Publications

Introduction [in Advancing the climate and bioeconomy agenda in Africa for resilient and sustainable agrifood systems]

Taken together, long-term dynamics such as demographic changes, urbanization, and a continent-wide nutrition transition pose a complex set of challenges to African agrifood systems. These challenges are further compounded by the frequent and extreme weather events linked to the deepening climate crisis, whose effects range from prolonged droughts, floods, and disease outbreaks, to rising sea levels, increasing heatwaves, and changing rainfall patterns. Left unmitigated, the likely effects on agricultural yields and productivity, infrastructure, broader economic growth, and community livelihoods risk unraveling the progress made in improving food security and nutrition, as well as alleviating poverty. In one of the latest illustrations of climate change impacts across Africa, several thousand people lost their lives in Libya after torrential rain caused two dams to collapse in September 2023. The recent El Niño–induced droughts and floods across Southern Africa have led the United Nations and its partners to call for urgent action, as more than 30 million people across the region face the effects of severe drought. The consortium has warned that millions could be pushed into acute hunger unless support is urgently mobilized before the next lean season (WFP 2024). These shocks are seriously disrupting production cycles and hampering the ability of countries to guarantee food security for their populations.

Climate action and bioeconomy transition: Mainstreaming environmental sustainability in the Post-Malabo Agenda of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme

The concepts of the green economy, circular economy, blue economy, and bioeconomy started emerging in response to the multidimensional economic, socioecological, and climate change crises. These concepts are becoming popular in sustainability discussions in policy, scientific research, and business and are expected to promote sustainability through different pathways of transformation. Each of these frameworks offers a comprehensive package of solutions, yet all point toward renewable, bio-based processes and nature-based or nature-friendly solutions (Kirchherr, Reike, and Hekkert 2017; Geissdoerfer et al. 2017; D’Amato and Korhonen 2021). The bioeconomy, which is more focused on biological and nature-based/positive processes, is usually viewed as a more holistic concept that encompasses principles of the green economy, circular economy, and blue economy (Figure 12.1).

Adaptation actions to climate change in African agriculture: Effectiveness and challenges

Climate change poses a significant burden to African development and economic growth, impacting households at both national and regional levels. While accounting for only 3–4 percent of global emissions, Africa is most vulnerable to climate change due to low levels of socioeconomic growth (Kikstra et al. 2022). Africa’s vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by its reliance on rain-fed agriculture, environmental degradation, inadequate infrastructure, widespread poverty, and increased frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters. These factors make Africa highly susceptible to climate-related disruptions such as droughts and floods and can amplify the impact of climate-related disasters on communities, economies, and ecosystems (UNECA 2013; WMO 2020). Effective adaptation strategies and risk financing mechanisms are crucial for building regional adaptive capacity and resilience.

The impact of climate change on African economies and opportunities for agrifood system transformation

As in the rest of the world, the climate is changing in Africa, with data showing a slightly faster warming trend than the global average of around +0.2°C per decade for the 1991–2022 period. In Africa, the average rate of change of temperature was around +0.3°C per decade between 1991 and 2022, while it was estimated at +0.2°C per decade between 1961 and 1990. In addition, all six African subregions have experienced an increase in warming over the past 60 years compared with the period before 1960. Due to global warming, Africa is observing a change in precipitation patterns, a rise in sea level, and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, extreme heat, and cyclones (WMO 2023). For instance, the report on the State of the Climate in Africa in 2022 (WMO 2023) showed that precipitation anomalies were above the 1991–2020 average in northeastern Africa, large parts of West Africa, the eastern Sahel region, Sudan, and parts of South Africa. In addition, several regions experienced rainfall deficits including the western part of North Africa, the Horn of Africa, portions of southern Africa, and Madagascar. Sea level rise in Africa’s seven coastal regions has been similar to the global sea level average rate of increase of 3.4 millimeters (plus or minus 0.3 millimeters) per year between 1990 and 2020. In addition, extreme weather events are growing in frequency and intensity. With respect to extreme weather events including droughts, floods, extreme heat, and cyclones, data from the Emergency Event Database in Africa showed that 80 meteorological, hydrological, and climate-related hazards were reported in 2022 (WMO 2023).

The converging climate change and bioeconomy agendas as a pathway toward implementing the post-Malabo CAADP agenda

In June 2014, the African heads of state and government adopted the Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods. The declaration contains a set of concrete goals to be attained by 2025, known as the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which in turn functions as the main policy framework for the African Union (AU) in the agricultural sector. The declaration thus provided a new direction for a more focused approach to achieving the continent’s vision for agricultural growth and transformation (AUC 2014). According to the African Union Commission (AUC) and the African Union Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD), the CAADP was designed as a practical instrument and framework through which Africa was going to drive efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. The importance of evidence to inform policy design and implementation, inclusive participation of multiple stakeholder groups at all stages of the policy process, and mutual accountability for actions and results are at the heart of the CAADP. These principles help formulate high-quality policies and ensure that successful policies are scaled up while unsuccessful ones are adjusted. Since the adoption of the Malabo Declaration, 10 years have elapsed, and considerable progress toward achieving some of its targets is visible across the continent. With the lifespan of the Malabo Declaration coming to an end, the AU proactively initiated the design of a new 10-year strategy, covering the period from 2026 to 2035. As Africa has embarked on designing this successor strategy, it faces multiple complex challenges compounded by the climate crisis. With the opportune timing of this Annual Trends and Outlook Report, this chapter explores how the convergence of the climate change agenda and the transition to a bioeconomy will shape future strategic political decisions across the continent, effecting an equitable and sustainable transformation of agrifood systems. Thus, the bioeconomy can be a solution to future challenges resulting from climate change (for example, climate adaption) vis-à-vis the challenges of avoiding the unsustainable use of natural resources (through climate mitigation, land use change, and the sustainable use of inputs). Simultaneously, the bioeconomy will generate opportunities for new markets—including markets for bioproducts, bioenergy or food based on insects or waste, and carbon engineering (markets that are discussed in Featured Issue 1).

Bioeconomy pathways: Experience from Africa, Asia, and Latin America

In 2022, the Malabo Montpellier Panel published a report that made the case for African countries to embrace a bioeconomy approach to meet their agrifood systems transformation and economic growth ambitions. The Panel systematically identified four African countries at the forefront of transitioning to a bioeconomy to better understand how different governments choose their own context-specific bioeconomy development pathways (Malabo Montpellier Panel 2022). Building on this analysis, this chapter provides a snapshot of how different countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America are choosing their own context-specific bioeconomy entry points and pathways. It provides an update of the analyses by the Panel on the cases of Ghana, Namibia, and Uganda. In addition, this chapter shows how Brazil and Thailand have embraced a bioeconomy transition to support learning not just across borders, but across regions.

Climate risks and vulnerabilities in African agrifood systems

In an era when the impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly pronounced, understanding and mitigating climate risk is paramount, especially for regions highly vulnerable to environmental change. Africa, with its rich biodiversity and varied climates, stands on the front line, facing unique challenges posed by climate change and climate variability. The continent’s susceptibility around climate change is not just a matter of environmental concern but a multifaceted issue affecting socioeconomic development, agricultural sustainability, and the overall well-being of its inhabitants. The imperative to assess, comprehend, and adapt to these risks is more critical now than ever, necessitating a detailed analysis of various climate-related parameters and their long-term implications.

Tracking key CAADP indicators and implementation processes

In this chapter we review Africa’s progress in CAADP process implementation and on the CAADP RF indicators to highlight areas of strong performance that need to be sustained or accelerated as well as areas of weak performance that require urgent attention to enable the continent to meet its Malabo Declaration agricultural transformation goals. The chapter examines progress on 27 of the 38 CAADP RF indicators for which cross-country data are available (Table 13.2). Details of the indicators and aggregate statistics are available in the data tables in Annexes 1–3 of this report. Progress on the RF indicators is discussed across different aggregated geographic and economic groupings of African countries by comparing trends in the RF indicators during the first five years after the adoption of CAADP (2003–2008) with later subperiods (2008–2014 and 2014–2023), with a particular focus on the Malabo Declaration period of 2014–2023.

A nutrition-sensitive circular bioeconomy for food systems transformation in Africa

Africa’s commitment to creating a sustainable and self-sufficient economy for its rapidly growing population has led to programmatic actions aimed at meeting local food, energy, and material demands sustainably and without compromising planetary boundaries (Africa Business Page 2022; Agri SA 2023). The bioeconomy has become a primary focus of this transformative blueprint, generally positioned as a vehicle for generating and using bioresources in meeting local demands for abundance, sustainable goods, and services (Gatune, Ozor, and Oriama 2021; Malabo Montpellier Panel 2022). However, the implementation momentum of the bioeconomy is incumbent on a well-planned and objective-oriented policy framework that supports generation of scientific evidence and reasonable investment structures, among other requirements for implementation (East African Community 2022; Pachón et al. 2018).

