP through sensitization on the
field demonstration and nutritional values.

Assessing market price dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic in Rwanda

The COVID-19 pandemic and the economic measures taken to prevent its spread led to a global recession in 2020 that was expected to cause significant increases in poverty and food insecurity in many countries. Households were expected to experience a “double whammy” of decreased incomes and rising food prices. This examines whether food prices rose in Rwanda since the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020. The main findings from this price analysis suggest the following. • Food prices did not significantly rise (or fall) during the COVID-19 pandemic in Rwanda. • Prices of staple foods (cereals and other starches) declined following the pandemic’s onset in March 2020, while the prices of pulses (the second largest food consumption group in Rwanda after staple foods) experienced a seasonal spike at the end of 2021, but returned to below pre-pandemic levels throughout 2021. • For most food groups, price trends in each province generally followed the national price trends during the pandemic, with the exception of poultry and eggs. • Nationally, prices of poultry and eggs declined after the beginning of the pandemic, but these prices vary significantly by province, with prices in the Northern Province remaining above pre-pandemic levels and prices in all other provinces falling since the pandemic, with prices in Kigali City falling the most. Overall, these results suggest that households in Rwanda were not hit by the “double whammy” of decreased incomes and rising food prices, since food prices remained stable Rather, they may instead have only suffered from decreased incomes. These findings suggest that continued efforts to expand Rwanda’s social protection programs are needed to boost household purchasing power and ensure that households are able to consume more – and more nutritious – foods.

Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Rwanda: A microsimulation approach

In Rwanda, as in other countries, different types of households will experience the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic differently. We use a microsimulation approach to highlight the importance of these differences and to draw attention to the diversified livelihood strategies of Rwandan households in order to fully understand COVID-19’s impacts on their income and poverty status. Our approach complements macro-level assessments of COVID-19’s economic impacts, focusing on the contribution of the income sources, asset holdings, and location (urban/rural) of households to understanding these differential effects.

Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri-food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach

Rwanda’s response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We use economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda. - Results show that during the six-week lockdown that began in March, Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation in the same period. - Results further show that Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of the recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1–1.6 billion). - While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a noCOVID situation. - During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points. While these figures may be encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown. Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s recovery will depend critically on the expansion of Rwanda’s social protection programs, boosting enterprises of all sizes, support to the agri-food system, and restoration of international trade.

Drivers of youth engagement in agriculture: Insights from Guatemala, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Uganda

Engaging burgeoning youth populations in developing country agriculture is seen as an important strategy toward effective, efficient, and sustainable food system transformation. Yet the policy, institutional, technological, and capability barriers and ways to overcome them for successful participation of youth in agriculture are not fully understood. We use a conceptual framework that identifies key pathways to prosperity for youth and classifies contextual and driving factors that contribute to the success of youth engagement in agriculture. The framework comprises four broad categories of strategic interventions: and socioeconomic environment; institutional; technological/business infrastructure; and individual skills and capacities. In the context of this framework, we then present insights from cases of youth participation in agriculture in five countries: Guatemala, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Uganda. The countries and cases were purposively selected as part of ongoing research on youth engagement in agriculture. Policies and strategies play an important role in creating an enabling environment for youth engagement in agriculture, including by fostering transparency and accountability in the system and promoting youth engagement in the private sector through agricultural extension and other services. Institutions and intermediaries provide financial support, training, and access to market for youth entrepreneurs. Support in these areas should be strengthened. Systems approaches, such as multi-stakeholder platforms, provide holistic support to young agripreneurs (entrepreneurs in agriculture), but require effective coordination. Similarly, information and communication technologies can play a facilitating role by providing platforms to network and receive updated market information but need to be significantly scaled up. Individual capacities can drive youth engagement in agriculture and agripreneurship but must continue to be built up through expanded education and training on technical and functional skills. As policymakers and program managers search for interventions that can promote youth involvement in agriculture in their own countries, the insights from the five countries examined that are presented in this paper may be useful for identifying context-specific challenges and pathways to successful youth engagement in agriculture in their own countries. The framework presented here can be applied to study youth engagement issues in any country or in sub-national, decentralized contexts to generate evidence to guide the design of youth-in-agriculture development programs. There is a need to support, strengthen, and implement the driving factors identified in this paper for expanding youth engagement in agriculture.

African commitments for agricultural development goals and milestones for Rwanda

The study developed a results framework to analyze Rwanda’s progress towards selected CAADP/Malabo, SDGs and Agenda 2063 goals. A Computable General Equilibrium model linked to an income distribution Micro-Simulation model were used to identify priority investment areas for accelerated agricultural growth, poverty and inequality reduction. The current investment trend simulated in the baseline scenario would leave Rwanda off-track to meet these objectives. The analysis of alternative agricultural investment scenarios shows that enhancing the role of the private sector in agriculture will be critical in curbing supply side constraints. The government plays a central role by creating an environment and making the sector more attractive to private investors. Developments outside of the agricultural sector and social protection will be critical to further reduce poverty. Productivity remains one of the major challenges but also one of the most effective solutions for accelerated agricultural growth in Rwanda. Agricultural investments should be designed considering the agricultural value-chain.

