Journal Articles

The economywide recovery measures in Rwanda during the COVID-19 pandemic: How useful a lesson?

Understanding differential reductions in undernutrition among districts in Rwanda through the perspectives of mid‐level and community actors on policy commitment and policy coherence

Understanding the drivers of improvements in child undernutrition at only the national level can mask subnational differences. This paper aimed to understand the contributions of factors in the enabling environment to observed differences in stunting reduction between districts in Rwanda. In 2017, we conducted 58 semi-structured interviews with mid-level actors (n = 38) and frontline workers (n = 20) implementing Rwanda's multi-sectoral nutrition policy in five districts in which stunting decreased (reduced districts) and five where it increased or stagnated (non-reduced districts) based on Rwanda's 2010 and 2014/15 Demographic and Health Surveys. Mid-level actors are government officials and service providers at the subnational level who represent the frontline of government policy. Interviews focused on political commitment to and policy coherence in nutrition, and contributors to nutrition changes. Responses were coded to capture themes on the changes and challenges of these topics and compared between reduced and non-reduced districts. Descriptive statistics described district characteristics. Political commitment to nutrition was high in both reduced and non-reduced districts. Respondents from reduced districts were more likely to define commitment to nutrition as an optimal implementation of policy, whereas those from non-reduced districts focused more on financial commitment. Regarding coherence, respondents from reduced compared to non-reduced districts were more likely to report the optimal implementation of multi-sectoral nutrition planning meetings, using data to assess plans and progress in nutrition outcomes and integration of nutrition into the agriculture sector. In contrast, respondents from non-reduced districts more often reported challenges in their relationships with national-level stakeholders and nutrition and/or monitoring and evaluation capacities. Enhancing the integration of nutrition in different sectors and improving mid-level actors' capacity to plan and advocate for nutrition programming may contribute to reductions in stunting.

Strategies for better integrating nutrient supplementation and dietary diversity approaches for stunting reduction and improved nutrition outcomes: A Rwandan case study

Increased attention to the health and nutritional status of people in low‐income countries has led to the development and budgeting for food and nutrition policies. While current policy discussions generally acknowledge the need for better integrating nutrition‐sensitive approaches into current nutrition‐specific health interventions, most do not weigh the costs and merits or potential synergies.The overall objective of this article is to gain insight into the types of interventions that policy‐makers can select and combine to sustainably improve nutrition outcomes in Rwanda.Making use of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) combined with linear programming (LP) techniques applied to food consumption data, this article applies a cost–benefit analysis to Rwanda on two distinct intervention bundles targeted at children and pregnant women. The first entails a set of six nutrient supplementation interventions; the second involves dietary diversification.Whereas both intervention types yield comparable results with respect to short‐term cost effectiveness, the diet diversity approach clearly outperforms nutrient supplementation interventions when aspects of behavioural change, fiscal dependency, and broader economic spillovers are considered in the longer term. Given that undernutrition calls for immediate action while food systems cannot be transformed overnight, abruptly implementing the diet diversity approach is neither effective nor politically feasible.Based on the article's findings, future policies in Rwanda should consider adopting a more comprehensive strategy that integrates a set of near‐term implementable health/nutrition interventions, for immediate impacts on stunting cases, with medium‐term investments to help establish a food system capable of increasing dietary diversity and sustainably improving nutritional outcomes of the population.

Impact of adopting maize hermetic storage technologies on smallholder farmers’ income in Gatsibo District, Rwanda