Just energy transition: Challenges and low carbon pathways for Africa

Transitioning to renewable energy is a critical part of addressing climate change and ensuring sustainable development. However, if this transition does not consider the social, economic, and financial implications for African countries, it cannot be considered a “just” transition for Africa. At the social level, the transition to low-carbon pathways, such as renewable energy sources, will create new employment opportunities. However, poor countries and marginalized populations may face disproportionate challenges during this transition if they are excluded from decision-making processes or do not benefit from these new job prospects. It is therefore essential to ensure that low-carbon pathways help reduce social inequalities and improve livelihoods for people in these countries and communities. At the economic and financial levels, transitioning to low-carbon pathways will require significant funding to develop national or regional value chains, invest in research and development, and build capacity. International financial support will be crucial for developing countries, especially in Africa, to ensure a just transition.

2022 Social Accounting Matrix for Rwanda: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2022 Rwanda Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

A guide to developing quantitative tools for measuring gender norms in agrifood systems

Increasingly, gender transformative approaches (GTAs), which seek to transform the underlying causes of gender inequalities, including discriminatory gender norms, are being used in agrifood systems (AFS) interventions. A growing body of evidence finds that GTAs contribute to positive impacts on a wide range of important development outcomes and have potential for improving gender equality. One limitation to better understanding changes in AFS-based gender norms as a result of GTAs is a lack of appropriate quantitative tools for measuring these norms. This work is an important step in filling that gap. Herein we detail the collaborative process that we undertook in Nigeria and Tanzania to develop a quantitative approach to measuring gender norms in the cassava, poultry, and fisheries value chains in each country. We then provide guidance for how implementing and research partners using GTAs in AFS can apply our learnings to their own work.

Rwandan maize market price dynamics: Structure, trends and policy implications

The importance of maize for Rwanda cannot be overstated. Most smallholder farmers, along the spectrum of both land size and level of commercialization, engage in both production, own consumption, and sale of maize. Unlike most other crops, maize is commonly produced by all levels of commercialized and subsistence smallholder farmers. For example, recent research revealed that even though almost half of all maize produced is sold (44%), only an average of 23 percent is marketed at the household level (Warner et al. 2024). This indicates that while maize is widely sold by most smallholders, it is disproportionally sold by those with relatively larger farms. Therefore, maize is important for both own consumption as well as commercial sales and price movements are critical for understanding potential welfare impacts on both buyers and sellers. Research presented here outlines some important maize price relationships, including multi-year trends, interrelationships between Rwandan markets and seasonality. Overall, we find strong correlation between all markets suggesting a good degree of integration but persistent individual market prices above and below national averages as well as seasonality that generally conforms to maize’s main harvest period (Season A). This policy brief provides an overview of maize prices in Rwanda in order to enhance evidence-based policymaking for targeting recommendations aimed at more integrated and stable maize market prices throughout the country. For example, seasonal price changes suggest an annual average price fluctuation of approximately 30 percent and if targeted policies could reduce this seasonal price variation, smallholder welfare would likely be improved.

Task or time? Comparing methods for measuring the gender distribution of work

There is growing evidence that gender disparities in the distribution of paid and unpaid work impose constraints on women’s well-being and livelihoods, reducing access to paid employment, and time for education, leisure, and social activities. Yet, gender disparities in unpaid work often go undiagnosed by traditional household surveys. While time-use surveys are well-suited for measuring unpaid work, they are often expensive to administer and take substantial amounts of survey time, leading to respondent fatigue, particularly in multi-topic surveys where other outcomes are also being collected.

In this paper, we compare data collected using the task allocation module in the Transforming Agrifood Systems in South Asia (TAFSSA) integrated household survey and the time-use module in the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) survey. We begin by describing the methods used to collect the data in each of the surveys. We present an overview of the characteristics of the study sites in the TAFSSA integrated survey and sites in the same countries where the WEAI data were collected. We then present comparable data from each of the two methods. The findings confirm the gendered patterns in involvement in different activities as measured by both survey modules. While women’s participation in agricultural activities is high across Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, the amount of time they spend on agricultural activities is less than that spent by men. Both survey tools confirm that women undertake most of the food preparation-related activities, and men contribute through shopping/purchasing food.

The agricultural transformation index

Agricultural transformation, in broad terms, is the process during which the agricultural sector develops from a low-productivity, subsistence-oriented sector to a modern, commercially oriented one. It typically involves adopting advanced technologies and more sustainable and efficient production practices, and results in higher agricultural productivity per worker, agricultural diversification into high-value crops, and rising rural incomes. Importantly, agricultural transformation is also seen as a catalyst for broader economic development and a structural shift towards industrialization in developing economies. Given the central role of agricultural transformation in driving such change, as well as its contribution to development objectives such as poverty reduction, improvements in diet quality, and environmental sustainability, it is useful to measure and monitor progress on agricultural transformation. This is the purpose of the Agricultural Transformation Index (ATI), a newly developed composite index constructed from four indicators of progress on agricultural transformation: staple crop productivity, crop diversification, agricultural labor productivity, and food system expansion. Together, these indicators, which are calculated from publicly available, global datasets, can be used to examine progress over time on global, regional, and national scales. In addition to being transparent and easy to interpret, the index can be updated annually as new data is released. As demonstrated in this study, the ATI produces a plausible ranking of countries and is highly correlated with indicators of overall economic wellbeing such as GDP per capita or household-specific welfare measures such as poverty or the prevalence of undernourishment. The ATI is not only useful for identifying countries in need of support from international development partners or tracking their progress on agricultural transformation but can also highlight specific areas of agricultural transformation where technical or investment support might be directed by governments or their partners.

Impact of climate change on trade in Africa

The literature on the complex relationship between trade and climate change is rich. While trade can affect climate change through dirty production techniques or carbon emissions due to transport (Brenton and Chemutai 2021), climate change can affect trade through its effect on agricultural productivity (Ben Zaied and Cheikh 2015; Chandio et al. 2020), production, and thus countries’ specialization (Gouel and Laborde 2021), primarily due to high temperatures and water stress (Hamududu and Ngoma 2020). As Africa is a net importer of agricultural products, the consequence is that climate change will likely affect food security in the medium and long term. Against this background, the objective of this chapter is twofold. First, we examine the extent to which African countries are exposed to climate change relative to other regions of the world. Second, we show how Africa’s comparative advantages can be altered with rising temperatures and water stress. Our main findings show that climate change effects in Africa are more pronounced than in other regions, reflected in the increase in extreme weather events associated with rising temperatures and greater variability in precipitation. These developments are likely to increase the number of food insecure people. Furthermore, we identify how climate change can affect African countries’ specialization based on products’ sensitivity to changes in temperature and their dependence on water. We show that several crops (such as leguminous vegetables, edible nuts and coconuts, groundnuts, oilseeds, and oleaginous fruits) will be affected by climate change. Other crops’ production may be less affected, but their future expansion may be limited by climate change–related factors.

South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative: Abstract digest August 2024

In this third edition of the South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative’s Abstract Digest, we present studies on global, regional, and country-specific evidence on various topics of nutrition. These include the impact of short birth intervals on child malnutrition in the Asia-Pacific region, a summary of lessons from program evaluations of food systems interventions for nutrition in South Asia, the effect of zinc supplementation in pregnant and lactating mothers in a three-country study, and a review of evidence on school meals, impact on nutrition, and their other evolving dimensions.

The peer-reviewed country-specific studies are on anemia among women in Bangladesh, the double burden of malnutrition among women of reproductive age in India, and reproductive and child health transitions in India. Other country-specific studies pertain to community-based and nutrition program and multi-sectoral community development interventions in Nepal, and utilization of an integrated child development services program in India.

This issue also includes studies focusing on methods, such as measures for coverage of nutrition-sensitive social protection programs, a systematic scoping review examining aspects of quantitative nutrition research engaging with the intersectionality of inequities, a protocol to develop a data repository to support interdisciplinary research into childhood stunting, and a concept exploratory study on empowerment among adolescent girls.

We also highlight the availability of an open-access dataset for an integrated food systems assessment, which includes a wealth of data collected from Bangladesh, India, and Nepal spanning climate adaptation, agricultural production, food purchasing and shopping practices, gender disparities in unhealthy eating, adolescent diets and aspirations, and much more!

Below is the list of articles. Please scroll down to explore the abstracts in the pages that follow. If this Abstract Digest was forwarded to you, we invite you to subscribe.

Happy reading!