Social network effects on consumer willingness to pay for biofortified crops

This study investigated the effects of social networks on consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for two high-iron bean (HIB) varieties (HIB-A and HIB-B) using data collected from 572 farmers in rural Rwanda. The study used the Becker-DeGroot-Marshak mechanism to elicit consumer WTP in the absence and presence of radio messages providing positive and negative frames of information on nutritional benefits of HIB varieties at different frequencies. Instrumental variable and random effects models were used to assess the determinants of WTP.

Land consolidation, specialization, and household diets: Evidence from Rwanda

Despite rapid population growth, increasing land pressure and urbanization, farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa have not intensified their production in a sustainable manner and farming systems remain predominantly subsistence-oriented. Unsurprisingly, developing countries are directing large shares of their agricultural budgets to programs that actively promote crop intensification and the development of more commercially-oriented agricultural systems. Rwanda’s Crop Intensification Program (CIP), launched in 2007, is one such example. However, despite its apparent success in raising production of several priority crops, there are legitimate concerns about the food and nutrition security implications for households that are encouraged to consolidate their land, specialize in their production, and increasingly rely on markets for their food needs. Using recent household survey data and a propensity score matching difference-in-differences method, we find that participation in land consolidation activities had ambiguous consumption effects: it positively impacted on consumption of roots and tubers, but had a negative effect on meat, fish and fruits consumption and the potential availability of vitamin B12 in participants’ diets. This calls for a review of CIP implementation practices to enhance the program’s food and nutrition security outcomes, with improvements in market functioning and market access being potential starting points.

Demand-pull creation, public officer’s endorsement, and consumer willingness-to-pay for nutritious iron beans in rural and urban Rwanda

Several studies have suggested demand-pull creation in urban areas as a strategy to drive the adoption of novel agricultural products in rural areas. However, questions remain about whether urban consumers have preferences that are similar to those of rural smallholder producers who produce what they consume. This paper compares urban and rural consumers’ preferences for novel agricultural products by using the case of biofortified iron beans in Rwanda; tests the effects of two marketing levers in field experiments using the Becker-DeGroot-Marshak mechanism; and examines the effect of a public officer’s endorsement on consumer demand for iron beans, along with, and the impact of, information length to inform the design of cost-effective marketing strategies for iron beans. The study results show that with or without information on the nutritional benefits of iron beans, rural and urban consumers have similar preferences for one of the two varieties of iron beans tested, which suggests an avenue for demand-pull creation in the urban area. However, the length of the information and a public officer’s endorsement have no significant effect on consumer demand for iron beans. This paper suggests that providing cogent information on the nutritional benefits could alone be effective in branding and marketing iron beans.

What will it take for biofortification to have impact on the ground? Theories of change for three crop-country combinations

These theories of change were developed to help the HarvestPlus program deliver on its planned outcomes and impacts. HarvestPlus expects to contribute to the reduction in micronutrient deficiency among women and children in rural areas of developing countries through the breeding and dissemination of staple crop varieties with increased levels of key micronutrients. After ten years of breeding, economic, and nutrition research to develop and assess varieties and their potential impact on human nutritional outcomes, HarvestPlus is entering a third five-year phase focused on delivering micronutrient-rich varieties at scale in nine target countries. To support program design, implementation, and evaluation in the “delivery” phase of the HarvestPlus program (2014–2018), theories of change were developed for three crop-country combinations—maize in Zambia, beans in Rwanda, and cassava in Nigeria—to describe how HarvestPlus expects to contribute to the outcome of reducing inadequate micronutrient intake among women and children in different agricultural and socioeconomic contexts in which HarvestPlus works. The evidence supporting the assumptions and risks for each link in the pathway is summarized and assessed. The results show that for some parts of the impact pathway, outcomes and causal links are well defined and supported by evidence. In other areas, the program logic needs to be better articulated so that hypotheses can be formulated and evidence generated. Addressing these gaps through research, adaptations in delivery activities, and monitoring can increase the likelihood of achieving expected outcomes as well as improve the ability of HarvestPlus and other nutrition-sensitive agricultural programs to learn from current activities to inform a broader scaling up.

Toward an understanding of economic growth in Africa: A re-interpretation of the Lewis Model

Towards understanding economic growth in Africa: A reinterpretation of the Lewis Model

Africa’s recent economic growth is at a historical high, the patterns associated with this growth appear to be quite different from the Asian experiences where rapid growth was fueled by labor intensive, export-oriented manufacturing. Because this pattern differs with our typical view of structural transformation, a heated debate has begun over the sustainability of Africa’s growth. In our view, Africa’s recent growth is still not well understood and thus it is difficult to say much that is meaningful about future prospects for growth on the continent. Against this background, we adapt Lewis’s (1954) dual-economy model to the economies of Africa to better understand the role that the “in-between” sector as defined by Lewis (1979) has played in Africa’s recent growth. Our framework incorporates the coexistence of a closed and an open modern economy and takes into account the diversity and heterogeneity of the activities that characterize modern African economies.