Rapid population growth has increased the global demand for food. However, some studies have revealed that more than one-third of the global food production is lost during postharvest operations along the food supply chain. Managerial and technical limitations such as a lack of proper storage facilities, poor handling practices and, associated knowledge are among the main causes of food losses particularly in Africa. Maize is among the most important staple food and cash crops across sub-Saharan Africa. In Rwanda, most of the maize produced incurs losses during storage. Hermetic storage technologies (HST) have been proven to be effective in the control of post-harvest storage losses in maize. However, their adoption in maize storage has been low with farmers continuing to use less effective technologies. Therefore, this study assessed the impact of hermetic maize storage technologies adoption, on the income of 301 randomly selected smallholder maize farmers in Gatsibo District of Rwanda, using the endogenous switching regression (ESR). The results revealed that household size, post-harvest training, access to credit, distance to input provider, and the household head's experience in maize production were the major factors influencing farmers' decision to adopt HST. The occupation of the household head, number of plots reserved for other crops, training, household size, age of the household head, and household maize self-sufficiency goal significantly influenced income for both HST adopters and non-adopters. Overall, the adoption of HST had a positive and significant impact on income from stored maize, among those who adopted it. The study recommends that the government of Rwanda and other stakeholders should support the dissemination of HST to facilitate access. Thus, increased access to institutional support services such as post-harvest training, credit access, and agricultural input supply, should be a major part of efforts aimed at promoting the effective use of hermetic maize storage technologies among smallholder maize farmers in Rwanda.

Maternal and paternal employment in agriculture and early childhood development: A cross-sectional analysis of demographic and health survey data

Considerable literature from low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs) links maternal employment to child nutritional status. However, less is known about the role of parental employment and occupation type in shaping child development outcomes. Additionally, little empirical work has examined the mechanisms through which parental occupation influences child outcomes. Our objective was to investigate the associations between maternal and paternal employment (comparing agricultural and non-agricultural employment) and child development and to examine childcare practices and women’s empowerment as potential mechanisms. We pooled nine Demographic and Health Surveys (Benin, Burundi, Cambodia, Congo, Haiti, Rwanda, Senegal, Togo, and Uganda) with data on 8,516 children aged 36–59 months. We used generalised linear models to estimate associations between parental employment and child development, child stimulation (number of activities provided by the mother, father, and other household members), child supervision (not left alone or with older child for >1 hour), early childhood care and education programme (ECCE) attendance, and women’s empowerment. In our sample, all fathers and 85% of mothers were employed. In 40% of families, both parents were employed in agriculture. After adjusting for child, parental and household confounders, we found that parental agricultural employment, relative to non-agricultural employment, was associated with poorer child development (relative risk (RR) 0.86 (95% CI 0.80, 0.92), more child stimulation provided by other household members (mean difference (MD) 0.26 (95% CI 0.09, 0.42)), less adequate child supervision (RR, 0.83 (95% 0.78, 0.80)), less ECCE attendance (RR 0.46 (95% CI 0.39, 0.54)), and lower women’s empowerment (MD -1.01 (95% CI -1.18, -0.84)). Parental agricultural employment may be an important risk factor for early childhood development. More research using more comprehensive exposure and outcome measures is needed to unpack these complex relationships and to inform interventions and policies to support working parents in the agricultural sector with young children.

From food price crisis to an equitable food system

In 2022, the world is experiencing the greatest cost of living crisis in a generation.1 Crises have always highlighted inequities in our societies. With food prices at near record levels globally, rapidly rising inflation, and economic instability, many people living in situations of constraint have no choice but to skip meals, reduce the amount they eat, prepare meals with fewer nutritious foods, and buy cheaper, starchy staples and ultra-processed foods.2, 3 The implications for health inequalities are dire: increased dietary disparities will worsen food insecurity, undernutrition, obesity, and diet-related disease among those who are struggling most.

Translation of policy for reducing undernutrition from national to sub-national levels in Rwanda