Synopsis: Assessing agricultural extension agent digital readiness in Rwanda

The fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA IV) of the Government of Rwanda emphasizes extension and advisory services (EAS) as a priority area (MINAGRI 2018). In support of PSTA IV, the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI) began enhancing extension and advisory services by introducing a Customized Agriculture Extension System (CAES) (MINAGRI 2020). The CAES calls for ICT-supported extension services, stating that “ICT can revolutionize agriculture in Rwanda” (MINAGRI 2020: 34). Despite an enabling policy environment and Rwanda’s embracing of the ICT revolution, extension services have not taken advantage of the potential of ICTs (MINAGRI 2020). This paper looks at capacities of agricultural extension staff and the readiness of Rwandan public and private extension staff to use ICTs in their work—to be digitally equipped. A phone survey of 500 agricultural extension agents (EAs) was conducted in February and March 2021 across all districts of Rwanda among EAs in the public, private, and nonprofit sectors in Rwanda. We examine their demographics, education, and work backgrounds. To assess the ‘digital readiness’ of EAs, we assess the impacts of various factors on an EA’s digital experience and their attitudes toward digital modernization.

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model documentation for version 3.6

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is a robust tool for analyzing global and regional challenges in food, agriculture, and natural resources. Continuously updated and refined, IMPACT version 3.6 is the latest update to the model for continuously improving the treatment of complex issues, including climate change, food security, and economic development. IMPACT 3.6 multimarket model integrates climate, crop simulation, and water models into a comprehensive system, providing decision-makers with a flexible platform to assess the potential impacts of various scenarios on biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.

Synopsis: Enhancing smallholder farmers’ profitability through increased crop commercialization in Rwanda

This study analyzes the costs, returns, and profitability of smallholder agriculture in Rwanda using a gross margin approach (definitions are provided below) and reveals that over 80 percent of farmers generate positive gross economic margins. However, only around 40 percent achieve positive gross marketing margins from crop sales. This difference is directly attributable to the fact that two-thirds of production is directly consumed by households. The analysis further identifies that farm households allocate about 80 percent of their total crop input expenditures to fertilizer, seed, and hired labor, while the remaining expenses associated with fixed production costs that are almost exclusively related to land rental costs.

Furthermore, per hectare analysis reveals decreasing returns to scale for land size, disputing the notion that larger areas lead to efficiency gains. Instead, for example, smaller commercial farmers of less than 0.1 hectare, comprising 5.5 percent of our sample, sell over 50 percent of their crop value. Despite existing trends, this indicates that commercialization can take place on any size land holdings for relative income gains. Additionally, the study highlights the impact of factors like labor decisions and crop choice can significantly influence economic outcomes.

The findings suggest that smallholder farming remains economically viable in Rwanda, though market participation is somewhat limited. With appropriate support and risk mitigation, farmers of all land sizes can commercialize production, boost incomes, and enhance household welfare by reorienting towards higher-value market crops.

The effectiveness of cash and cash plus interventions on livelihoods outcomes: Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis

Over the last 20 years, a burgeoning scholarly literature has analyzed the effects of cash transfer and cash plus interventions in a wide range of contexts and using a range of empirical designs. We conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the pooled effect of any cash or cash plus intervention on livelihoods-related outcomes (consumption, income and labor supply), ultimately compiling 305 different treatment estimates from 155 treatment arms in 104 studies (and in 43 countries). Using random effects and multilevel models, our findings suggest that cash transfer programming is associated with an increase of between $1 and $2 in monthly household consumption and income per $100 in cumulative transfers, an effect that persists for a period of roughly three years (inclusive of the period of program implementation); this effect is meaningfully larger (as much as $4 larger) for cash transfer programs that also include a cash plus livelihoods intervention. There are no significant effects observed on labor force participation. We also present a range of estimates capturing the longer-term (cumulative) effects of cash transfers on consumption under alternate assumptions.

Designing gender- and youth-responsive agronomic solutions: accelerating the use of digital tools for delivering agronomic advice through a public-private partnership extension model in Rwanda

This report is part of a study series offering insights into the potential of Excellence in Agronomy (EiA) Use Cases to adjust the agronomic solutions offered through the Minimum Viable Products (MVP) to better reach, benefit, and empower women and
youths, and to transform norms that cause gender and social inequalities. These efforts are guided appropriately by the Reach-Benefit-Empower-Transform framework that highlights the importance of not only reaching women and young people, but also making sure that they benefit from any interventions, that the interventions further help increase their empowerment, and lead to a transformation of any restrictive attitudes, norms, and power relations that are the root causes of gender and social inequalities.

Costs and returns in Rwandan smallholder agricultural production: Gross margins and profitability analyses

This paper explores crop commercialization among smallholder agricultural households in Rwanda from a cost and revenue perspective to determine profitability at the farm level. We use standard revenue and cost equations to assess the commercial viability of the smallholders. In general, we find that a household’s total crop production creates positive returns even if implicit costs, such as own family labor and fertilizer subsidies, are included. Specifically, over 80 percent of our sample households generated positive economic returns from farming— referred to as demonstrating a positive gross economic margin (GEM). However, if only crop market sales and market input costs are used in the calculations, only 40 percent of agricultural households generated positive returns—referred to as demonstrating a positive gross marketing margin (GMM). Most of the explanation for this difference is that the typical farm household sells only about one-third of its crop production by value. This outcome suggests that many agricultural households continue to focus on cultivating food crops for their own consumption and do not specialize in commercial production. This is to be expected in an economic context where input, credit, and commodity markets are still developing, production decisions are still shaped by high levels of weather and market risk, and production risk management options are limited, among many other factors. The results of this research provide a better understanding of how Rwandan smallholders might move towards higher value production, with the ultimate goal being to increase household revenues and welfare and accelerate the country’s economic transformation.

Assessing agricultural extension agent digital readiness in Rwanda

Effective agricultural extension and advisory services are a key component of efforts to achieve sustainable agricultural production, resilient livelihoods, and inclusive economic growth. These are all necessary elements for accelerating Rwanda’s agricultural transformation. Both extension and information and communication technologies (ICT) are important elements in Rwanda’s Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation. This paper examines the capacities of public and private agricultural extension agents in Rwanda and their readiness to use ICT in their work—that is, to be digitally equipped—and provides recommendations for enhancing agricultural extension capacities through expanding and effectively using ICT.
To examine capacities and readiness, we use a representative survey of 500 public and private extension agents in Rwanda, augmented by qualitative data from a literature review and key informant interviews. To assess agents’ ‘digital readiness,’ we create two indices focused on their digital experiences and attitudes toward digital modernization.

Rural income diversification in Rwanda: Opportunities and challenges

The Government of Rwanda continues to work to accelerate structural transformation to expand and diversify the country’s economy. High rural population density and small agricultural landholdings are driving workers from agricultural households to seek employment outside of farming. Using representative data on agricultural production and employment for rural households in Rwanda from 2022, this research evaluates the opportunities rural households have to diversify their labor portfolios. We find that, rather than nonfarm household enterprises developing to meet greater rural service and goods demand, agriculture wage labor is the dominant source of off-own-farm employment. However, such informal agricultural wage labor is seen as low-productivity work and is among the lowest paid. Among nonfarm employment options, nonfarm businesses generate less income than nonagricultural wage labor, likely reflecting high barriers to entrepreneurship and low demand for off-farm services in rural areas.

In contrast to employment profiles from other low-income countries, we find that the probability of a worker from an agricultural household in Rwanda engaging in rural, off-farm wage labor decreases as household welfare increases. Agricultural households that have workers seeking to hire out their labor tend to have the smallest landholdings, while households that hire in labor have the largest landholdings. Additionally, households with a higher share of members who completed primary education are less likely to hire out their labor, especially for agriculture wage work. These results suggest that programs that offer support services to agricultural households, such as financial services and affordable and relevant education, may be important in incentivizing these households to engage in entrepreneurship and form their own businesses or to seek wage employment in more remunerative sectors than agriculture.

IFPRI's country programs: Facilitating country-led food systems transformation

In most low- and middle-income countries, agrifood systems constitute a sizable share of economic activity and serve as a primary source of livelihoods, especially for poorer members of the population. As a result, national development strategies frequently put strong emphasis on the agrifood sector to achieve key goals, such as accelerating economic growth, reducing poverty, improving food and nutrition security, and confronting climate change. This emphasis was confirmed at the 2021 United Nations Food Systems Summit, where more than 100 countries committed to transforming their food systems to make them more productive, nutrition-focused, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable, and it was further reinforced by the Food and Agriculture Declaration at COP28. To achieve these desired transformations, governments require data and research based evidence to assess the situation, identify solutions, and prioritize actions. Governments are also increasingly interested in enhancing institutional capacity to support country-led development pathways.

Measuring land rental market participation in smallholder agriculture can survey design innovations improve land market participation statistics?