The role of agriculture in the fast-growing Rwandan economy: Assessing growth alternatives

This study assesses the future growth prospects of Rwanda. The report first focuses on broad economic growth using a rather aggregated 18-sector dynamic general equilibrium model to display the trade-off between rapid growth and structural change. The analysis shows that with the current investment pattern, rapid growth is possible but structural transformation is slow. With an overvalued exchange rate, growth in the tradable sector slows down and its share in the economy stays small. The importance of agriculture thus should be considered in the broad development strategy, for its role not only in poverty reduction but also in economic growth.

Aid effectiveness: How is the L’Aquila food security initiative doing?

This paper uses case studies of Bangladesh, Ghana, Rwanda, and Senegal to assess the degree to which the L’Aquila Food Security Initiative (AFSI) has been implemented within the framework of managing for development results (MfDR) and to evaluate progress in various outcomes, including economic governance, agricultural growth, poverty, and food and nutrition security (FNS).

Food as the basis for development and security: A strategy for Yemen

Yemen has been facing severe development challenges in recent years, but rapidly depleting oil and water resources combined with large population increases and a lack of job-creating growth are making a difficult situation even more complicated. In order to provide opportunities for Yemenis to escape the current situation of widespread poverty and food insecurity, the Government of the Republic of Yemen, under the leadership of the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, has developed a strategy to help all Yemeni people gain access to sufficient and nutritious foods in order to live active, productive, and healthy lives. The main objectives of the National Food Security Strategy, developed with the support of the International Food Policy Research Institute, are to (1) cut food insecurity by one-third by 2015, (2) reach moderate food security levels—meaning 90 percent of people have enough to eat year-round—by 2020, and (3) reduce child malnutrition by at least one percentage point per year. As a contribution to this process, the authors of this paper identify seven priority actions to help achieve these goals.

1. Leverage the fuel-subsidy reform process to promote food security.
2. Improve the business climate to foster pro-food-secure private investments in promising sectors.
3. Use qat reduction policies to enhance agricultural development.
4. Strengthen food security risk-management practices.
5. Implement the water-sector strategy decisively.
6. Target public investment to the food insecure more accurately and improve service provision, especially in rural areas.
7. Launch high-level awareness campaigns for family planning, healthy nutrition, and women's empowerment.

The government, civil society groups, and international partners need to quickly, decisively, and jointly implement these seven actions in order to fulfill the strategic goals. The implementation process is likely to be most effective if conducted in a transparent and inclusive manner with effective follow-up and appropriate monitoring and evaluation mechanisms.

Agricultural growth and investment options for poverty reduction in Rwanda

An economywide, multimarket (EMM) model was developed for Rwanda to analyze the linkages and trade-offs between growth and poverty reduction goals at both macro- and micro-economic levels. The model includes 30 agricultural commodities or commodity groups from eight broad agricultural subsectors, along with two aggregated nonagricultural sectors. The analysis compares the economic, income, and poverty effects of a variety of growth scenarios based on existing national subsector growth targets. The analysis shows 6 percent of CAADP’s agricultural GDP growth target is achievable if growth reaches its target at the agricultural subsectoral level. But it is not enough for the country to achieve the MDG One, although the national poverty rate in 2015 will be 17 percent lower than that in 2005. Moreover, the household groups with the smallest landholding size, female-headed, or with few opportunities to participate cash crop production seem to benefit less from such growth. The study also examines the different growth-poverty linkages at agricultural subsector level, and shows that growth driven by productivity increases in staple crops and livestock production can reduce the poverty more than in the case where growth is driven by export crops or by the nonagricultural sector. The analysis also shows that to achieve growth required by CAADP and MDG One, the country needs to substantially beef up its public investment in agriculture. The share of agricultural spending in total government spending is required to increase from the current level of 5 percent to 10-35 percent in 2015.

The role of agriculture in development: implications for Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper provides a nuanced perspective on debates about the potential for Africa’s smallholder agriculture to stimulate growth and alleviate poverty in an increasingly integrated world. In particular, the paper synthesizes both the traditional theoretical literature on agriculture’s role in the development process and discusses more recent literature that remains skeptical about agriculture’s development potential for Africa. In order to examine in greater detail the relevance for Africa of both the “old” and “new” literatures on agriculture, the paper provides a typology of African countries based on their stage of development, agricultural conditions, natural resources, and geographic location... More broadly, the paper demonstrates that conventional theory on the role of agriculture in the early stage of development remains relevant to Africa. While the continent does face new and different challenges than those encountered by Asian and Latin American countries during their successful transformations, most African countries cannot significantly reduce poverty, increase per capita incomes, and transform into modern economies without focusing on agricultural development.

Production risk and commercialization of agriculture in Rwanda : implicatons for household labour supply and food security