Understanding how countries improve children’s nutrition can inform policies and contribute to further improvements. We examined the relationship between improvements in nutrition in Rwanda (1992–2017) and political commitment to- and policy coherence in- nutrition. We reviewed nutrition-relevant Rwandan policies and programs (2000–2018) and conducted 90 semi-structured interviews with national (n = 32), mid-level (n = 38), and community (n = 20) nutrition stakeholders and 40 community-level focus group discussions (FGDs). FGDs and sub-national interviews were conducted in ten purposefully selected districts, five each in which stunting decreased (reduced) and increased or stagnated (non-reduced) between the 2010 and 2014/15 Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys. Analysis consisted of thematic analysis and the assessment of events, policy developments, and strategies that influenced nutrition in Rwanda, including operationalization of political commitment and policy coherence for nutrition. Political and institutional commitment to nutrition increased in Rwanda as evidenced by the adoption of a multisectoral nutrition policy that was reinforced with national and subnational horizontal coordination platforms. These platforms strengthened multisectoral strategies to address nutrition and supported operational and institutional commitment. The role of mid-level actors in nutrition governance increased as responsibilities for planning, implementing, and monitoring nutrition programs were increasingly delegated to sub-national administrative levels. Variations in policy implementation existed between reduced and non-reduced districts. Despite improvements, challenges remained in coordination, financial commitment, and capacity to address, monitor, and evaluate nutrition. Political commitment to- and policy coherence in- nutrition at the national level are important for improving nutrition, and when reinforced institutionally, can be translated to sub-national levels where implementation occurs.

Household livelihood diversification in rural Africa

Diversification is a common livelihood strategy for rural households in developing countries, with diversification being either a choice or necessity depending on individual household contexts. Using two waves of data (from 2009 and 2011) for 1773 households from eight countries in sub-Saharan Africa, we examined livelihood diversification and its drivers. We examined livelihood diversification by considering household involvement in three livelihood activities: crop, livestock, and non-farm. Results indicated that 40% of households conducted all three livelihood activities, but there was heterogeneity in diversity levels. We used a correlated random effects model to identify the factors that pushed or pulled households to diversify their activities. Access to non-agricultural credit was positively associated with livelihood diversity as it can catalyze involvement in non-farm activities. Drought had a negative effect on livelihood diversity. Area of crop land had a positive effect on the number of livelihood activities conducted. We found that 53% of households added or removed at least one livelihood activity between 2009 and 2011, and the addition of non-farm activities was the most common change. Our results demonstrated the dynamic nature of livelihoods and importance of shocks (such as drought) and resource endowments (land) in understanding household livelihood diversification.

Sustainable aquaculture development in sub-Saharan Africa

Aquaculture must grow above the current rate of 11% per year to meet projected demand and reduce dependence on seafood imports. Government support and private investment are urgently needed for sustainable growth.

Mitigating aflatoxin in Rwanda

On August 18th, 2021, the International Growth Centre and the Rwandan Ministry of Agriculture organised a webinar under the theme Market Driven Strategies for Mitigating Aflatoxin in Rwanda. The webinar highlighted Rwanda's progress towards mitigating aflatoxin and showcased innovative approaches used by neighbouring countries. The event was an opportunity for stakeholders to discuss Rwanda’s key challenges in post-harvest management and assess the evidence on approaches that have (not) worked in similar contexts.

Assessment of factors affecting the decision of smallholder farmers to use alternative maize storage technologies in Gatsibo District-Rwanda

Storage is an important aspect of food security in developing countries. Therefore, it is crucial for farmers to have access to sustainable storage technologies to cope with storage losses. Maize is an important staple and commercial food in Rwanda, but maize farmers are still being challenged by storage losses because of the lack of proper storage facilities. It is in that regard that advanced maize storage technology, notably hermetic maize storage technology, has been introduced in Rwanda in 2012. However, since its introduction, the adoption rate is low among smallholder maize farmers. Understanding the factors influencing farmers’ choice of alternative maize storage technology could provide Rwandan policymakers with important information for designing policies and programs aimed at reducing maize post-harvest losses to enhance household food security. This study used a multivariate probit model on a randomly selected cross-sectional sample of 301 smallholder maize farmers from the Gatsibo District of Rwanda to take part. The results revealed that the common maize storage technologies used among smallholder farmers were polypropylene sacks with and without chemicals, hermetic bags, and silos. Only 41% of respondents used hermetic maize storage technology. The model results showed that membership in a farmer group, access to credit, the quantity of maize produced, access to training, and selling maize soon after it dries, were the major factors influencing the decision of smallholder farmers to use alternative maize storage technologies. The study recommends that the policymakers and other stakeholders in post-harvest loss reduction should support the dissemination of advanced storage technologies to facilitate access. The government should support farmer acquisition of post-harvest maize loss reduction technologies either through subsidization of hermetic bags or provision of cheap credit.