The emergence of rural land rental markets in Sub-Saharan Africa is recognized as a key component of the region’s ongoing economic transformation. However, the evidence base on land market participation relies on survey-derived measures, which do not always cohere when compared and triangulated, suggesting the possibility of non-trivial measurement error. We report the results of a priming and list experiments designed to shed light on a persistent mystery in rural household survey data from Africa: why there are so many fewer self-reported landlords (renters-out) than tenants (renters-in)? Our design addresses two hypotheses using experimental data from Ethiopia. First, rented-out and rented-in land may be systematically underreported because enumerators and respondents are typically primed to emphasize parcels that are actively managed/cultivated by the household. Second, rented or sharecropped-out land may be systematically underreported because of respondents’ reluctance to acknowledge an activity for which public disclosure may have negative repercussions. We address the first hypothesis with a priming experiment by exposing a random subset of respondents to a nudge that explicitly reminded them to fully account for all land, including rented/sharecropped-in and rented/sharecropped-out. We address the second hypothesis with a double-list experiment, designed to elicit true rates of land renting and sharecropping-out. We find that nudging induces about 4 percentage points increase (or 13% in relative terms) in the share of households participating in renting in or sharecropping-in practices but has negligible effects on reported rates of renting and sharecropping-out. Interestingly, our list experiment indicates much higher revealed rates of renting-out (14-15%) than is reflected in the nominal parcel-roster responses (3%). The magnitude of the latter finding fully explains the apparent difference in renting in versus renting-out rates derived from the regular parcel roster responses. These results indicate that efforts to document land market participation rate and associated impacts must overcome large systematic reporting biases.

Plant-source foods: Leveraging crops for nutrition and healthy diets

Addressing the urgent need for food systems to support sustainable healthy diets will require a major improvement in the availability of and access to affordable, nutritious foods such as fruits, vegetables, and whole grains in low- and middle-income countries, along with increased consumer demand for healthy diets. Plant-source foods are key components of sustainable healthy diets. This chapter examines food crops that could be leveraged to improve health outcomes, describes production systems and their role in providing populations access to highly nutritious crops, and presents examples of evidence-based technologies that improve the nutritional content of crops, especially for vulnerable populations.

Diet affordability: Understanding the high cost of healthy diets

As new metrics of healthy diet affordability have been developed in the past five years, it is estimated that between 2 and 3 billion people worldwide — mostly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) — cannot afford a healthy diet. The implications for human nutrition are striking: affordability is a binding constraint to achieving a healthy diet in the world’s poorest countries. This chapter poses several questions to initiate strategic thinking on possible responses to this challenge and recommends actions to support shifts toward healthy diets in LMICs.

Real-time market price monitoring: Current dynamics in southern Rwanda

Recent collaborative CGIAR research has developed a prototype for tracking district-level costs of a healthy diet using monthly eSoko data.1 High frequency monitoring of diets allows for near real-time generation of insights on price impacts on diet costs. The temporal richness of this data allows for immediate analytics of current food system events. This research provides an analysis of district-level price movements of healthy diet compositions, as well as food prices that compose the diet. We use this prototype to demonstrate how eSoko data could be used for monitoring an economic shock and how to evaluate the effects in near real time. The general goal is to demonstrate a potential early warning system that could improve the menu of policy choices for enhanced resilience.

Regional developments [in 2024 Global Food Policy Report]

The regional section of the 2024 Global Food Policy Report examines the evolving problem of malnutrition—including undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, and overweight and obesity—in low- and middle-income countries across the world’s major regions. Policy interventions are highlighted that address the particular challenges and opportunities in each region, with recommendations that aim to transform food systems to make healthier, more diverse, and more sustainable diets available, affordable, accessible, and desirable for everyone, including the most vulnerable.

Africa:
Diverse diet and nutrition conditions in Africa call for targeted strategies to increase the supply, affordability, and consumption of healthy foods, especially for the most vulnerable. Addressing the high burden of micronutrient deficiencies and undernutrition in the region will require lever¬aging local, national, regional, and continental food systems to increase the supply and reduce the cost of nutritious foods. This regional section discusses the importance of contextualizing evidence-based multisectoral policy and program approaches, and strengthening people’s resilience and capacity to cope with global threats posed by climate change, conflicts, and other shocks to support a shift to sustainable healthy diets.

Middle East and North Africa:
To achieve sustainable healthy diets in the Middle East and North Africa, multifaceted policy approaches are needed to boost the resilience of food systems to frequent shocks, which raise food prices and affect diet quality. National policy responses need to consider the region’s double burden of malnutrition along with other vulnerabilities, including climate change, water scarcity, and conflict, as well as more effective targeting of social protection for the most vulnerable groups, and reform of food subsidies to improve diets.

Central Asia:
Food systems in Central Asia face serious challenges related to diet quality and nutrition. Obstacles include the high cost of a healthy diet, inadequate nutrition knowledge, unhealthy consumption habits, and domestic and regional policies. This regional section discusses the additional impact of climate change, unstable commodity markets, and a heavy reliance on remittances and undiversified trade flows, and highlights several policy interventions that have potential to transform Central Asian food systems.

South Asia:
In South Asia, where levels of malnutrition are high and rates of diet-related noncommunicable diseases are rising, a shift toward healthier, more sustainable diets will require allocating more resources to promote production and consumption of non-staple foods. This regional section explores “crop-neutral” policies that would allow farmers to respond to market sig¬nals and contribute to diversification in domestic food production that could also reduce poverty. Taxes on foods high in fat, sugar, and salt could help slow the rapid increase in consumption of these foods, and effective front-of-package labeling can promote healthy food choices.

East and Southeast Asia:
Major challenges to achieving sustainable healthy diets in East and Southeast Asia include poor food standards, lack of consideration of diets and health in trade policies, and changing food demand. This regional section highlights multi-duty policy actions that are needed to address the double burden of malnutrition and its drivers, including rapid urbanization, income growth, and environmental changes. Policy reforms must consider the needs and preferences of diverse populations in the region, support the agency of the most marginalized producers and consumers, and strengthen regional cooperation to make diverse, healthy food available and accessible for all.

Latin America and the Caribbean:
To achieve sustainable healthy diets, the Latin America and Caribbean region will require both demand- and supply-side solutions, as well as changes in food environments to increase demand for healthy foods. This regional section discusses the complex challenge of identifying the most effective policies and standards to tackle malnutrition and obstacles to accessing and affording healthy diets. It highlights the importance of clearly defining objectives, strengthening social protection programs, addressing the driv¬ers of obesity and overweight, and increasing the availability and affordability of nutritious foods, while maintaining and expanding the region’s crucial role in global food security and nutrition.

Review of global agricultural emission databases

Since the Industrial Revolution, the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) has consistently risen, leading to a 1.15°C increase in global mean temperatures by 2022. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirms human activities as the primary cause of global warming, with emissions continuing to rise. Climate change has resulted in adverse impacts on various fronts, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities. International efforts, including the United Nations Frame-work Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol, aimed at stabilizing green-house gas concentrations. These efforts were followed by the Paris Agreement in 2015, focusing on limiting global temperature increases and relying on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) from countries.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change mandates Countries to develop and regularly update national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. These inventories, aligned with IPCC methodologies, serve as crucial tools for transparent reporting, building mutual trust among countries for effective climate change agreements. National GHG inventories play a vital role in policy development, monitoring impact, and tracking progress toward achieving NDCs outlined in inter-national agreements, such as the Paris Agreement.

Varying capacities for GHG inventory development among developing and developed countries, coupled with diverse reporting requirements, create challenges in data comparability. Developed countries face rigorous annual submission requirements, producing comprehensive National Inventory Reports and Common Reporting Format tables. In contrast, developing countries submit their national GHG inventories through Biennial Update Reports (BURs), and flexibility is granted to Least Developed Country Parties (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) regarding submission timelines. The re-porting landscape is progressing, with the introduction of the biennial transparency report (BTR) for Paris Agreement Parties. The BTR, due by December 31, 2024, will convergence in methodologies be-tween countries.

Assessing the impact of rice price stabilization policies in Bangladesh: Results from a stochastic spatial equilibrium model

Rice plays a central role in the diet in Bangladesh and as a source of income for farmers. Although Bangladesh has largely liberalized international trade in rice, it maintains a public food distribution system to stablize prices, distributing an average of 2 million tons of rice per year at a cost of almost US$ 800 million per year. This study explores whether alternative policies could achieve similar stabilization at a lower cost. It uses a stochastic spatial-equilibrium model of rice markets to simulate monthly prices in eight regions of the country. Stochastic shocks are used to simulate fluctuations in regional production, replicating historical patterns at the region-season level, as well as inter-regional correlation in production shocks. It also simulates fluctuation in world rice prices, mimicking the mean, variance, and serial correlation of historical wholesale prices of rice in Delhi. Public procurement and distribution follow historic averages by month and region. Private storage is represented by a simplified version of rational expectations models, in which net storage is a non-linear function of availability in the previous month.