Stories of change in nutrition from Africa and Asia: An introduction to a special series in food security

Malnutrition in all its forms continues to be a massive global challenge, and the past decade has seen a growing political attention to addressing malnutrition in different contexts. What has been largely missing so far, and is in growing demand from countries, is tangible, practical and rigorous insights and lessons (from other countries or contexts) on how to translate this burgeoning political momentum into effective policies and programme implementation strategies – and ultimately impact on the ground. This new climate of learning from experience and evidence led to the launch in 2015 of the Stories of Change initiative. This series presents a second wave of studies from six countries (Tanzania, Rwanda, Vietnam, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Nigeria,) and three Indian states (Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu). These provide clear evidence combined with compelling narratives on what drives success in addressing all forms of malnutrition – evidence that is necessary for turning global momentum into actual results on the ground. This introductory Opinion is published with the first set of papers. It will be followed by a thorough synthesis of papers as a conclusion of the Series. We hope that the lessons embedded in these Stories of Change will inform and inspire the deliberations and outcomes of the UN Food Systems Summit and the second Nutrition for Growth Summit to be held this year, and the actions of those in the global food and nutrition system working for positive change.

Review of the micronutrient situation in Rwanda

Rwanda’s commitment to reducing malnutrition is evident in their multisectoral nutrition policy and wide array of nutrition partners. However, the prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies and the suitability of current strategies to address existing deficiencies is unclear.To review the available evidence related to the prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies across the life cycle and strategies in place to address them.We reviewed scientific and grey literature on nutritional problems in Rwanda, emphasizing micronutrient deficiencies and anemia, and current strategies to address micronutrient malnutrition.Overall, there is scant evidence related to the types and prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies among populations across the life cycle in Rwanda. Existing evidence is primarily limited to outdated or small regional surveys focusing on iron or vitamin A among women and young children. Surveys have assessed the prevalence of anemia and indicate that anemia is very high among young children and moderately high among other age-groups. However, there are limited data on the context-specific causes of anemia in Rwanda across population groups. Current nutrition strategies mainly target women and young children and are primarily designed to reduce vitamin A deficiency and/or anemia caused by micronutrient deficiencies.Rwanda has many nutrition programs in place that address micronutrient deficiencies in young children and a few for women of reproductive age. However, gaps exist in knowledge of the extent of different types of micronutrient deficiencies among all populations across the life cycle and whether the delivery of nutrients through current programs is meeting actual needs.

Demand-driven extension and advisory services: Catalysing opportunities for youth in agriculture

While education access has improved globally, gains are uneven, and development impacts driven by increases in education continue to be left on the table, especially in rural areas. Demand-driven extension and advisory services (EAS) – as a key institution educating rural people while providing agricultural advice and supplying inputs – have a critical role to play in bridging the education gap. This can help ensure that millions of young people successfully capitalise on opportunities in agriculture markets, as surveys in Rwanda and Uganda demonstrate.

Increased iron status during a feeding trial of iron-biofortified beans increases physical work efficiency in Rwandan women