One set of simulations tests alternative levels of distribution, finding that cutting distribution to 1 million tons would have minimal effects on the level of rice price stability. Another set of simulations tested different import tariff levels, including the baseline rate of 25%1. We find that lower tariffs result in both lower rice prices and less price instability, as world rice prices tend to be more stable than local prices. Simulating a buffer stock with different price bands shows that a narrow band can achieve high price stability but at a high fiscal cost. A 20 T/kg (USD 0.26/kg) price band generates similar price stabilization at a lower cost compared to current policy. However, it is difficult to set the “right” purchase and sale price, and many simulations result in exhausting reserves or reaching warehouse capacity. An adaptive buffer stock, in which the price is adjusted as the stock runs too low or too high, solves some of these problems. In general, the study finds that current procurement and distribution patterns do not match well with the regional and monthly patterns of surplus and deficit, possibly reflecting multiple and conflicting goals of the public food distribution system.

Synopsis: Identifying farm typologies in Rwandan agriculture: A framework for improving targeted interventions

Research from a recent IFPRI agricultural survey indicates that there is a broad spectrum of commercial engagement by Rwandan farmers. While this continuum is important for understanding commercialization, grouping farmers by relevant commonalities further improves our knowledge of how different groups engage in markets. Moving beyond simple subsistence and commercialized farmer dichotomies, this study provides a more nuanced understanding by grouping smallholder farmers into types, or typologies, based on 35 common characteristics that are both consistent within these groups and relatively diverse between them. Specifically, this analysis identifies five types of Rwandan farmers, in two broad groups, that disaggregates rural households into meaningful categories for varied potential responses to economic opportunities as well as potential strategic interventions.

Synopsis: Agricultural Mechanization in Rwanda

Optimal agricultural mechanization strategies in Rwanda can be better informed by a closer assessment of diverse production environments and experiences in other countries with similar topography. The findings from Rwanda’s latest agricultural surveys, review of recent experiences in countries with rugged terrain and smallholder farming systems similar to Rwanda and reviewing mechanization support strategies from other countries suggest that identifying mechanization technologies suitable for different types of farms, promoting greater private-sector innovations while focusing on the relevant public goods aspect of mechanization is the most promising way forward. Key findings include the following:
• Variations in agroecology and cropping systems, irrigated/rainfed systems, farm size, and labor use intensity, among other factors, characterize the key types of mechanization use in Rwanda.
• In the medium term, smallholders cultivating rainfed maize and legumes, in addition to irrigated rice, can benefit from the use of tractors, as well as irrigation pumps.
• However, farm wages may still be too low and tractor-hiring fees may still be too high in Rwanda to induce a shift to mechanization in the short term.
• Policy support for mechanization can focus on improving the understanding of mechanization needs among each type of farmers identified, knowledge of suitable machines, and required skills for their operations and maintenance.
• Developing competitive markets and supply networks for promising machines, parts, and repair services at a viable and integrated market scale is also important.

Synopsis: Crop commercialization in Rwanda: Current market participation and drivers

As Rwanda emerges from the effects of COVID-19 and global price shocks caused by the Russia/Ukrainian conflict, there is an opportunity to focus on agricultural fundamentals to drive its economic transformation. One aspect of the transformation is how farm households are engaging in crop commercialization. This policy note outlines basic findings and suggested recommendations derived from a 2022 Rwandan commercialization household survey. Our basic unit of analysis is total crop sold divided by total value produced, averaged at either the household or individual crop level. Key findings include:
 Approximately 20% of our sampled smallholder households do not sell any crops. However, contrary to a subsistence/commercial farm dichotomy, most households sell on a broad continuum ranging from 1 – 100% with an average of 33% of their total crop production marketed.
 Crop value per hectare increases with greater marketed sales, indicating that farmers switch from lower value food crops (e.g. beans, cassava, maize) to cash crops such as fruits and vegetables where they market higher percentages.
 Crop value per hectare is not correlated with land size, revealing that crop choices drive value and not increasing land-related economies of scale. This finding underscores the pivotal role of crop selection in determining agricultural productivity and economic returns, rather than mere expansion of land holdings.
 Irrigation, land size, hiring labor and input purchases increase market participation as well as percentage of sales. Conversely, a larger family size has a negative effect on both.

Identifying farm typologies in Rwandan agriculture: A framework for improving targeted interventions

This paper explores the broad spectrum of commercial engagement by Rwandan farmers by grouping farmers according to characteristics of the head of household, the degree of commercialization of their farms, size of livestock holdings and other factors.

We use statistical methodologies, including factor and cluster analysis, combined with existing knowledge of the agricultural sector to define five types of Rwandan farmers, separated into two broad groups. The first group (Group A) includes three types broadly classified as less wealthy, less commercialized, with a net negative gross margin. Within this group the three types of farmers include: Type 1—Less commercialized older male headed households with larger families, Type 2—Better educated, youth headed households, who are more market oriented but have smaller land holdings, Type 3—Older female headed households who produce relatively lower agricultural production value relative to their assets owned.

The second group (Group B) comprises two types of farmers. This group are wealthier, sell more crops with positive gross margins and larger landholdings. More specifically, farm type 4 is commercialized with higher access to agricultural extension services and inputs and farm type 5, also highly commercialized, but has significant livestock holdings as well.

Taken together, these two groups, and five farm types, provide a framework to aid in understanding how commercialization takes place in smallholder Rwandan agriculture. This framework may also help in understanding how potential interventions would be received by various types of Rwanda farmers, thereby facilitating more efficient targeting of agricultural interventions.

Crop commercialization in Rwanda: Current market participation and drivers

In this paper, we explore the current levels and participation of crop commercialization by Rwandan smallholder farmers. Our basic unit of analysis is total crop sales divided by the total value of crop production, either at the household or specific crop level. Overall, our findings suggest that approximately 80 percent of farmers participate in crop market sales and sell an average of 33 percent of their total production. However, there is a wide variety of percentage sales by crop and, in general, higher-valued crops are sold by more commercialized farm households. We also find that value of crop production per hectare rises with greater commercialization, suggesting that developing greater market commercialization, particularly with more valuable crops, may increase household incomes and aid in the economic transformation.

2023 IFPRI annual report

IFPRI’s 2023 Annual Report offers highlights from our research around the world and of our analysis and communications on addressing global challenges that contribute to hunger and malnutrition. In 2023, IFPRI continued the critical work on crisis and resilience-building that began with the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and rising food prices. Our research also continued to inform policymakers and stakeholders on climate resilience and sustainability, healthy diets and nutrition, inclusive and efficient food systems, institutions and governance, and rural transformation, all with attention to gender and the world’s most vulnerable people, with the goals of reducing poverty and ending hunger and malnutrition.

Flagship report on policy coherence of food, land and water systems in Nigeria

The Sustainable Development Goals are interconnected and cut across Food, Land and Water (FLW) systems. But the formulation and implementation of national policy objectives to attain the SDGs may be fragmented and uncoordinated. The CGIAR Initiative on National Policies and Strategies (NPS), aims to contribute to agri-foods system transformation, by identifying ways of building stronger FLW policies with greater coherence and investment capacity, to support Nigeria in addressing current crises and future development needs. This flagship report focuses on (in)coherence in policies related to FLW systems in Nigeria, through the lens of Policies and Institutions Landscape Analysis Framework. To achieve policy coherence for sustainable development, the report highlights the need for: 1. strengthening staff and institutional capacities for FLW contextual and policy analysis to effectively identify, anticipate and respond to crisis. 2. developing systemic polycentric decision-making and governance, involving multi-stakeholders at the Federal, State and Local levels. 3. providing sustainable funding for the effective implementation of policy objectives, projects and programmes in the relevant FLW-related sectors 4. maintaining continuity of the implementation of ongoing transformative FLW policy objectives and programmes when an incumbent government comes into power. 5. promoting evidence-based (real time and high-quality data) policy formulation, monitoring, evaluation, and learning.

Agricultural mechanization policy options in Rwanda

This paper summarizes general demand- and supply-side issues for agricultural mechanization based on recent studies that focus on experiences and evidence from both Africa and Asia. The paper pro vides typologies of agricultural mechanization in Rwanda along with policy options within the context of its current mechanization support strategies. Provincial variations in agroecology and cropping systems, irrigated/rainfed systems, farm size, and labor use intensity, among other factors, characterize the key types of mechanization use in Rwanda. Support for mechanization in Rwanda can be broadly tailored to (a) irrigated medium-scale farmers in the Eastern province and Kigali; (b) rainfed medium-scale farmers in the Eastern and Southern provinces; (c) rainfed, small-scale highland farmers in the Northern province; and (d) irrigated small-scale farmers in the Western province. Recent experiences in other countries with rugged terrain and smallholder farming systems similar to Rwanda suggest that significant growth in the use of tractors is possible in the medium term among smallholders cultivating rainfed maize and legumes, in addition to irrigated rice. However, farm wages may still be too low in Rwanda and tractor-hiring fees may still be too high to induce a shift to mechanization in the short term. Therefore, it may be advisable for policy support for mechanization to focus on improving the understanding of mechanization needs among each type of farmers identified, knowledge of suitable machines, and required skills for their operations and maintenance. Such efforts should also balance the need to develop competitive markets and supply networks for promising machines, parts, and repair services at a viable and integrated market scale.

Synopsis: Rwanda smallholder agricultural commercialization survey: Overview using selective categorical variables

Increased commercialization of smallholder farmers is a major emphasis of Rwanda’s PSTA4 and will continue with PSTA5, as well as other policy documents related to agriculture. Although PSTA4 sought to increase the profitability of smallholder production, efforts to address accelerating commercialization were limited due to the absence of data and analysis on returns to commercial production systems. Relatively little was known about smallholder agricultural decision-making and the associated costs and returns to production systems among these farmers. This policy note introduces an important research initiative that will explore various aspects of commercialization by Rwandan smallholder farmers and is meant as a general introduction to smallholder commercialization. In subsequent research papers, more detailed studies based on these initial findings will contribute to an improved understanding of agricultural smallholders by providing (1) more nuanced analysis of commercial farmer typologies, (2) estimates of returns to commercial production systems across multiple farmers typologies, and (3) recommendations designed to improve interventions in smallholder commercialization.

This brief provides a summary of the results obtained from the 2022 Smallholder Farmer Commercialization Survey (IFPRI 2024). Designed to be representative at the national and provincial levels, ten households were surveyed in 202 villages resulting in a total of 2,020 interviewed households. The survey covered a wide range of topics including: 1) household demographics; 2) migration, household assets and house conditions, and shocks; 3) household farm characteristics; 4) household expenditures (consumption and non-consumption), and 5) household income sources. The survey instrument was developed using other IFPRI surveys and was referenced to the 2020 AHS and the 2016-2017 EICV5 surveys from NISR.

Livelihoods in Sudan amid armed conflict: Evidence from a national rural household survey

Analysis of a comprehensive survey of Sudanese rural households conducted from November 2023 to January 2024 by IFPRI and UNDP reveals significant socioeconomic impacts of the ongoing armed conflict on the Sudanese population, underscoring the need for immediate and targeted policy and programmatic interventions. The conflict has severely disrupted rural household incomes and exacerbated existing vulnerabilities related to their housing and access to infrastructure and services. Most households live in inadequate housing conditions, with disparities in access to water, electricity, and sanitation services posing additional challenges. Rural households’ low access to assets, including agricultural land, further complicates their livelihoods.

The conflict, primarily concentrated in urban areas, particularly Khartoum, has triggered mass migration, with significant numbers relocating to states like Aj Jazirah and Gedaref. These migrants, often from relatively better-off backgrounds, face substantial income losses, necessitating basic needs support and enhanced provision of public services, particularly for the large families that are more likely to migrate.

Agriculture, a critical sector for rural livelihoods, has been significantly affected across all states. Most households reported not cultivating land during the summer season of 2023 due to the conflict. The sharp reduction in the area of crops planted underscores the need for support for farming activities, particularly for smallholder households.

The survey highlights extensive exposure to shocks among rural households, with personal shocks, such as illnesses among household members, being the most common. Natural and climatic shocks, although less prevalent, alongside conflict-related shocks, like theft and violence, emphasize the complex challenges faced by these communities.

Market access and disruptions have further impacted rural households, with a considerable proportion of rural households unable to sell or buy goods, primarily due to high prices and sharp reductions in income for most households. These market challenges, coupled with the overall economic instability, necessitate interventions aimed at maintaining and improving market accessibility and functionality to promote recovery and resilience.

The findings from the analysis of the survey data lend support to designing and implementing comprehensive strategies that address the immediate needs of displaced populations and other rural households affected by income losses and market disruptions. Enhancing public services, supporting livelihoods, building resilience through shock-responsive social protection systems, agricultural and economic interventions, and ensuring equitable access to resources and markets for all households, particularly those headed by women and vulnerable groups, are the principal policy recommendations that emerged from this analysis.

This study of rural household livelihoods amid the armed conflict in Sudan provides a foundation for targeted interventions and policy reforms aimed at mitigating the conflict’s impacts and fostering long-term resilience and economic stability.

Assessing the vulnerability of national food security to international food price shocks: A new index

Recent spikes in staple food prices resulting from the invasion of Ukraine have once again highlighted the difficulty faced by low-income countries that rely on imports for a substantial portion of their food supply. To better understand which countries are most affected by higher world food prices, we propose a food import vulnerability index (FIVI). One version of the index describes the vulnerability of each country to higher world prices for each of 15 major staple foods. Another version of the FIVI is a national index, aggregating across the 15 commodities. Both are based on three components, the caloric contribution of the commodity(ies) in the national diet, the dependence on imports, and the level of moderate and severe food insecurity in the country. The values of the FIVI are calculated for 2020, the most recent year for which data are available.

The results indicate that countries are most adversely affected by increases in the world price of wheat, rice, and maize, followed by sugar, and vegetable oil. This is because the five commodities listed are both major contributors to the diet in many countries and because countries often depend on imports for a large share of the domestic requirements of these foods. Yemen, Djibouti, and Afghanistan are most vulnerable to increases in world wheat prices, while Liberia, Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau are particularly vulnerable to spikes in rice prices. In the case of maize, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and Eswatini have the highest vulnerability score. These results should help policymakers and development partners target their efforts to reduce food import vulnerability through policies and programs to strengthen resilience.

Pakistan: A cost-benefit analysis of crop rotation practice in rainfed areas

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges confronting our global system today. The scientific community has clearly established that global temperatures are rising and the consequences of climate change may swiftly transition from an environmental risk to an economic threat. Agriculture sector is particularly vulnerable to changes in weather and climatic condition. Over 60% of the yield variability is chalked up to to climate change; significantly affecting food production and farmer income. Changes in climate affect the onset and duration of crop growing cycle, and the extent and duration of heat and water stress impact agriculture production. Moreover, it may trigger pest and disease outbreaks causing significant production losses. Small-scale farmers in rain-fed areas of Pakistan face the severe susceptibility to the challenges brought about by climate change. This vulnerability stems from their heavy dependence on traditional farming methods and their limited ability to adapt, exacerbated by their limited access to advanced technologies and high levels of poverty. Worldwide, crop yields from rainfed farming are approximately 50 percent less than those achieved through irrigated methods. In the absence of adaptation measures to cope with climate change, a potential decline of around 50 percent in rain-fed agricultural yields could potentially occur within the next 30-35 years. Promoting climate smart agricultural practices appears to be a dependable strategy for addressing risks posed by climate change.

Fertilizer subsidies in Malawi: From past to present

Malawi has been at the center of the debate on agricultural input subsidies in Africa ever since it significantly expanded its fertilizer subsidy program about two decades ago. When it did so, Malawi was a trailblazer, receiving international attention for seemingly leveraging the subsidy program to move the country from a situation characterized by food deficits and widespread hunger to crop production surpluses. In this paper we trace the history of Malawi’s subsidy program over the past 70 years, describing how the country arrived at that watershed moment earlier this century and how the subsidy program has developed since. We show how donor support for the program has wavered and how external pressure to remove the subsidy has repeatedly been unsuccessful. We also demonstrate how over the years the program’s total fiscal burden has fluctuated significantly. However, we find that since the expansion of the subsidy program in 2004, the fiscal costs of the program have shown little correlation with the maize harvest that same agricultural season. We show that the subsidy program has succeeded in raising awareness about the value of the fertilizer for increased crop productivity. However, despite its continued prominence in the country’s agricultural policy, most Malawian smallholder do not manage to grow sufficient maize to feed their households throughout the year, and every year millions depend on food assistance during the worst months of the lean season.

Small-scale irrigation protects farmers from climate-extreme events: Insights from the 2015/2016 ENSO in Ethiopia

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather event of 2015/16 caused severe drought conditions in northern and central Ethiopia affecting the welfare of millions of farmers in late 2015 and early 2016. Using nationally representative panel data collected in 2012 and 2016 and recent advances in the difference-indifferences literature, this paper explores the effects of the 2015/16 drought and the potential role of irrigation in reducing the adverse effects of the drought. We find that the drought caused, on average, a 37 percent reduction in net annual crop income, an 8 percent decline in area cultivated, a 3 percent decline in household dietary diversity score, and a 10 percent decline in the share of harvest sold for rainfed farmers. On the other hand, irrigating farmers affected by the drought managed to increase their daily expenditures by 72 percent of their average daily food expenditure in the pre-drought period, and maintained their net crop income, size of cultivated land, household dietary diversity, and share of harvest sold to the market. Overall, while rainfed agricultural producers suffered sharp declines in welfare, those farmers with access to irrigation maintained their economic status. The results suggest that irrigation protected farmers from the adverse effects of the 2015/16 ENSO event and given increasing climate variability in Ethiopia, the government should intensify its investment and support to irrigation development in the country.