Background Iron-biofortified staple foods can improve iron status and resolve iron deficiency. However, whether improved iron status from iron biofortification can improve physical performance remains unclear. Objective This study aimed to examine whether changes in iron status from an iron-biofortified bean intervention affect work efficiency. Methods A total of 125 iron-depleted (ferritin <20 μg/L) female Rwandan university students (18–26 y) were selected from a larger sample randomly assigned to consume iron-biofortified beans (Fe-Bean; 86.1 mg Fe/kg) or conventional beans (control: 50.6 mg Fe/kg) twice daily for 18 wk (average of 314 g beans consumed/d). Blood biomarkers of iron status (primary outcome) and physical work efficiency (secondary outcome) were measured before and after the intervention. Work performed was assessed during 5-min steady-state periods at 0-, 25-, and 40-W workloads using a mechanically braked cycle ergometer. Work efficiency was calculated at 25 W and 40 W as the work accomplished divided by the energy expended at that workload above that expended at 0 W. General linear models were used to evaluate the relation between changes in iron status biomarkers and work efficiency. Results The Fe-Bean intervention had significant positive effects on hemoglobin, serum ferritin, and body iron stores but did not affect work efficiency. However, 18-wk change in hemoglobin was positively related to work efficiency at 40 W in the full sample (n = 119; estimate: 0.24 g/L; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.48 g/L; P = 0.044) and among women who were anemic (hemoglobin <120 g/L) at baseline (n = 43; estimate: 0.64 g/L; 95% CI: 0.05, 1.23 g/L; P = 0.036). Among women who were nonanemic at baseline, change in serum ferritin was positively related to change in work efficiency at 40 W (n = 60; estimate: 0.50 μg/L; 95% CI: 0.06, 0.95 μg/L; P = 0.027). Conclusions Increasing iron status during an iron-biofortified bean feeding trial improves work efficiency in iron-depleted, sedentary women. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01594359.

Climate and poverty in Africa South of the Sahara

To estimate the effects of weather conditions on welfare globally, cross-country comparisons need to rely on international poverty lines and comparable data sources at the micro-level. To this end, nationally representative household surveys can offer a useful instrument, also at the sub-national level. This study seeks to expand the existing knowledge on the determinants of poverty in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA), examining how long-term climatic conditions and year-specific weather shocks affect expenditure per capita. We take advantage of a novel and unique dataset combining consumption-based household surveys for 24 SSA countries -representative of more than half of the African population and two thirds of SSA- and geospatial information on agro-climatic conditions, market access and other spatial covariates of poverty. To our knowledge, it is the first time that a welfare-based, multidisciplinary, micro-level dataset with such wide spatial coverage has been assembled and examined. Our analysis relies on a linear and spatial model at the household- and district-level, respectively, both controlling for socio-economic, demographic, and geographic confounding factors. Results are consistent across econometric approaches, showing that living in more humid areas is positively associated with welfare, while the opposite occurs living in hotter areas, as existing literature shows. Flood shocks -defined as annual rainfall higher than one standard deviation from the 50-year average- are associated to a 35% decrease in total and food per-capita consumption and 17 percentage point increase in extreme poverty. On the other hand, extreme shortages of rain and heat shocks show an uncertain effect, even when estimates control for spatial correlation between welfare and weather conditions using the spatial error correction model. Given the heterogeneous effects of climatic events across SSA macro-regions, local-specific adaptation and mitigation strategies are suggested to help bringing households on a sustainable path.

Changes in iron status are related to changes in brain activity and behavior in Rwandan female university students: Results from a randomized controlled efficacy trial involving iron-biofortified beans

Background: Evidence suggests that iron deficiency (ID) affects cognitive performance, as measured in behavior. Although such effects must be mediated by changes in the brain, very few studies have included measures of brain activity to assess this relation. Objective: We tested the hypothesis that provision of iron-biofortified beans would result in improvements in measures of iron status, brain dynamics, and behavior.

Ex‐ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub‐Saharan Africa

This study undertakes an ex‐ante evaluation of the effects of alternative technology and policy options on soybean supply and demand in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) to 2050. Current soybean consumption in SSA is dominated by cooking oil followed by soybean cake used as animal feed. Due to weak processing sectors and low soybean yields, the region is currently importing about 70% of its consumption requirements. Based on the results from a geospatial bio‐economic modeling framework, soybean consumption in SSA is projected to more than double by 2050 compared to 2010 due in part to a rising population and rising incomes. On the other hand, supply from domestic production is projected to increase by 80% over the same period. Hence, by 2050, net imports into SSA would be nearly 4 times higher than supply from domestic production. Under a future drier climate, some of the production gains achieved through soybean research and extension would be lost and this would further worsen the soybean demand gap in SSA relative to the baseline. This study shows that relying on conventional breeding alone to increase soybean yields in SSA would not be enough to substantially reduce the future demand gap. A combination of promising innovations affecting the soybean value chain across SSA would be needed to close the soybean demand gap in SSA by 2050 under a drier future climate.

Promoting rapid and sustained adoption of biofortified crops: What we learned from iron-biofortified bean delivery approaches in Rwanda

Micronutrient deficiencies, also known as hidden hunger, affect two billion people worldwide, curtailing their ability to lead healthy, productive lives. Biofortified staple crops, bred to be rich in micronutrient content, are a cost-effective and scalable solution to alleviating micronutrient deficiency, particularly among rural households who consume what they produce. Delivery of biofortified planting material in Rwanda began in 2012, and it is important to learn from the efforts undertaken to date to inform the design of higher impact – lower cost delivery strategies for scaling up these crops. In this paper, we use a nationally representative household survey of bean producers and delivery data from seven consecutive seasons and apply duration analysis to estimate the impact of different delivery approaches on household time to adoption, disadoption and readoption of iron-biofortified beans in Rwanda. Proximity to formal delivery via sales of small packets of planting material quickens adoption and readoption, while delivery of larger quantities of planting material to small-scale producers within a village slows disadoption of iron-biofortified beans. Informal dissemination within social networks and access to extension are also major drivers of rapid adoption. In addition, households whose main decision maker for bean production is a woman, has some formal education, and more years of experience growing beans disadopt iron-biofortified beans more slowly than other households. These findings provide evidence that current efforts to promote iron-biofortified crops have been successful and are expected to inform future development of sustainable and cost-effective delivery models for biofortified crops in Rwanda and elsewhere.

Land consolidation, specialization and household diets: Evidence from Rwanda

Toward an understanding of economic growth in Africa: A reinterpretation of the Lewis model

We develop a model economy that has many of the features of Lewis (1954) but that also includes an in-between sector as described by Lewis (1979). Our model underscores the importance of the following determinants of structural change: (i) productivity growth in the agricultural sector; (ii) productivity growth in the nonagricultural sector and; (iii) the terms of trade. Public investment enhances productivity growth in all sectors but when it is financed by foreign inflows, it also causes a real exchange rate appreciation leading to a contraction in the open modern sector. These results provide a partial explanation for recent patterns of growth in Rwanda and elsewhere in Africa where the nontradables or what we call the in-between sector has expanded more rapidly than the tradable sector. Our results also highlight the dilemma faced by poor countries in dire need of public investment with a very limited tax base.

Distributional effects of growth and public expenditures in Africa: Estimates for Tanzania and Rwanda

Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment

Iron beans in Rwanda: crop development and delivery experience

HarvestPlus and its partners have successfully developed and delivered iron bean varieties to more than one million farming households in Rwanda, DRC, and Uganda to help combat the adverse health effects of iron deficiency widespread in these countries. Focusing primarily on Rwanda, this chapter summarizes the country, nutritional and consumer background, crop development, release, and delivery of iron bean varieties and synthesizes lessons learned and future challenges.

Sweet potato development and delivery in sub-saharan Africa

In sub-Saharan Africa, more than 40% of children under five years of age suffer from vitamin A deficiency. Among several interventions in place to address vitamin A deficiency is biofortification, breeding vitamin A into key staple crops. Staple crops biofortified with beta-carotene, the precursor to vitamin A, are orange in color. Given the natural occurrence of high levels of beta-carotene in many sweet potato varieties, breeding progress for biofortified orange sweet potato (OSP) has been much faster than for the other vitamin A enhanced staples. Nearly 3 million households have been reached with OSP. This paper reviews key factors influencing the uptake of OSP, the breeding investment, five key delivery approaches that have been tested in the region and efforts to broaden government and other stakeholder engagement.