Double-booked: Effects of overlap between school and farming calendars on education and child labor

Overlap between school and farming calendars—pervasive in agrarian settings—constrains children’s time for both activities, potentially forcing trade-offs between schooling and child labor. Using shift-share estimation, I study an exogenous shift to overlap between school and crop calendars in Malawi, weighted and aggregated by communities’ pre-policy crop shares, matched to panel data on school-aged children. From pre- to post-policy, a five-day (i.e., one school-week) increase in overlap during peak farming periods decreases children’s school advancement by 0.14 grades—one lost grade for every seven children—while only resulting in 3.9 percent fewer children working on the household-farm. Policy simulations show how adapting the school calendar to minimize overlap with peak farming periods can be an effective strategy to increase school participation.

Opportunities for innovation and intervention in Uganda’s dairy value chain: A scoping report

This report is generated as part of a scoping study to identify possible areas that should be prioritized for intervention to improve performance and sustainability of the dairy industry in Uganda. The evaluation relies on primary and secondary data collected by IFPRI and DDA in 2021. Ten primary datasets are used for the results informing the several interventions and secondary data relies on literature review and Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) dataset. The results underline five issues namely low productivity, low milk quality, and constrained markets. Low productivity is associated with production systems that undermine pasture improvement, disease control and animal health, yet these are primary drivers of milk output notwithstanding breed and effects of climate shocks. Secondly, milk production practices are directly linked to milk quality and low milk quality has negative chain effect on productivity/performance of all actors in the dairy value chain with consequence of low competitiveness of Uganda’s dairy products. The evidence suggests that there is need to explore new approaches to improve productivity and innovations in design of interventions in a holistic value chain approach to improve market performance. To improve production, innovations in livestock management and animal health coupled with milk volume (MV) based rewards are proposed. To improve milk quality, the establishment of qualitybased incentives are proposed.

Pakistan: Strategy to promote climate smart agriculture practices

Pakistan is a case of double injustice contributing a minuscule share of global greenhouse gases, yet it is bearing the brunt of global climate change impacts. It ranks among the top 10 countries vulnerable to climate change (Eckstein et al., 2021). The 2022 IPCC Report underlines the heightened vulnerabilities because of global warming and climate change leading to more floods. The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 20221, Pakistan could lose more than 9 percent of its annual GDP due to climate change. The Notre Dame- Gain Matrix2 ranks Pakistan 5th most impacted country by climate change shocks and is positioned as the 36th least-prepared nation to cope with climate changes (The World Bank Group, 2021). Besides, Pakistan scores worst on the indicator of Agriculture Capacity3 at 0.939. Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate changes because of its arid to semi-arid environmental conditions (Nasim et al., 2018; Ullah et al., 2019, Ghaffar et al., 2022). Over the last two decades, the country has been facing the challenges of rising temperature, extreme heatwaves, drought, intense and erratic precipitation, water stress, glacial melting, recurring flash floods and super floods in 2010 and 2022. The combination of reduced crop yields, water scarcity, and changing agricultural practices can lead to severe food insecurity and economic challenges for marginalized communities and more importantly, for farmers. In July-August 2022, Pakistan faced unprecedented rainfall and riverine floods damaging cultivated crops, livestock and the infrastructure. Approximately 4.4 million acres of crops were damaged, and nearly 1 million animals perished. The total cost of damages and losses was estimated at $30.13 billion, with agriculture accounting for $12.9 billion (43 percent of the total) (Economic Survey of Pakistan, 2021-22).

Smallholder Agriculture Commercialization in Rwanda, 2022

This dataset pertains to a survey on smallholder commercialization conducted in Rwanda during October and November of 2022. The primary objective of this study is to enhance data and analysis regarding the returns associated with commercial smallholder production systems and policies aimed at supporting smallholder commercialization.

The data were collected from a nationally and provincially representative households’ sample of 2,020 rural smallholder agricultural households selected from five provinces. The survey focused on various key data points, including household demographics, farm and nonfarm assets, farm characteristics (such as land use, crop production, inputs usage, participation in agricultural programs, livestock, etc.), household expenditures and incomes, labor utilization, and other relevant factors throughout the agricultural year of 2022.

Key principles for country theory of change for food systems transformation anchored in CAADP strategic and action plan (2026-2035)

Africa is at a pivotal moment in its journey toward achieving sustainable agricultural development, food security, and climate resilience. Agriculture, which employs over 60% of the continent’s population, plays a critical role in economic growth and poverty reduction. Yet, Africa’s food systems are under pressure from multiple challenges, including widespread food insecurity, malnutrition, environmental degradation, and vulnerability to climate change. Despite two decades of significant advancements through the implementation of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), the continent faces complex issues that demand a more transformative and systemic approach to agricultural development. The latest Africa Union 4th CAADP Biennial Review Report shows that none of the Member States are on-track towards achieving the CAADP Malabo commitments by 2025. The continent is doing particularly poorly on the ending hunger commitment, with none of the countries on-track towards
achieving access to agriculture inputs and technologies, agricultural productivity, and food security and nutrition. The 2024 Africa Food Systems Forum (AFSF) saw a greater commitment from global leaders, Africa Heads of States, private sector, civil society, and international organizations to scale up investment in the transformation of Africa’s food systems to ensure food and nutrition security in Africa while creating jobs and opportunities youth and women. The year also saw intensification of engagements around the Post-Malabo discussion which have seen a strategic shift towards as a broader agri-food systems approach.

Integrating Gender in Cost-Benefit Analysis of Innovations to Enhance Smallholder Farmers’ Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation

Resilient Cities Urban Country Profile: Rwanda

Rwanda is one of the most densely populated countries in Africa. National strategies aim to eliminate chronic malnutrition by 2050. Overall, the country is on track for global nutrition targets for child wasting, overweight and recommended breastfeeding practices. However, there are differences in nutrition challenges between rural and urban areas. The dominance of the agricultural economy at the national level, higher poverty and stunting rates in rural areas has led to a greater focus on promoting food and nutrition security in rural areas.

Integrated simulation framework for the impacts of large dams: Example of the GERD

Efficient water resources management is essential for the sustainable development of nations, and large dams are an important tool for achieving this endeavor. Here, we present an integrated approach to simulating the impacts of large dams, integrating river systems infrastructure, hydrodynamic, and economywide models. We apply the framework to examine the biophysical, GDP, and distributional impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on Sudan.

Gender and food systems in Kenya: A case study of the poultry value chain in eastern Kenya

Women are key stakeholders in sustainable and resilient food systems, given their roles as primary food producers and household caretakers (Visser and Wangu 2021). Understanding how gendered roles affect food security and women’s well-being is essential for pursuing sustainable development (Angel-Urdinola and Wodon 2010; Doss, Meinzen-Dick, and Quisumbing 2018; Meinzen-Dick et al. 2019). Their participation in agriculture is documented widely, but there is a need for more gendered data on the roles of men and women in different contexts and agricultural value chains, including livestock value chains (Micere Njuki et al. 2016; Richardson 2018; Doss and Rubin 2021; Njuki et al. 2021). This file also includes the introduction to Part Five.

Youth engagement in agriculture and food systems transformation in Kenya

Food systems incorporate many actors at different intersecting levels and spaces. Young people1 constitute one of the most significant groups of these actors and contribute significantly to food systems in a variety of ways, from agricultural production and processing to food-related retail services, through formal and informal employment, paid and unpaid labor, and self employment. In addition to engaging through work and livelihoods, young people are involved in research, conservation, and knowledge acquisition and transmission. They also participate in consumer pressure groups and social movements raising awareness on the need for food system transformation and demanding climate change action. Through all these contributions, young people support achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal targets such as those on food security, economic growth, poverty reduction, and environ mental sustainability (HLPE 2021; FAO and AUC 2022).

Agricultural inputs in Kenya: Demand, supply, and the policy environment

Agricultural inputs, including fertilizers, seeds, breeding stock, crop protection chemicals, machinery, irrigation, and knowledge, are key to innovation and productivity improvement, and are the backbone of any agricultural revolution. They are an integral part of the food supply chain, which comprises the production and distribution of food, and as such a key component of the food system (HLPE 2017). The food supply chain involves various actors at different stages of the chain but this chapter focuses only on agricultural inputs, including both farm inputs and agricultural advisory services.