Advocacy for biofortification: Building stakeholder support, integration into regional and national policies, and sustaining momentum

Africa as a continent faces high prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies such as vitamin A, iron, and zinc. Biofortification offers a dietary agriculture-based strategy that has shown potential to address selected micronutrient deficiencies. This chapter describes how advocacy for biofortification by HarvestPlus and its partners has been structured, including a mix of evidence generation and sharing, stakeholder mapping, promotion to change attitudes, and efforts towards establishing Codex Alimentarius standards for biofortification. In addition, a review of African Union, Southern African Development Community, and country-level strategic policy documents on how biofortification is reflected in such documents for four country case studies, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Zambia was conducted. The momentum that has been built for biofortification on the continent is in part attributed to salient advocacy that HarvestPlus and its partners have used to promote investment in biofortification and adoption by countries, to the extent that the original skepticism has dissipated and biofortified crops have been released in at least 22 African countries with plans for release in additional countries. Considerations and recommendations are suggested to inform the development of advocacy strategies at country, regional, and Africa continent levels, aimed at sustaining and accelerating the momentum for biofortification.

Consumer market segments for biofortified iron beans in Rwanda: Evidence from a hedonic testing study

Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?

Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.

Radio messaging frequency, information framing, and consumer willingness to pay for biofortified iron beans: Evidence from revealed preference elicitation in rural Rwanda

Iron deficiency is a public health problem in many developing countries. Iron‐biofortified varieties of commonly consumed staple crops have the potential to contribute to the daily iron requirements in diets. This paper examines consumer acceptance and willingness to pay (WTP) for two iron bean varieties in Rwanda: red iron bean (RIB) and white iron bean (WIB). Using the Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschak mechanism, the paper investigates the effect of (1) nutrition information; (2) information frame; and (3) the frequency of providing the information on consumer WTP. WTP estimations take into account social interaction and nonpayment effects. Results indicate that without information about the nutritional benefits of the two iron bean varieties, consumers are willing to pay a large premium for the RIB variety, but not for the WIB variety. The nutrition information provided has a significantly positive effect on the premium for each of the iron bean varieties. Results also indicate that the effects of how the information is framed on this premium are not statistically significant. However, providing the nutrition information three times versus once significantly increases consumer demand for the WIB variety. These findings could inform the design of efficient delivery and marketing strategies for iron bean varieties in Rwanda.

Economic impact of refugees

The number of refugees displaced by civil conflict or natural disasters is on the rise. Economic impacts of refugees on host countries are controversial and little understood, because data have not been available and the question of refugee impacts does not lend itself to conventional impact evaluation methods. We use a unique Monte Carlo simulation approach with microdata from refugee and host-country surveys to obtain the first estimates of refugee camps’ impacts on surrounding host-country economies and to compare impacts of cash versus in-kind refugee aid. An additional refugee increases total real income within a 10-km radius around two cash camps by significantly more than the aid the refugee receives. Impacts around a camp receiving in-kind (food) aid are smaller.

In Rwandese women with low iron status, iron absorption from low-phytic acid beans and biofortified beans is comparable, but low-phytic acid beans cause adverse gastrointestinal symptoms

Maize systems under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Potential impacts on production and food security

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the biophysical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change on maize production and food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using adapted improved maize varieties and well-calibrated and validated bioeconomic models. Design/methodology/approach: Using the past climate (1950-2000) as a baseline, the study estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change in 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099) under the A1B emission scenario and three nitrogen levels, and the socioeconomic impacts in 2050. Findings: Climate change will affect maize yields across SSA in 2050 and 2080, and the extent of the impact at a given period will vary considerably between input levels, regions and maize mega environments (MMEs). Greater relative yield reductions may occur under medium and high-input intensification than under low intensification, in Western and Southern Africa than in Eastern and Central Africa and in lowland and dry mid-altitude than in highland and wet mid-altitude MMEs. Climate change may worsen food insecurity in SSA in 2050 through its negative impact on maize consumption and reduction in daily calorie intake. However, international trade has the potential to offset some of the negative impacts. Originality/value: The study calibrated and applied bioeconomic models to estimate the biophysical and socioeconomic impact of climate change on maize production at fine resolution. The results could be used as a baseline to evaluate measures that will be applied to adapt maize to the future climate in SSA.