Assessing the resilience of Kenya's food system: A production approach

A food system includes all elements (environment, people, inputs, processes, infrastructures, institutions, etc.) and activities that relate to the production, processing, distribution, preparation, and consumption of food, and the outputs of these activities, including socioeconomic and environmental outcomes (HLPE 2017). Thus, a food system links society and nature (Blesh and Wittman 2015). Resilience is “the ability of people, households, communities, countries and systems to mitigate, adapt to, and recover from shocks and stresses in a manner that reduces chronic vulnerability and facilitates inclusive growth” (USAID 2018). Applied to food systems, resilience is defined by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) as the ability to withstand major shocks and stressors emanating from climate/weather, conflict, disease, external economic shocks, and other sources, which, if not prevented or mitigated, would delay, or limit economic progress, transformation, prosperity, and self-reliance (AGRA 2021). In this sense, resilience of a food system may be considered a system property that plays a critical role in its sustainability (Jacobi et al. 2018), thus ensuring sustained food security. This chapter adopts this definition with the objective of assessing the resilience of Kenya’s food system and its components using systemwide metrics. Specifically, we use a production approach based on input–output linkages.

This file also includes the introduction to Part Four.

Men can cook: Effectiveness of a light-touch men’s engagement intervention to change attitudes and behaviors in rural Ethiopia

Graduation model interventions seek to address multiple barriers constraining households’ exit from poverty, however, few explicitly target unequal gender norms. Using a randomized control trial design, combined with three rounds of data, we investigate the impacts on gender equitable attitudes and behaviors of a graduation program that seeks to simultaneously “push” households out of poverty and improve unequal gender norms in Ethiopia. We find that at midline all treatment arms lead to improvements in men’s gender equitable attitudes and their engagement in household domestic tasks as reported by both men and women; but at endline, impacts are only sustained in the treatment arms that introduced men’s engagement groups after the midline survey to further promote improvements in equitable gender norms.

Including scalable nutrition interventions in a graduation model program: Experimental evidence from Ethiopia

We explore the impact of different models of scalable nutrition services embedded within a light-touch graduation program, implemented at scale in Ethiopia. The graduation program provided poor households enrolled in Ethiopia’s national safety net, the Protective Safety Net Program (PSNP), with additional livelihood programming including savings groups, business skills training and linkages to financial services. In addition, extremely poor households received a one-time livelihood grant on an experimental basis, as cash transfers or in-kind poultry grants, at a value much smaller than lump sum transfers in other graduation model programs in recent literature. The experiment compared a core nutrition model of nutrition information and sanitation and hygiene activities to an enhanced model that added more intensive nutrition messaging, supplementary feeding of malnourished children, mental health services, and a male engagement activity. Results show that interaction with health care workers and participation in community health activities increased significantly under the enhanced nutrition model, as did maternal nutritional knowledge. Nevertheless, neither nutrition model led to significant improvements in child dietary diversity or anthropometric outcomes on average. However, cash livelihood grants combined with the enhanced nutrition model reduced childhood stunting.

Investing in science, technology, and innovation for sustainable, productivity-led agricultural growth

A forensic framework and decision support system for harmonized and holistic food system resilience and sustainability analysis

Today, many innovative food system transformation programs are taking place in several parts of the world, including developing, and low-income countries as well as those in Africa south of the Sahara (Benfica et al. 2023). Notably, in Africa, food systems are at a crossroads, facing several endogenous and exogenous shocks and stressors. Approximately 282 million people in Africa are undernourished, with a prevalence of 22.8 percent as measured by the prevalence of undernourishment, a Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicator (FAO et al. 2017; Agyemang and Kwofie 2021). Furthermore, continuous floods and droughts in many parts of the continent have reduced food security and calorie intake, respectively, by 5–20 percent and 1.4 percent below 2019 levels (Balgah et al. 2023). By 2050, climate change is anticipated to slow the fight against hunger, with an estimated 78 million people in Africa projected to experience chronic hunger in addition to the current numbers (Hasegawa et al. 2018). The individual and combined effects of external shocks and stressors on the African food system, including climate change, soil degradation, price fluctuations, political conflict, and widespread fragility, have created a complex risk environment that threatens food security and the overall well-being of many Africans. Against the above background, there is a consensus within the scientific and policy advocacy community that the African food system is flawed.

2023 ATOR: The call for nutrition-smart food systems

A shift from agriculture to manufacturing was one of the hallmarks of job creation, poverty reduction, and rapid growth in low-income countries during the latter half of the 20th century. This experience in earlier decades of structural transformation was characterized by labor-absorbing, productivity-increasing manufacturing. Recent structural change in African countries has been markedly different—productivity gains are realized through reallocation of economic activity away from agriculture without the accompanying within-sector productivity growth in nonagriculture, and manufacturing in particular (Diao, McMillan, and Rodrik 2019; Diao et al., 2021; McMillan and Zeufack 2022). This chapter examines the extent to which agrifood processing follows these trends.

Committing to transform food systems: Responsiveness of food systems transformation pledges by African governments to the WHO priority food systems policies and food-related CAADP biennial review performance categories

For several decades, Africa’s food security situation has been dire. However, that dire state has recently been complicated by rising rates of overweight and obesity and other diet-related noncommunicable diseases. By 2030, noncommunicable diseases are predicted to become the leading cause of death on the continent amid other pandemic and economic challenges. Several interventions have been deployed to address the emerging challenges. African heads of state and government have been committing, declaring, pledging, and developing national and regional nutrition strategies, and they have envisioned the Africa they would want by 2063—the African Union’s Agenda 2063. Other actions include commitments made as part of the 2021 United Nations Food Systems Summit. With less than a decade to go to meet the 2030 agenda for transforming food systems in a sustainable way, we must ask whether these new commitments and recommitments can fulfill that promise. In this chapter, we assess the responsiveness of some African nations’ commitments to (1) the World Health Organization’s food priority policy actions, and (2) select Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme Biennial Review performance categories. Both actions are touted as game changers—actions that have the potential to pave the way for the needed changes in Africa’s food systems.

Conclusion: Toward resilient and sustainable African food systems

The 2023 ATOR aims to inform the design of the post-Malabo phase of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). The comprehensive discussions provided in this report offer a multifaceted blueprint to transform Africa’s food systems in the post-Malabo era. From the in-depth analysis of the implementation challenges and successes of the Malabo Declaration to the exploration of cutting-edge approaches in bioeconomy and technology, this volume paves the way for a holistic and inclusive approach to food systems transformation in Africa. The findings underscore that while significant progress has been made in certain areas, such as the implementation of the CAADP/Malabo agenda, considerable challenges remain. These challenges are multidimensional, involving policy, institutional, and infrastructural barriers, and will need to be addressed with evidence-based, sustainable, and inclusive policies and practices.

Food system diagnostics and policy implications: The Malawi case

Food systems are at the heart of Africa’s economic growth and development plan, Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want. Without ending hunger and improving the food and nutrition status of Africa’s population, the agenda’s first aspiration for a “prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development” cannot be effectively reached. To realize this aspiration, African countries need to progressively implement the seven Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) Malabo commitments while having strategies to address wider food system challenges (AU 2023). The concept of a food system has various definitions, but for the purposes of this chapter, a food system is considered as a network of actors or players and their activities along the entire food value chain from inputs to production, distribution, and consumption. This aligns with the definition espoused by the Scientific Group of the UN Food Systems Summit (UNFSS), that food systems are constitutive of food actors and their interlinked activities from production all the way to consumption or utilization (von Braun et al. 2020).

Tracking key CAADP indicators and implementation processes

2023 marks two decades since the 2003 launch of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), a continentwide framework for agriculture-led development. The implementation of CAADP has coincided with a period of strong agricultural and economic growth across Africa. CAADP has been credited with galvanizing increased recognition by the international community of the key role agriculture plays in broader economic development on the continent (Benin et al. 2018). After the first decade of implementation, the CAADP agenda was deepened through the 2014 Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods (AUC 2014). Through the Malabo Declaration, African leaders recommitted to the principles and values of CAADP, including evidence-based planning, dialogue, and review, and reaffirmed the original CAADP targets of achieving 6 percent annual agricultural growth and 10 percent of public expenditures being directed to agriculture. The 2014 Declaration further expanded the CAADP commitments to include sharply reducing hunger and poverty, expanding intra-continental trade, building resilience to the adverse effects of climate change, and strengthening mutual accountability for CAADP-focused actions and results to advance agricultural transformation in Africa. The CAADP Biennial Review was designated as the operational tool to monitor the progress of African countries toward achieving these commitments.

Introduction [in African food systems transformation and the post-Malabo agenda]

This year marks 20 years of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which was launched with the Maputo Declaration in 2003. With CAADP, African leaders committed to promoting agricultural growth as a key catalyst of broader economic development. After the first decade of CAADP implementation, characterized by strong agricultural and economic growth across the continent, the CAADP agenda was broadened under the 2014 Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods. The Malabo Declaration reaffirmed the commitments of African heads of state to the original CAADP targets of achieving a 6 percent agricultural growth rate and a 10 percent agricultural expenditure share, while adding further commitments to be achieved by 2025 in areas including nutrition, poverty, resilience, and trade.

Bioeconomy: A path to African food system transformation