The impact of agricultural extension services on social capital: An application to the Sub-Saharan African challenge program in Lake Kivu region

Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change

This paper examines the development and use of scenarios as an approach to guide action in multi-level, multi-actor adaptation contexts such as food security under climate change. Three challenges are highlighted: (1) ensuring the appropriate scope for action; (2) moving beyond intervention-based decision guidance; and (3) developing long-term shared capacity for strategic planning. To overcome these challenges we have applied explorative scenarios and normative back-casting with stakeholders from different sectors at the regional level in East Africa. We then applied lessons about appropriate scope, enabling adaptation pathways, and developing strategic planning capacity to scenarios processes in multiple global regions. Scenarios were created to have a broad enough scope to be relevant to diverse actors, and then adapted by different actor groups to ensure their salience in specific decision contexts. The initial strategy for using the scenarios by bringing a range of actors together to explore new collaborative proposals had limitations as well as strengths versus the application of scenarios for specific actor groups and existing decision pathways. Scenarios development and use transitioned from an intervention-based process to an embedded process characterized by continuous engagement. Feasibility and long-term sustainability could be ensured by having decision makers own the process and focusing on developing strategic planning capacity within their home organizations.

Phytic acid concentration influences iron bioavailability from biofortified beans in Rwandese women with low iron status

Have coffee producers benefited from the new domestic cherry market?: Evidence using panel data from Rwanda

The article assesses the effects of the new domestic cherry market on coffee‐growing households in Rwanda using panel data. Findings from combined first differenced with instrumental variable specification and other estimation methods provide evidence that farmers who sell to the cherry market do not increase their expenditures compared to farmers selling to the traditional parchment market. The different time lags in terms of when farmers started selling to the new cherry market may explain the lack of statistically significant differences across the two groups. It is possible that farmers will adjust their expenditure patterns in subsequent periods after year‐over‐year market trends become more apparent to them.

Selecting sites to prove the concept of IAR4D in the Lake Kivu Pilot Learning Site

Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

Two possible adaptation scenarios to climate change for Sub-Saharan Africa are analyzed under the SRES B2 scenario. The first scenario doubles the irrigated area in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, compared to the baseline, but keeps total crop area constant. The second scenario increases both rainfed and irrigated crop yields by 25% for all Sub-Saharan African countries. The two adaptation scenarios are analyzed with IMPACT, a partial equilibrium agricultural sector model combined with a water simulation module, and with GTAP-W, a general equilibrium model including water resources. The methodology combines the advantages of a partial equilibrium approach, which considers detailed water-agriculture linkages, with a general equilibrium approach, which takes into account linkages between agriculture and nonagricultural sectors and includes a full treatment of factor markets. The efficacy of the two scenarios as adaptation measures to cope with climate change is discussed. Due to the limited initial irrigated area in the region, an increase in agricultural productivity achieves better outcomes than an expansion of irrigated area. Even though Sub-Saharan Africa is not a key contributor to global food production (rainfed, irrigated or total), both scenarios help lower world food prices, stimulating national and international food markets.

Incontinence and trauma: Sexual violence, female genital cutting and proxy measures of gynecological fistula

Distributional and nutritional impact of devaluation in Rwanda

Productivity effects of land tenure systems in Sub-Saharan Africa

This article uses household survey data from Ghana, Kenya, and Rwanda to test if the indigenous land rights systems in sub‐Saharan Africa are a constraint on agricultural productivity. Rights which farmers hold over individual parcels of land vary widely, and are in many cases surprisingly privatized. Yet with few exceptions, land rights are not found to be a significant factor in determining investments in land improvements, use of inputs, access to credit, or the productivity of land. These results cast doubt on the need for ambitious land registration and titling programs at this time.